Anzejs Pasecniks is slowly becoming the 2017 NBA Draft’s best center prospect
Anzejs Pasecniks has been slowly climbing up draft boards all season. The 7-foot-2 Latvian center is currently playing in Spain with Herbalife Gran Canaria, and has steadily worked his way into the rotation for one of Eurocup’s best teams. Pasecniks started the year as a bench player, playing about 10 minutes per game over the team’s first nine contests. But he consistently worked his way into the rotation, earning his first start against Obradoiro in the ACB on Nov. 12, and earning a stretch of ACB starts during December due to injuries.
Pasecniks is now up to 14.3 minutes per game for the season, and in the last month has emerged as Gran Canaria’s first big off the bench. This improvement has grabbed the attention of scouts, who have moved him from fringe draft prospect into the first round of Draft Express’s latest mock draft.
Pasecniks has been on international scouting radars for awhile, but only just now has burst through as a viable NBA prospect. Part of this is due to exposure — Pasecniks cut his teeth at VEF Riga, Latvia’s best domestic league team. While he performed well in junior competitions, he struggled to earn minutes in Riga’s more high-profile Eurocup and VTB League games. A move to Gran Canaria last season gave him a chance to get more exposure in Eurocup and ACB games, but he again struggled to get time, playing just 10 games in 2015-16 and averaging 3.1 points and 1.8 rebounds.
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This year is his first year getting consistent rotation minutes at the domestic and international level.
With those minutes, he’s been excellent. Pasecniks is averaging 6.8 points and 2.9 rebounds per game, and posting a strong 5.0 block rate. He’s looking like a potentially elite finisher, shooting 67.2 percent from the field, mostly on attempts in the restricted area. He has been very useful setting screens for Gran Canaria’s elite guards, like Kyle Kuric and Bo McCalebb, and has even hit 6-of-13 3-pointers. He posted perhaps his best game of the season on Tuesday in Eurocup, helping Gran Canaria beat Lokomotiv Kuban 68-66 with a 12-point, 4-rebound effort, shooting a perfect 6-of-6 from the field.
Pasecniks’s biggest strength in this draft is size. The 2017 NBA Draft will likely be one short on centers at the top end, and Pasecniks is one of the few available with traditional big size. Standing at 7-foot-2 with long arms and a wiry frame, Pasecniks certainly looks the part of a center. He uses that frame well when rebounding, as he’s able to reach over most European centers for tip-ins and contested boards.
Pasecniks combines size with gazelle-like mobility, both in the open court and the halfcourt. His long strides help him blow by defenders when he has space, and he can be a freight train barreling down the lane with the ball in his hands. He’s thrown down more than a couple rim-rattlers this season, in transition and off of simple pick-and-rolls.
But he’s also skilled at quick-start movements that can free him up in tighter spaces. He’s a fairly solid cutter, with good awareness and mobility to capitalize on defensive mistakes.
Pasecniks is able to use that mobility well on the defensive end. While he’s not an elite rim protecting prospect yet, only averaging 1.9 blocks per 40 minutes, Pasecniks has shown the athleticism to be able to cover the ground necessary to be a shot-blocking factor at the NBA level. Length is one thing, but even if you don’t have elite instincts and timing, being able to make this cross-paint move to block a shot helps:
Pasecniks has also shown the mobility to be a good pick-and-roll defender. He can cover a lot of ground quickly, moves fluidly and contains penetration acceptably for a guy his size. While his defensive instincts and awareness are continuing to develop, he definitely has the athletic tools to be a factor on the defensive end.
Pasecniks rolls out the basic package of an NBA center with the combination of mobility and size. So why isn’t he getting more love as a first round prospect? Apart from being a late-blooming international prospect, he suffers from a unique problem — his size is also a weakness.
Being 7-foot-2 with great mobility is clearly a plus but he weighs in at just 220 pounds, far below average for an NBA center. Even the thinnest centers will clock in around 235-240 pounds, and he has only just reached his current weight in the past year. Being thin has caused issues for centers early on in their NBA careers, such as John Henson and Nerlens Noel, and thin European players like Dragan Bender routinely get stuck playing down a position due to this concern.
Pasecniks occasionally does run into strength issues at the European level. His post game isn’t very well developed, and he doesn’t command positioning well on the block. Send a double, and he looks to bail quickly.
Given his fundamental issues down low, Pasecniks hasn’t gotten many chances here, as he’s much more valuable to the Gran Canaria offense as a PNR big. Note how he doesn’t even look to spin towards the hoop, despite having a clear path against a smaller defender.
While strength is a concern, he’s finding ways to create impact despite this. As mentioned before, Pasecniks still is an acceptable rebounder, posting a defensive rebound rate of 18.3 percent this season. While he can get moved out of position under the hoop, his length helps him compensate, and he is mobile enough that he can correct course quickly and create leverage by forcing opponents off balance. He also uses his hands well when battling for position, such as on this offensive rebound where he gets Ryan Broekhoff off-balance and sheds him easily:
Pasecniks has strong offensive awareness, too, moving with purpose off the ball to create positions for him to get away from contact around the rim.
While Pasecniks isn’t strong enough to power through significant contact yet, he’s still a great finisher due to his finesse around the rim. He has strong body control, which gives him a lot of wiggle room to finish around an opponent that meets him in the paint.
He’s an ambidextrous finisher, capable of hitting these softer finishing moves with either hand. That’s a genuine asset as a 21-year-old big, as many NBA big men struggle to finish with their off hand early in their careers. His touch also gives hope that he could eventually be a good post scorer despite his lack of strength.
Pasecniks may have some stretch capabilities, with a strong shooting motion that is slow but high. After a few very trial-and-error years (he hit just 2-of-28 from the perimeter in 2014-15), Pasecniks has hit 6-of-13 from outside this season, and is locking down a consistent elbow release after years of fine-tuning.
Strength may limit Pasecniks early on as an NBA player. He’s probably too wiry to battle with guys like DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond at this point, and this is what is keeping him from being a true rim protector. But he’s found ways to compensate for a lack of strength, particularly offensively, which should help him be effective at the NBA level once he matures into an NBA body.
As we’ve seen with Rudy Gobert in Utah, you can make it at 7-foot-2 with even just 10 more pounds than Pasecniks is currently at if you have ways to work around the lack of strength. For Gobert, it’s his insane leaping ability and twitch instincts that negate the fact he’ll get pushed around for rebounds. For Pasecniks, it will likely be his finesse finishing and smooth lateral mobility that allow him to overcome the limitations of his frame.
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Pasecniks has a good chance of topping out as an elite pick-and-roll dive man who can occasionally step out and hit a jumper, and offers plus rim protection and rebounding to boot. In this draft class, that will put him in the upper tier of big men. If he can continue to show improvement at the tail-end of the season in his shooting, strength and awareness, don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the mid-first round, much like Ante Zizic did last season.