Are the Wild legitimate Stanley Cup contenders?

The Minnesota Wild are one of the NHL’s newer franchises, having joined the league in 2000. Minnesota is a state that loves its hockey. It’s even known as “the state of hockey”. However, despite what Mighty Ducks suggests, Minnesota hasn’t known many winners. The last team from the state to win a professional title of any kind is the Minnesota Twins and they did it over 25 years ago.

After firing long-time head coach Mike Yeo, the team surprised everyone by making a playoff run. People started believing maybe 2016 is their year. And then they ran into a red hot Dallas Stars team, who promptly knocked them out in the first round. Minnesota hasn’t been to a conference final since the 2002-03 season.

However, after hiring Bruce Boudreau as their head coach, the Wild have the appearance of a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Despite not having any true stars, Minnesota leads the Western Conference. However, the stakes are high. Minnesota can’t fall back on “there’s always next year”. With an aging Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, next year better be coming soon. Could this to be the year the Wild bring the Stanley Cup to Minnesota?

Goaltending Is Key

Boudreau has the worst luck ever when it comes to goaltenders. Just ask the Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks. His goalies have been abysmally bad in the postseason, no matter what he does. Boudreau has never advanced to a Stanley Cup Final thanks to his struggles in games seven. But it’s probably not his fault because his goalies have a .868 save percentage in clinching games. So unless you want Boudreau to be the goalie himself, there’s not too much he can do about it.

Devan Dubnyk could be the guy who breaks the streak of bad luck. He is having a heck of a season, stopping 93.3 percent of the shots he has faced as of Feb. 8. Dubnyk is allowing merely 1.99 goals against per game.

However, maybe he isn’t the key to his own success. While Dubnyk has to be given credit for stopping the shots he faces, the Wild have been making his job relatively easy. Of goalies who have played at least 1,500 minutes at even strength, only Robin Lehner has seen fewer high danger chances than Dubnyk.

Minnesota has done an excellent job keeping shots away from the crease. Instead, they are willing to concede low danger and even middle danger shots against. There are some inherent flaws with this strategy. While shots from far away might be “one percent” shots, they add up over time. And the Wild allow a lot of shots. During all situations, Dubnyk faces 56.30 shot attempts per 60 minutes and 41.85 unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes. Both rank in the top 10 among goalies with at least 1,500 minutes played.

If Dubnyk can sustain his performance so far this season, the Wild could go deep in the playoffs. Other than Minnesota, there’s no real juggernaut team in the Western Conference. A team like the Calgary Flames could be dangerous as an eighth seed, but their lack of goaltending gives Minnesota an advantage. The Chicago Blackhawks, despite their record, have unimpressive possession numbers and are certainly beatable. If he’s on his game, Dubnyk can be the difference maker in a seven game series.

A Star-less Offense

What’s most impressive about the Wild’s success so far is they’ve done it with no true superstar skaters. Minnesota has a remarkably balanced offense and doesn’t rely on any one line or pairing for offense. That’s the kind of depth which can give opponents nightmares in the playoffs. Minnesota has an NHL high eight players with at least 30 points.

Down the middle, they pack an impressive one-two punch. Eric Staal has been a blessing and is having a bounce back year after having a less than stellar contract year. Mikko Koivu is a Selke Trophy favorite and might be Minnesota’s most valuable forward. Despite facing tough competition and less than ideal zone starts, he has 16 goals and 22 assists. Erik Haula has been solid, but Minnesota needs to improve their center depth at the trade deadline.

Mikael Granlund’s transition to wing is the best thing to happen to his career. Freed from the defensive responsibilities of being a center, he leads the Wild with 48 points. Nino Niederreiter is having a terrific season with 17 goals and 21 assists. Perhaps no forward has benefitted more from Boudreau than Jason Zucker. Often inconsistent under Yeo, Zucker has already set career highs in assists and points this season. He’s on pace to pass his career high in goals as well.

Despite their depth, history shows you need stars to win in the playoffs. The postseason is stressful and goals are hard to come by. To win, you need your best players to be your best players. For Minnesota, this means Zach Parise has to be the game changer they signed him to be. So far, the results haven’t been too promising. His 0.56 points per game in 2016-17 (as of Feb. 8) is the third lowest of his career. Parise has battled injuries this season, but even when healthy, he hasn’t been anywhere close to their best player.

Minnesota has been a bit lucky this year. PDO is a stat which combines save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. 100 is considered roughly average, though anything from 98 to 102 is usually considered normal. Minnesota has a PDO of 103.8, the second highest in the NHL, trailing solely the Washington Capitals. While it also measures skill, it also contains a fair amount of luck. The Caps play seems somewhat sustainable, as they have the elite skill necessary to sustain a high save percentage and a high shooting percentage. Even if they drop off a bit, their strong possession numbers should help ease the effects of the regression.

The same can’t be said for the Wild. But looking at Corsica’s scoring chances, Minnesota leads the NHL with a 56.70 percent scoring chances for percentage at even strength. The correlation between scoring chances and Stanley Cup winning teams is a bit grey because everyone’s definition of a scoring chance is different. But it’s an encouraging sign for the Wild.

Even though the NHL postseason seems games and series determined by a weird bounce of the puck, Minnesota has what it takes to be a Stanley Cup contender. But just ask the 2015-16 Capitals how far being a great team got them in the postseason.

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