Breaking down Kentucky’s transition attack

We take a look at how Kentucky performs in transition on the court

Transition baskets are perhaps the best theater in the game. Maybe it’s the preponderance of dunks and layups, maybe just something about watching these incredible athletes do their thing with less people in the way. It’s always just fun, though.

I mean, how can you not love stuff like this.

But it’s not just the optics that transition benefits. Buckets on the run are important, efficient parts of any healthy offense.

Pushing the ball lets an offense attack the defense before it has a chance to get set. It can potentially open up driving lanes, create mismatches, and force bad decisions. Shots at the rim are easier to come by and convert — a big deal, as it’s the most efficient shot in basketball. Transition chances also create a number of free throw opportunities, typically at rates higher than seen in half-court possessions.

The benefits are strong enough to construct an entire team philosophy around (see: Shaka’s VCU, Louisville). Take a look at this table, based on available-to-date 2016-17 data from hoop-math.com

The essential shift shown by this table is an additional 14 percent or so of the shots taken in transition are at the rim. Shots at the rim, in play-by-play data, are listed as dunks, layups, or tip-ins. This comes with a corresponding drop in shots taken from 2-point jumper range. Coupling this shift with the large jump in conversion at the rim (58.31 percent to 65.32) and minor upticks in efficiency from range gives an eFG% jump of 6.5 percent for shots taken in transition vs. half-court. That’s a point-per-shot differential of 0.11 — for an average D-I offense, that kind of jump (in offensive rating) would take you to the top 40 in the country.

These benefits have attracted a new disciple of transition this year: the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky in Transition

Kentucky has fully embraced the benefits of pushing the ball in 2016-17. Per hoop-math, Kentucky is currently on pace to take 35.8 percent of their initial shot attempts in transition this year. 30.2 percent of their total attempts fall in the same category. Hoop-math defines ‘transition’ shots as those that take place within 10 seconds of a possession change, and that’s the definition we’ll be sticking to in my own numbers. Both numbers are the highest by far for Kentucky since hoop-math started tracking in the 2011-12 season. In fact, through 24 games, Kentucky’s already passed every logged year but 2012 in ‘transition’ attempts for the entirety of the season. They’ll likely pass 2012 with 4 or 5 games in the regular season to spare.

While we don’t have the available numbers, this is likely the most Kentucky has run since 2009-10, when they had Eric Bledsoe, John Wall, and DeMarcus Cousins on the same squad. Being the leader of the past six years is still impressive, considering the caliber of athlete Kentucky usually runs out.

And it’s not just high by Kentucky standards. The table below stacks up ‘Power 6’ conference teams in the last 6 years by percentage of field goals taken in transition. Kentucky’s currently sitting in 6th, and third this year behind UCLA and Creighton.

The list of teams that take this many shots in transition is mainly made up of small-school, repeat offenders like VMI, the Citadel, and Monmouth. These are teams that need to grab the advantages they can, as their talent can often be overmatched on the court. A team with Kentucky’s talent running this much is scary for opposing teams.

Here’s a look at the team-wide breakdown, by time taken ’til first shot, for possessions so far this year.

When Kentucky’s offense takes a shot within the first ten seconds of a possession change, it’s been performing significantly better. The 1.24 PPP margin for the year is 13 points/100 possession better than all other possessions (1.11 PPP). Nearly half of Kentucky’s attempts in transition come at the rim, compared to just 31.27 percent when the first shot is taken after the initial 10 seconds of the possession. That 31.27 percent mark in the half-court is good for just 212th best in the country. While this means Kentucky’s a bit too reliant on transition possessions to get easy shots at the rim, they more than make up for it there thanks to volume. Check out the table below, creating using the number of seconds into a possession each of Kentucky’s shots was taken this year.

The Wildcats have taken 547 of their overall shots this year within 10 seconds of a possession change (36.13 percent). Most importantly, check out the comparison in makes at the rim. Thanks to their incredible volume and efficiency there in transition, Kentucky has made just 13 fewer baskets at the basket in transition than they have in the half-court.

