Duke and North Carolina will clash yet again in Durham, North Carolina. What three keys will Duke need to focus on to win?
The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel 11 miles across The Triangle to play the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium for the 243rd edition of the second-best rivalry in college basketball. This is setting up to be another classic as UNC enters ranked No. 8 in the AP Poll while Duke is No. 18. The two are separated by just 2.5 games in the ACC standings, so this game gives Duke a big opportunity to close the gap on the first-place Tar Heels. This should be a battle of high-octane offenses, as both schools rank in Kenpom’s top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency but outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Look for this game to go back and forth, featuring spectacular plays from both sides.
In a high-scoring battle, even the smallest advantages can have a huge impact. Both teams will look to feature what they do best and out-execute their opponent. With offenses that powerful, precise execution can make them nearly unstoppable. Here are three keys for the Blue Devils to take down North Carolina on Thursday night.
3. Slow down UNC’s offense
This seems like an obvious point considering I just told you about how great their offense is, but I don’t just mean in figuratively — I mean literally. The Tar Heels average offensive possession lasts just 15 seconds, ranking 16th in the country, per Kenpom. According to Hoop-Math, they are 22nd in the nation in initial field goal attempts in transition. All of that adds up to a team that likes to get out and run. Off missed shots, made shots, and turnovers, North Carolina tries to get down to the other end of the floor quickly and create easy shots as often as possible. For a team that can struggle with scoring in the half court, those points will be vital as the game wears on. With Duke’s inability to defend teams in transition, they will need to focus on getting back early to stop the break, even if it means abandoning the offensive glass.
Slowing down the UNC attack could benefit Duke twofold. As well as limiting North Carolina offensively, it will help them deal with a shortened rotation. With or without Theo Pinson, Roy Williams goes considerably deeper into his bench than Mike Krzyzewski. Coach K will not want his stars to wear down against the Tar Heels’ depth, and keeping the game slower will help him to prevent that. In a game that could be close, he’ll want the likes of Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, and Jayson Tatum to be relatively fresh and ready to go. Having them chase North Carolina up and down the court all night doesn’t seem conducive to that, so Duke will need to find a way to keep UNC’s transition attack at bay.
2. Keep doing what works
In the past few games, Duke has shuffled around their starting five and rotation a bit, and the result has been wins on the back of an unstoppable offense. They shifted Jayson Tatum into the power forward slot in their starting lineup for the game against Wake Forest and, well, the results have been pretty good. You can pick out some eye-popping numbers for lineups of that type, but the most important one is that Duke has now won three games in a row with that combination starting. Playing against generally bigger, slower power forwards has elevated Tatum’s offensive game and greased Duke’s offense as a whole. While they have been a very good offensive team over the course of the season, that lineup change has made them elite. They’ve posted 1.057 points per possession over the last three wins, per Synergy Sports, a number that over the course of the entire season would rank second, behind only UCLA.
These lineup changes do cause some other ripples throughout the roster, most notably that it pushes more of Duke’s supremely talented big men to the bench. Along with returner Amile Jefferson, Duke brought in highly rated recruits Harry Giles and Marques Bolden at center this season. Because of that plethora of good players, Tatum often found himself on the court with two of them earlier this year. While Jefferson remains in the starting lineup and Giles still comes of the bench, albeit less frequently, the lineup change has all but eliminated Bolden’s role. He has played just four minutes total in their last three games, and while eliminating a guy ranked 11th in the Recruiting Services Consensus Index rankings hurts, it has elevated the team, and especially the offense, to a new level of play.
1. Protect the defensive glass
North Carolina’s monster frontcourt has attacked the offensive glass with reckless abandon this season, posting the best offensive rebounding rate in the nation. Many fail to realize that securing the rebound and ending the possession is a huge part of team defense, and UNC takes advantage. Second chances generally create good opportunities and North Carolina is no different, shooting 71.1 percent on putback chances at the rim according to Hoop-Math. In limiting the Tar Heels’ high-flying offense, keeping them off the offensive boards and finishing possessions is going to be a huge key in this one for Duke. The biggest culprits are Kennedy Meeks, Tony Bradley, and Isaiah Hicks, all big men, so Duke’s bigs will need to be diligent in boxing out and maintaining their assignments.
With the smaller starting lineup mentioned above, this could become an even bigger problem. Trusting the 205-pound Tatum to box out the likes of 242-pound Isaiah Hicks could present issues, so Duke will need to take gang rebounding to heart in this one. Already a team that doesn’t run in transition a ton and isn’t the best at finishing when they get there, the Blue Devils may need to abandon that facet of the game entirely. Sending all five guys to the defensive glass in lieu of leaking out could be vital for them to end possessions and keep the Heels off the board. While none of their guards are exceptional rebounders, both Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard stand 6-foot-5 or taller, so getting some help down low from them would be a big boost to Duke’s front court.
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Duke will surely get a boost from what will be a raucous crowd at Cameron Indoor on Thursday night. With the Crazies willing them to victory, they’ll have to keep the game slow, rely on their successful starting lineup, and finish defensive possessions. Up against a team that likes to run, dominate opponents with brute force, and especially attack the offensive glass like North Carolina, those things are all much easier said than done.