How Gonzaga can make the Final Four

In the eyes of many, Gonzaga has sinned.

The small, Roman Catholic university located in Spokane, WA is home to about 7,500 students and one of the best mid-major college basketball teams in the country. The foundations for which were laid in 1999 when the Bulldogs made their second NCAA Tournament in school history and first in a string of 18 straight appearances.

As a No. 10 seed under then head coach Dan Monson, Gonzaga completed upset after upset before falling to the tournament’s eventual champion, Connecticut, in the Elite Eight. The Bulldogs were the country’s Cinderella story. Problems, though, arise when expectations change.

Gonzaga, under the tutelage of current head coach Mark Few — hired after Monson left for Minnesota following the Elite Eight run — has excelled since its famed Cinderella moment. In the seasons following its 1999 run, the program has produced a co-National Player of the Year, a No. 1 seed, six Sweet Sixteens and another trip to the Elite Eight. No other mid-major program in the country can claim a similar resume. It still hasn’t been enough to satisfy many of the sport’s onlookers.

Discussions surrounding the Bulldogs always seem to focus more on what the program hasn’t done. Gonzaga was unable to close the door on UCLA the season that Adam Morrison was the co-National Player of the Year, its No. 1 seed failed to get past a second round matchup with Wichita State and even its second Elite Eight team couldn’t beat a trio of Duke freshmen that led the Blue Devils to a title. The Bulldogs have yet to make a Final Four and are consistently criticized for underachieving on the sport’s biggest stage.

These failures are Gonzaga’s sin.

In college basketball, the path to absolution is simple, but complex. The fastest way to erase past sins is simply to win. For the Bulldogs, that means finally making a Final Four. The path, though, is never an easy one. March is filled with chaos. It’s the reason why so many fall in love with the sport. In the 40 minutes between those painted lines, anything can happen. To be one of the last four teams standing requires some undefined formula of skill and luck, of individual effort and good grace.

This Gonzaga team is talented enough to perhaps finally find salvation and not just because they are undefeated and ranked No. 1 in both major polls. The Bulldogs boast both a top-five offense and a top-five defense in terms of adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. They are the only team in the nation to even rank in the top 10 of both at this stage of the season. It’s enough to make them the top performing team in Division I based on adjusted efficiency margin, which accounts for a team’s strength of schedule.

Gonzaga’s offense, which currently ranks third nationally at an adjusted 122.0 points per 100 possessions, is a fascinating combination of old school post ups mixed with modern pick-and-roll basketball. The Bulldogs have finished an offensive trip with a post up on 18.6 percent of their possessions this season, per Synergy Sports. That ranks as the third highest mark in Division I behind Purdue and Oral Roberts. Most importantly, those possessions have produced efficient scoring opportunities.

While most teams are transitioning towards offenses that de-emphasize post ups, Gonzaga is taking advantage of them to the tune of 1.07 points per possession, the second-highest number in the country. In terms of both quantity and efficiency, the Bulldogs are more reliant on post ups than their peers that also rank in the top five of adjusted offensive efficiency:

The biggest reason — literally — for Gonzaga’s success in these situations is 7-foot-1, 300-pound Przemek Karnowski. 66.3 percent of his individual possessions have ended in post ups this season, per Synergy Sports, and his 1.10 points per possession on those ranks in the 95th percentile of Division I. The senior center looks like he’d be more at home in a WWE ring than on a basketball court, but his size allows him to create space in the post and he possesses a feathery left-handed hook that is a near certain bucket when tossed over his right shoulder.

