Checking in on the NBA’s statistical outliers

It’s hard to believe we’ve already crossed the halfway point of a pro basketball season that can often be viewed as a battle of attrition, but here we are with All-Star events and trade deadlines creepin’ on a comeup. And if we’re worth our weights in hoop writing, then we have to continue what we started back in December and check-in on our statistical outliers, our wunderkinds chasing history in all its unique statistical forms.

We have a few additions to December’s glory hounds and I’ll list those at the top:

Isaiah Thomas assist rate and turnover rate: Thomas is having a truly beautiful season scoring the ball at high volumes and ridiculous efficiencies. Lost amidst the echo chamber of basketball Twitter decrying the consideration of Thomas as league MVP is that beyond his scoring, Thomas has put together a masterfully efficient season as Boston’s lead guard. As of this writing, Thomas is the only player in league history with an assist-rate greater than 33 percent and a turnover rate 10 percent or lower. What a guy, what a Celtic, what a Washingtonian.

Brook Lopez and giants shooting 3s: They say the sun doesn’t shine in Brooklyn anymore. That’s not true, I doubt anyone says that and if they do, they’re not talking about the Brooklyn Nets professional basketball team. In what is most definitely a cultural basketball revolution in the borough of Brooklyn, they’re now one of the league leaders in 3-point attempts, led by Stanford’s own Brook Lopez. Coming into the season, Lopez had attempted all of 31 3s and made just three for a whopping rate of less than 10 percent. But now Lopez is gunnerific, hoisting up 5.1-attempts-per-game and hitting at a 34 percent clip. While we know the league has metamorphosed into a universe of long distance specialists, Lopez is the first player in league history to be 7-feet or taller and jack more than five 3s per game. Brook Lopez, blazing trails through Brooklyn.

Read More: What’s the deal with Austin Rivers?

The 30-60 club: Nothing says “bad-ass efficiency and offensive accountability” like a true shooting percentage over 60 accompanied by a usage rate above 30 percent. Well, maybe some things say it better than that, but the 30-60 club is often-aspired for, but rarely achieved. Prior to this season, it had been accomplished 17 times by eight players. Steph Curry did it last year, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan did it four times while Karl Malone, Shaq, Larry Bird, and James Harden had done it once.

This season, we somehow have three stars flirting with it as the aforementioned Thomas appears to be a lock at 34-62, as does Harden at 34-61. Much to the likely dismay of the league’s unofficial conscience and official San Antonio head coach, Greg Popovich, big-hand having Kawhi Leonard is here too at 30.5-62. Of course, everyone loves offensive efficiency, but knowing what we know of Pop, one player using 30 percent of the team’s possessions is sub-optimal. For reference, in all his years with the club, Pop has only coached a single player to a +30 percent usage — Tony Parker in 2008-09.

Kevin Durant scoring a lot while taking few shots: When we last checked in with Durant, he was averaging over 27 points on less than 17 field goal attempts per game; a threshold only surpassed once in recorded league history when Charles Barkley scored over 28 points on just 16 attempts per game. This doesn’t mean Durant is a peasant who should be ostracized and humiliated, it just means that instead of sitting at a table-for-two with the Round Mound of Barkley, he’s occupying a table for seven guys and is only the second active player (James Harden in 2013-14) to go for at least 25 on 17-or-less shots.

25-points-per-game: When we last met, 10 players had crossed the 25-point threshold; a volume of players that had been reached just two other times in league history. We know offense is up this year, but we’re up to 11 players north of 25 points per game with Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving sniffing around at over 24-points. What a boom! What a bang! So many points.

24 percent rebound rates: I’m not aware of a 24 percent rebound rate being any magical indicator of grand rebound supremacy, but coming into this season it had been reached 11 times since 1971 (when the league started keeping track) and seven of those seasons were contributed by that far gone caroming expert, Dennis Rodman. In 2016-17, three giants are there – though hanging by little wisps of hairs: Andre Drummond for the second time (24.8), DeAndre Jordan, also for the second time (24.1), and finally a rejuvenated Atlantean, Dwight Howard (24.3). Also, Reggie Evans.

Tall men shooting from long distances: It’s a bit redundant after the Brook Lopez note above, but the tallest men in the league are taking and making more threes than ever before. Five players at least 6-foot-11 are making over 1.5 3s-per-game. Back in 2014 and 2010, we had three players making as many and it isn’t a stretch (maybe pun intended?) to imagine a future where super tall, super versatile big men make Lopez’s 5-attempts-per-game look conservative by comparison. Ah, sweet, unknowable future, how I dread thee.

Two steals and two blocks: Back in December, everyone’s favorite Greek import since either Greek philosophy or gyros, Giannis Antetokounmpo, was averaging 2.2 blocks and steals-per-game. The 2-2 is a rare and immaculate measure of defensive disruption that’s been accomplished most-recently by Gerald “Crash” Wallace in 2005-06. And sadly, it looks as though our young freakish friend has faded down to 1.7 steals and 2 blocks. While stranger things can and do happen, a new inductee appears unlikely.

