Willie Cauley-Stein is stepping up for the Kings in place of Rudy Gay
Overall, the NBA consistently underestimates a defensive-minded big man’s ability to improve to at least a passable level on offense. Yet from Joakim Noah to DeAndre Jordan (and on and on), the league’s smartest and most athletic bigs continuously find ways to provide enough value on offense that their defense can stay on the court. If his last two weeks are to be taken seriously, Willie Cauley-Stein is the latest example, and he could become the first of the Sacramento Kings’ big man prospects to find their footing with the team.
Cauley-Stein has averaged 9.3 points and 4.2 rebounds on 59.7 percent shooting over his last nine games. He’s still only playing 17.4 minutes per game and hovering right around a usage rate of 20 percent, which is what one would expect for a player occupying one-fifth of his team’s lineup. These are the numbers of a complementary offensive piece, but considering that was probably his offensive ceiling all along, the numbers are workable within the context of Sacramento’s team.
The young big man is up almost a half a point from last season’s Real Plus-Minus, and he looks better overall. However, the team’s offense is almost six points worse per 100 possessions with him on the court, per NBA Wowy. When he and franchise star DeMarcus Cousins share the court, that margin balloons to almost 14 points in the negative. But after spending most of the season bouncing in and out of the lineup and playing for short spurts even when he did find the court, Cauley-Stein’s mere presence in the lineup is enough to inspire intrigue. Since Rudy Gay’s injury on Jan. 19, Kings coach Dave Joerger has leaned back into the double-big lineups that better suit Sacramento’s roster makeup (in case you missed it, the Kings have lots of big men).
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From the start of the season until Gay’s injury, only five percent of Cousins’ minutes came with Cauley-Stein on the floor. Since that night, Cousins has played 11 percent of his minutes next to his fellow Kentucky alum. If we expand to include Kosta Koufos in that equation to count all minutes in which Cousins shared the court with a “traditional” big man, we find that he did so for about 41 percent of his total minutes before Gay went down compared to 58 precent since the injury.
In short, Cauley-Stein has become a more regular part of Joerger’s rotation as a direct replacement for Gay.
Over the life of the season, the Kings are basically even on defense when the sophomore is on the court, but they actually improve defensively by a few points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. When he shares the court with Cousins (whose own individual defense grades well compared to the Kings’ team numbers), though, things get ugly. The pair has combined for a wild 116.8 defensive rating this year, which is worse by far than Denver’s league-worst mark.
However, the one number Kings fans, coaches and players would point to that defines the post-Gay stretch is four. As in, the number of games the team has won since his injury, out of nine total. The Kings are winning more consistently than they have all year, and this stretch includes victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.
In the Golden State win particularly, Cauley-Stein displayed his best skill over and over, slinking in for easy shots around the rim simply by staying attentive.
Thus far in his career, the big man has been able to make opponents pay for ignoring him on offense. He’s mastered that little Birdman/Kenneth Faried baseline lurking alley-oop, and knows how to stay focused while the Kings ping the ball around the perimeter, waiting for his opportunity. The main difference this season has been an improved touch around the rim when he does get the ball with room down low. Per NBA.com, he’s up to 64 percent on shots within 10 feet, up from 60 percent last year.
I wrote last season when looking into the Kings’ young prospects as a group that Cauley-Stein would be best unlocked operating within motion-based offensive sets that free him up roaming toward the hoop. Plays like these were ex-coach George Karl’s specialty early last season:
The Kings could use a lot more of that this season to unlock the Cauley-Stein-Cousins pairing, even as the motion in the offense moves from Karl’s preferred screening and sprinting to more cutting and passing under Joerger. Cousins is experiencing his best season passing the ball, and Cauley-Stein stands out as one guy who could benefit even further from it.
As the Kings look toward the trade deadline and the postseason, there would be nothing better than for them to continue winning as Cauley-Stein soaks up more of Gay’s minutes. The best thing a young player can do is contribute toward victory, and the best thing a young Kings player can do is establish chemistry with Cousins, around whom the entire organization rotates.
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With two rookie bigs on the roster and Cousins occupying the middle for most of each game, Cauley-Stein’s ability to show up as part of a winning team may just solidify his spot in the team’s plans going forward.