DraftKings NBA Picks for February 16
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for February 16
We go from the largest player pool in our DraftKings tournaments to one of the smallest. We have only two games to choose from heading into the break. None of the big stars are on display, but we still have enough players to create some tough decisions. Who can set our lineup apart?
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($10,700): Wall is the highest priced player on the board, and the only one who is a real threat to put up at least 60 DraftKings points. He has 163.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Pacers this year, which leaves him squarely at 5x value. He is worth the price for having the highest ceiling on the slate and his history against the Pacers.
Isaiah Thomas ($9,300): Jerian Grant‘s work on the defensive end is keeping him in the lineup. I don’t know if he is quite as good as Rajon Rondo, but he is good enough to make this a less than ideal play. Thomas does have 88.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls this year. That gets him to about 4.8x value. However, we know how good Thomas can be when he is on.
Honorable Mention:
Jeff Teague ($7,400): Teague has put up almost as many points on Wall as Wall has on him. In the three games, Teague has 123 DraftKings points and costs much less than Wall does. He lacks the huge game upside of Wall, but Teague gets you more per dollar.
Dark Horses:
Michael Carter-Williams ($5,100): MCW will most likely start for Dwyane Wade again. The Bulls really have no reason to play Wade, who is nursing two sore wrists. In lieu of some juvenile joke, I will just say that MCW has 53.5 DraftKings points in two starts filling in for Wade. That leaves him right in the magic 5x value area.
Rajon Rondo ($4,200): Yes, I realize that Jerian Grant is still starting. I also realize that Rondo put up 61.25 DraftKings points in two games against his former team earlier in the season. Rondo struggled a lot as the starter, but not against Boston. If you are looking for some lineup separation, this is one spot where it could happen, but there is a lot of risk involved since he doesn’t start anymore.
My picks: Wall(PG), Teague(G); Teague(PG), Carter-Williams(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,100): Butler has 90.5 DraftKings points in two games against Boston, which leaves him below 5x value. That said, no one at the position has particularly good stats against tonight’s opponent. Butler is the only one at the position capable of hitting 40, so if you have the money, it’s not a horrible idea.
Bradley Beal ($7,100): Beal is good to use when the matchup is right. On paper, it looks like this is the place to use him. However, in three prior games against Indiana this year, he has averaged 27.5 DraftKings points. That isn’t even 4x value at his current price. It may serve you better to look elsewhere, even if you are targeting low owned players.
Honorable Mention:
Marcus Smart ($5,700): Smart went berserk last night on the Sixers, notching over 50 DraftKings points. Considering he only picked up 22.25 in the first meeting with the Bulls this year we should temper expectations. However, a lot has changed since then. The Celtics are without Avery Bradley and Jaylen Brown still. The Bulls are without Wade. Smart has a chance to come up big for the price.
Dark Horses:
Monta Ellis ($3,700): His minutes and productivity have steadily increased since the beginning of the month. He is knocking down shots again, and is gaining the trust of teammates and the coaching staff once again. Ellis topped 30 DraftKings points last night for the first time since early December. Washington will likely hold him under that, but I would bet he still hits 7x value or more.
C.J. Miles ($3,600): His production has been as sporadic as his shooting. That’s because Miles is basically Lou Williams. He is a shooter off the bench. If he goes cold, your lineup is toast. However, if he gets hot, he’s winning you money. He is an interesting contrarian play tonight against Washington, especially if he spends most of his time at SF.
My pick: Smart(SG), Ellis(UTIL); Butler(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bet:
Paul George ($8,200): George has averaged 43.8 DraftKings points per game in the three games against Washington this year. They don’t really have anyone that can stop him. George was underwhelming against the Cavs last night. Expect him back on track tonight in the final game before the break.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,200): Porter has struggled against George this year, averaging only 26.5 DraftKings points in those three games. That said, Porter has averaged 33.3 DraftKings points per game over his last ten, including a clunker against Indiana. There is risk involved here, but if you are going for low ownership, it’s an interesting pivot. He will likely play more than 25 minutes this time around.
Dark Horses:
Doug McDermott ($4,000): The absence of Wade and/or Butler has afforded plenty of playing time for the sharpshooter. McDermott has racked up 50 DraftKings points over the last two games, and given the struggles of Jae Crowder this month, I would much rather roll the dice with McDermott.
Glenn Robinson III ($3,000): Robinson was outstanding last night, racking up 31 DraftKings points on Cleveland. He has had moderate success as a starter this year, but with the way the Pacers played last night, they may elect to start Robinson again and play C.J. Miles off the bench. If Robinson starts again, he is worth taking a shot on.
My Pick: George(SF); George(SF), McDermott(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Markieff Morris ($6,900): Morris has averaged 28.9 DraftKings points in three games against the Pacers this year. Tonight we aren’t so much worried about value, but at who has the best chance of getting the most points at a position. Morris decimated the Pacers up front on Friday. I will go with his recent success against Indiana and go all in on Morris.
Honorable Mention:
Taj Gibson ($4,700): Gibson has 62.25 DraftKings points in two games against Boston so far this year, but he has struggled lately. He only has topped 5x value three times in the last ten games. Can he recapture the magic against Boston, or will he continue to struggle and cede minutes to the kids in the frontcourt?
Kelly Olynyk ($4,500): The Celtics have been giving a lot of run to Olynyk lately, and he has done a whole lot with it. He has topped 6x value in nine of the last ten games. Fading Olynyk may be tempting, but this is not the place to do it. You can gain separation elsewhere.
Dark Horse:
Kevin Seraphin ($3,500): It seems likely that Thaddeus Young and Lavoy Allen will be out again. If they are, Seraphin should start. If he does, you should consider him. Seraphin has 33.5 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes against Washington this year, including 29.75 on Friday. Seraphin is a good play if he starts.
My pick: Olynyk(PF), Seraphin(F); Olynyk(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Marcin Gortat ($6,000): Al Horford is struggling lately, and has not played well against the Bulls this season, so I am much more comfortable using the cheaper Gortat. Gortat has averaged 39.6 DraftKings points in three games against Indiana. He has also topped 6x value in eight of the last nine games. Gortat could be one of the better plays of the night.
Myles Turner ($5,500): Turner’s production has been all over the place for most of the season, but he has picked up 93 DraftKings points against in three games against the Wizards this year. He has hit 5x value in six of the last ten games, which is a little shy of a sure thing, but you have to like his chances.
Honorable Mention:
Cristiano Felicio ($3,600): The injury to Nikola Mirotic has given a lot more minutes to Felicio and Portis lately. You can argue that Felicio has outplayed starter Robin Lopez on the offensive end, but he has not been very consistent either. There is significant risk involved here.
Dark Horse:
Amir Johnson ($3,300): Johnson’s minutes have fluctuated quite a bit lately because of the strong play of Olynyk. However, you could gain separation with this pick over, say, Seraphin. Johnson has 56.75 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this season. He matches up well with the Bulls, so he could have another good game despite Olynyk’s hot streak.
My pick: Gortat(C); Gortat(C), Turner(UTIL)
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