And, thanks largely to these rim attempts, a shot attempt (separate from offensive rebounding, or free throws) has been worth 1.18 points for Kentucky in transition this year, versus 1.04 points per shot for anything taken in the ‘half-court.’

Take a look at the team-wide shot chart for transition:

And for the half-court:

While this is mainly a reflection of the above table, as Kentucky is only missing games with Stephen F. Austin and Duquesne, it provides a visual of what was discussed above. As always, check out the bottom of this article for an explanation of shot chart methodology. They’ve been better from 3 in the half-court, but so much better at the rim it barely matters.

Why the Change?

There are two clear drivers behind Kentucky’s push to transition this year – the guard tandem De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, two top-10 projected picks. They combine to form one of the most dynamic and athletic backcourts in the country – the jump in transition for Kentucky is a natural extension of their skills.

Check out Kentucky’s ‘transition’ table from hoop-math.com

Monk and Fox have combined to take 268 of Kentucky’s 477 half-court shots, as defined by hoop-math (only the first shot in each possession) – 56 percent of them. The two have also dished 73 assists in transition. While some of them were certainly to each other, it’s pretty reasonable to assume they’re directly responsible for 65-70 percent of Kentucky’s shots in transition – a huge chunk.

De’Aaron Fox

Fox is one of the fastest players in the country with the ball in his hands, and uses his elite speed and burst to attack the rim in the half-court and transition. He uses his driving ability to both score at the basket and set up easy attempts for his teammates. Per hoop-math, Fox takes just under half of his overall shots at the rim. And, per KenPom, he assists on 31.2% of his team’s baskets while he’s on the floor. Here’s a look at how he gets it done in transition, and in the half-court.

De’Aaron gets it done at the basket in any situation, though his volume and efficiency there are better in transition. In fact, he’s taken – per these charts – 73 of his 115 attempts at the rim in transition so far this year.

And as for his assists in transition? Of the 50 tracked from the available shots, 25 have been directly at the basket, while an additional 20 are on 3s.

Malik Monk

Fifteen of those assists went to Malik Monk, the other guard driving Kentucky’s transition ‘revolution.’ Monk is much more a perimeter-oriented player than De’Aaron. Check out his shot charts in transition and in the half-court.

His volume and efficiency in shot-making extends to every zone of the court. He’s been much better from 3 in the half-court, hitting 49 of his 104 (47.11 percent) shots there. Monk’s also been quite good from the deep mid-range, and very efficient when he gets to the basket.

However, he barely gets there in the half-court. In the shots available, he’s taken just 15 of his 184 half-court attempts within 5 feet of the rim. This is just 8.15% of his total, and 6 of his 11 makes were assisted. While this is a bit worrying, he’s such a good shot-maker it hasn’t mattered much in college.

And, Monk’s been significantly better at going to the rim when his team is running in transition. He has nearly 4 times as many attempts and makes at the rim in transition vs. the half-court. While his jumper’s been off in transition, be takes it to the basket  on 37 percent of his attempts. You’d love to see him getting to the basket a bit more, especially for his NBA prospects, but he clearly has the ability to get it done in transition.

Going Forward

There’s a bit to worry about here, as Kentucky has been off its game in transition and overall for the last few weeks. Check out a similar chart as one found above, restricted to the last 5 games.

Efficiency is down across the board — it’s no surprise Kentucky has lost three of these five games. The biggest dip is in transition, though – as noted above, Kentucky has averaged 1.11 points per possession overall in the “half-court.” This last stretch has only seen them fall 0.08 to 1.03 PPP, while transition has dropped from 1.24 PPP overall to just 1.06. Volume has fallen too, with just 37% of these possessions including a shot within the first 10 seconds. The season average up to this point had been 45.65 percent.

It may be that the key to stopping Kentucky’s offense is keeping them contained in transition, if these last few games are any indication. Kentucky might just be stopping themselves, though – De’Aaron Fox has been battling through a sprained ankle throughout this stretch, and missed the Georgia game entirely. Kentucky’s transition monster is almost certainly still there, waiting for Fox’s full return to health. It will be a necessary part of any deep postseason run the Wildcats are looking to make.