Few teams in the country have a big man capable of handling the Bulldogs’ man mountain one-on-one. Karnowski is simply too massive and too imposing for most of college basketball’s frontcourt players. That means opponents often have to send a second defender to double team Karnowski once the ball enters the post. The senior punishes those doubles by finding the open man either along the perimeter or cutting to the basket. Gonzaga is scoring 1.49 points per possessions on plays where Karnowski passes out after the defense commits, per Synergy Sports. Here’s a good example of the kinds of shots he can create for teammates in these situations:

In the above clip, Iowa State’s Deonte Burton doubles big-to-big off of Johnathan Williams, forcing Naz Mitrou-Long to pick up Williams as he heads towards the basket. That leaves Nigel Williams-Goss, a 36.4 percent 3-point shooter, wide open on the perimeter. Plays like this are why Karnowski has an 18.9 assist rate, the second highest mark among qualified centers in the country.

Karnowski, though, isn’t a perfect offensive solution. For starters, he’s only on the floor for 21.9 minutes per game. Luckily, between Williams as well as freshmen Killian Tillie and Zach Collins, the Bulldogs have plenty of other post scoring options. Opponents can also take away touches from the post against Gonzaga. For example, BYU largely played a 1-3-1 zone in the second half of their match-up in Provo that cut off the lanes for entry passes to Karnowski. He attempted just two shots in 13 minutes of action in that half. Even in these situations, the Bulldogs still have plenty of outs.

When necessary, Williams-Goss has evolved into the type of guard who can take over games as he did in the second half against BYU, scoring 24 points on 15 shooting possessions. The former Washington transfer leads the team in scoring at 15.6 points per game on a 60.7 true shooting percentage. He is also the team’s best distributor, posting 6.1 assists and just 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes. Williams-Goss shines pushing the pace in transition where he’s attempted 29.9 percent of his total field goal attempts, per Hoop-Math, and once he gets into the paint he can finish over the outstretched arms of bigger defenders with his pretty floater.

Karnowski and Williams-Goss are the centerpieces of a Gonzaga offensive attack that has been efficient in ways that other programs have struggled to this season, but the Bulldogs have had good offenses in the past. In 2006, they ranked second in adjusted efficiency and in 2015, they were fifth. This year’s team, more than past Gonzaga teams, can also impose itself defensively.

The Bulldogs have the top defense in the country in terms of effective field goal percentage (41.5). Some portion of that is the competition they’re facing, but they are also able to impact opposing offenses with their length on the interior. Opponents are making just 40.9 percent of their 2s and a meager 48.9 percent of their shots at the rim against Gonzaga this season. Karnowski and Collins are why.

The 7-foot-1 senior averages just 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes, but he’s a high-IQ defender who understands the NCAA’s verticality rules and often keeps opponents from getting good looks while barely leaving the floor. Collins, meanwhile, is more athletic and actually an improvement over Karnowski in terms of rim protection. The freshman is averaging 3.3 blocks per 40 minutes this season and his 8.0 percent block ranks 55th nationally, per KenPom. He is more capable of recovering than Karnowski, giving the Zags additional options when defending high ball screens:

This Gonzaga team is different than those that have come before it. It features a highly efficient offense that often runs through a center with soft hands who is a natural mismatch just because of his massive size. Then, there’s the former McDonald’s All-American who has turned into one of the nation’s best point guards and decision-makers. Add in a slew of role players like Williams, Collins and 3-point snipers Jordan Mathews, Josh Perkins and Silas Melson and you’ve got a roster that can score against anyone in the country. They also have length on the interior that takes away easy shots for their opponents, a core tenant of good defensive teams.

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, there are still plenty of people who will question the quality of Gonzaga. There will be those who clamor about the lack of competition in the West Coast Conference despite the fact that the Zags beat a Florida team that handled Kentucky, an Iowa State team that won at Allen Fieldhouse and an Arizona team that could win the Pac-12 during non-conference play. It all circles back to the Bulldogs’ original sin: They haven’t lived up to the sky high expectations thrust upon them by their success since their Elite Eight run in 1999.

This is the unfortunate nature of sports. At some point, results matter and in order to obtain that final bit of respect, the Zags need to find a way to make it to the Final Four. This season, the roads lead to Phoenix, AZ where on April 1 the national semifinals will tip-off. With Karnowski and Williams-Goss leading the way, this may finally be the Gonzaga team that travels the path to absolution.