NBA Trade Deadline portfolio: Carmelo Anthony

It’s hard not to feel for Carmelo Anthony at this point, because this iteration of the Melodrama having reached DEFCON-one status is most certainly not his fault. Similar to the Chicago Bulls, the New York Knicks is a franchise without a clear plan or trajectory (you can insert this description across basically the entire history of the franchise). Instead of rebuilding around Kristaps Porzingis’ once it was clear the Knicks finally acquired the hardest piece to come by in the NBA — a potential franchise player — New York doubled down on Anthony’s window, signing washed up center Joakim Noah to an albatross contract as well as 30 year-old Courtney Lee to a four-year deal, and traded for a damaged goods point guard in Derrick Rose. These were objectively bad moves at the time, so why is Anthony now bearing the brunt of it?

Anthony didn’t offer himself this contract, give himself a no-trade clause or add a 15 percent trade kicker perk to his deal either. That was all Phil Jackson, who is now trying to publicly frustrate Anthony so he agrees to a trade. By all accounts Anthony has made his willingness to stay with the Knicks and live in New York known, despite the Knicks falling short of unrealistic expectations. But the media storm behind Jackson’s strategic comments might push this union over the edge, even though Anthony is still fighting it.

Whether or not Anthony gets moved before the Feb. 23 deadline is a complex question to answer, giving the myriad of roadblocks in play. What is known is that Anthony can still help a team as a scorer, especially if he plays up a position at the four (really his true position at this point). Anthony’s shooting and scoring efficiency is actually up this year from last, despite the notion that Anthony has fallen off a cliff. He’s not as willing of a creator for others as he was, especially down the stretch last season, but few can create shots and have the shot-making ability that Anthony possesses, and that counts for something.

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Factoring in to any potential trade of course is Anthony’s no-trade clause, which permits him to control his destination. Anthony thus far has stated that he would only wave it for either the Cleveland Cavaliers or Boston Celtics as he reportedly wants a clear shot at a championship (which begs the question, why Boston?). The Los Angeles Clippers and buddy Chris Paul have also recently entered the fray of Anthony’s wish list. Basically, Anthony has to sign off on any trade, which severely depresses his market.

The second roadblock to a trade is Anthony’s 15 percent trade kicker, which if he was moved on the day of the deadline would bump his salary up to $29,153,189 from $24,559,380 this season, heightening the difficulty of matching salary. The Knicks would have to pay Anthony’s full $9,187,617 kicker allocated in two even installments over this season and the next if moved at that time, but his post-kicker salary would count as incoming salary for the receiving team in this scenario, and his pre-kicker salary as outgoing salary for the Knicks, complicating matching. Anthony could waive his kicker to make a trade legal, but he’s not parting with a cool $9,187,617 in most cases.

Given the above factors, especially the no-trade clause, we can currently narrow down the list of teams that could realistically trade for Anthony to a handful of teams: Boston, Cleveland, and the Clippers.

The Celtics would be ideal trade partners for the Knicks, even without any Nets picks attached. But thus far Boston hasn’t shown any interest in trading for Anthony. Hypothetically, Boston has the salary fillers in Amir Johnson’s $12,000,000 expiring contract and Tyler Zeller’s $8,000,000 fully non-guaranteed salary next year to ease aggregation ability. Boston also has a plethora of young players in Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier to include, with their own first round pick in 2018 and beyond, Memphis’ 2019 first (top 8 protected) and the Clippers’ lottery protected 2019 first to add as sweeteners. It’s a cost, benefit analysis for the Celtics, as Anthony doesn’t put them over the top, but at the right price it might be worth a gamble. If Boston includes Avery Bradley the Knicks would be wise to explore this option.

The other notable trade partner of course is Cleveland with Anthony’s connection to LeBron James. It’s just difficult to make the numbers work if either Kevin Love or J.R. Smith aren’t included, and Cleveland has shown no desire to part with either. The Cavaliers are also over the luxury tax, so the amount of salary they can receive is in a trade compared to outgoing salary is more restricted (125 percent of outgoing salary + $100,000), not to mention bringing on Anthony would increase a league-leading luxury tax bill even more. An Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye, and Richard Jefferson deal for Anthony with the Knicks either waiving Sasha Vujacic and Maurice Ndour or sending them back into Cleveland’s minimum exceptions is possible, but Anthony would have to waive a good part of his trade kicker to make a trade legal.

Cleveland is also short on draft capital, already owing their 2017 first round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers and 2019 top ten protected pick to the Atlanta Hawks. They could trade a conditional 2021 first rounder to the Knicks, as the league now permits a team to trade two “first available” picks outstanding, which could either be unprotected or partially protected, but must convey by 2023. Even a Shumpert, Frye, Jefferson and 2021 unprotected first probably doesn’t move the needle for New York unless Shumpert fetches something extra from a third party. Adding Anthony’s shot-making and potentially unleashing “Olympic Melo” as a pure finisher and quick decision-maker playing off James would be incredibly intriguing.

The last logical Anthony trade destination option right now is the Clippers, which contains unique complications due to the Clippers being only $2,110,008 under the hard cap. However, the Clippers don’t seem amenable to dealing any of their big three, which lessens the allure of their offer. A Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson salary construct works, and would entitle Anthony to his entire trade kicker. Similar to Cleveland the Clippers have first round Stepien Rule tie-ups, but could offer a 2021 unprotected first, along with potential pick swaps. That deal doesn’t really move the needle for New York either though. Anthony would slide into Los Angeles’ offensive void at the three, and could be insanely lethal as a small ball four finishing plays from Chris Paul.

Overall, other teams like the Washington Wizards could get involved in the Anthony sweepstakes, but the numbers are incredibly difficult there, and Anthony has shown no desire to play in Washington. Ditto for the Chicago Bulls, who have a veteran-laden team but have been too porous this year to intrigue Anthony. Anthony’s situation in New York is growing more toxic by the day, and with his suppressed trade market there really is no end in sight that satisfies both Anthony’s desires and any respectable return for the Knicks.

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New York would be better off waiting until the offseason when teams have clearer avenues to cap space and when other opportunities could arise. New York is only one game back in the loss column of the fifth spot in the lottery even with Anthony, which could net them a much needed lead guard like Dennis Smith or Frank Ntilikina. But playing the long game has never been New York’s style, as Jackson has continued that tradition. Be prepared for anything come February 23.