22-8-6: I swear this isn’t the portion of the piece where I call out Giannis for failing to keep historical paces, but alas, who knows what will be found when we overturn these rocks; be it moss or centipede or the traveler’s buried treasure. Whatever, 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists per game is the measurable domain of the versatile and in 2017, that means Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Prior to these two California dynamos, LeBron (2013) and Kevin Garnett (2003) were the only other players to reach these heights in this young century. Oh, and Giannis? 23-9-5.5 – he’s close! (Side note, LeBron is averaging 7.95 rebounds-per-game.)

28-10-1.5: That’s points, rebounds, and 3s and so much of our statistical evolution is rooted deeply beyond the arc. Prior to 2017, it had never been accomplished, but now we have not one, but two volatile stars embracing its indication of inside-out excellence: Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins; the same pair we saw back in December.

Over 30 percent usage and under two turnovers per game: Where we once were imbued with Zach Randolph and Kawhi Leonard, we’re now left to our lonesome selves though we have been given a pair of worthy contenders in Lou Williams (30.4 percent, 2.02 turnovers per game) and Kawhi (30.5 percent, 2.1 turnovers per game). For reference, this has been achieved three times in league history and all three occasions came in the past eight seasons.

30 points, 2.5 blocks per game: Once upon a time (back in December of 2016), Anthony Davis was putting up 31.5 points and 2.7 blocks per game. Those days are gone though as the Pelican has landed at 28 and 2.4. It’s a long season and when you miss games with the frequency of Davis, you’re bound to regress. Also, having a reliable collection of teammates and a coach who believes in lineup stability go long ways towards consistency.

35-15 games: In just 47 games, Anthony Davis has put up ten 35-point, 15-rebound games which is more than Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon or David Robinson ever did. Ten such games puts him third all-time*, behind Shaq (11 games, two different seasons) and Charles Barkley (12 games), in single season 35-15s. Not bad for an oft-injured 23-year-old. (*Note: We’re only able to look back as far as Basketball Reference’s game finder tool which is 1983-84. This excludes the great Wilt Chamberlain who averaged 36 and 24 over his first 706 games. The great Twitter account @wiltcarchives posted 184 Chamberlain box scores where he scored over 45-points. A quick glance at that long list makes obvious that the undisputed champion of the 35-15 is Chamberlain.)

50-40-90 club: We’re down to just three competitors vying for the unofficial measure of 2017’s Great Shooters (which isn’t to diminish anyone who may not be on this list like Steph Curry or J.J. Redick): Kawhi Leonard (48-40-90), C.J. McCollum (48-42-89), and Jae Crowder (48-42-88). For reference, the last two players to reach 50-40-90 were Curry (last season) and Durant (2013); they’re now teammates.

Joel Embiid

Yeah, Embiid gets his own section here and I’ll present his section a bit differently by comparing his current stats to December numbers and aligning any historical context.

Usage rate: Embiid was at 37.6 percent through 13 games; he’s down to 36.3 percent which is still an all-time high for an NBA rookie.

Turnovers: He was averaging 3.8 in under 24 minutes per game, which has held steady at 3.8 while his minutes have increased to over 25 per game (improvement!). That said, Embiid still has the worst ratio of turnovers-to-minutes played. (To be fair, the handful of players who have a usage rate greater than 36 percent also have correspondingly high turnovers; though to continue being fair, they have lower turnover rates and higher assist percentages. I’m of the belief that the Philly brass has rolled out the ball and given Jo-Jo the green light to do whatever, whenever he chooses. If that means attack a double team with the dribble, so be it. That micro-failure creates a learning opportunity.)

3-point shooting: As of December, he was shooting 51 percent on 35 attempts and like an anchor thrown off a steep cliff, it’s sunk down to the 36 percent. Perhaps it’s more like an anchor tossed into a canyon filled with cotton candy. The only thing historical about this is that Embiid is probably 7-foot-2.

Blocks and 3s: 29 blocks, 18 3s in first 13 games. Through a player’s first 31 games of a season, Embiid’s 76 blocks and 36 3s made put him in some unique company with Serge Ibaka (2015) and Raef LaFrentz (2002) as the only players to block as many shots and make as many 3s through 31 games – and Embiid’s done it in over 200 less minutes.

Next: The conundrum of the Miami Heat core

None of this crazy numbers even account for the historical volume of triple-doubles or Golden State’s obscene offensive attack or the definitiveness with which humans will swear to you Isaiah Thomas is not an MVP candidate. But buckle in friends, foes, and Celtics fans; the end is near and there’s nothing to indicate this Vesuvian statistical eruption has any will or intention of calming.