NBA Trade Deadline portfolio: Blake Griffin

We’ll always have our inescapable memories of Blake Griffin dunks ingrained into our head, of a soaring athlete capable of waging war on opposing rims and haplessly stiff defenders. However, the Blake Griffin of today is not that. Instead he’s a considerably more refined player who’s developed a balanced and diverse array of skills, who knows how to more efficiently utilize his talents (that’s not to say he doesn’t still throw down a poster every now and then – just ask poor Miles Plumlee).

With the Chris Paul-era Clippers, Griffin has routinely been a core part of one of the most devastating lineups in the league, a balanced lineup capable of clamping down on defense as well as running opponents off the floor.

That starting lineup boasts a sterling net rating of 16.2 and has no particularly glaring deficiencies (outside of a Hack-a-Jordan strategy, which has been shown in some research to actually help the Clippers). However, for the last few years, it has become particularly popular to wonder if the Clippers could benefit by trading Blake Griffin.

Read More: Can the New York Knicks really get Carmelo Anthony out of town?

And it’s not a question without its merits. As summed up neatly in this NBAWowy diagram by Neil Paine, Chris Paul is the key to the Clippers wannabe Maserati, and playing him, Griffin, and Jordan together offers only a moderate advantage over playing just Paul and Jordan without Griffin. That’s because the Chris Paul–DeAndre Jordan duo is already an elite high-low pairing that renders most of Griffin’s skills slightly redundant. This of course isn’t to say that players who add on existing strengths aren’t valuable; synchronousness in a lineup is just as important as complementariness. Rather, it’s to force us to step back and evaluate whether Griffin’s talents can be better optimized. After all, two of the Clippers’ most sensible non-Griffin lineup alternatives (sliding Luc Mbah a Moute down to power forward and plugging in Paul Pierce at SF or putting Austin Rivers in a three guard backcourt) have net ratings of 25.4 and 19.5, respectively.

So that’s where we stand now with the Clippers and Blake Griffin, which has led to plenty of trade speculation, regardless of how much cold water the team itself tries to throw over the rumors. Griffin is a well-rounded offensive maestro with an advanced passing sense who rebounds well and can hold his own on the defensive end, with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of 1.5. His athleticism has certainly waned in recent years, due in large part to the toll of injuries, and he doesn’t really stretch to the 3-point arc, however he is a cerebral player who can still be a successful offensive lynchpin.

The development of Blake Griffin’s shot chart from his rookie season onward is instructive. The 2014-15 season was the last season that he played more than 60 games and is a good barometer for what Griffin on offense can be ideally, health willing. But since then, Griffin has also added a fledgling, if not entirely dependable, 3-point shot. He’s become a proficient midrange shooter who no longer just relies on crashing into the rim at full speed.  This year, only 55 percent of his 2-point shots are assisted, the lowest mark of his career, which could explain the dip in effective field goal percentage, also the lowest mark of his career, currently at 49.6%. Yet, thanks to his penchant for getting to the line, with a free throw rate of 0.423, the highest since his 2013-14 season, Griffin’s true shooting percentage is at 55.3 percent, the highest since his 2013-14 season. He has had to create more looks for himself this year, but he’s also been able to translate that into more opportunities at the free throw line. Griffin gets to the line 10.5 times per 100 possessions, among the best in the league (and it certainly helps that he’s currently converting free throws at the best mark of his career, 75.4 percent).

Then of course, there’s his passing. Blake Griffin this season has an assist rate of 25.4 percent and throws 7.2 dimes per 100 possessions (for reference: Nikola Jokic, another big who deservedly gets a lot of praise for his passing acumen, has 7.7 assists per 100 possessions). The two highest recipients of Griffin’s assists are DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick; he’s got just as much of an ability for interplay with another big as he does for opening up 3-point looks. And DeAndre Jordan, who is making 69.5 percent of his 2-point attempts overall this season, is converting at an absurd 85.2% mark on shots off passes from Griffin.

With that kind of versatile and unique skillset, especially on the offensive side, it’s no surprise that teams like the Knicks and Thunder have been connected with Griffin in trade rumors. He could potentially add another dimension to their offenses and provide the teams with another playmaker and shot creator. Without speculating too much on what trade packages could be, this is what Knicks and Thunder lineups might look like with Blake Griffin.

We already know that all rumored Knicks deals for Griffin involve shipping out Carmelo Anthony. However, since there’s pretty much no way Blake Griffin will be playing small forward, such a move would portend a Griffin-Porzingis frontline and eschewing a traditional center. This should give the Knicks some pause since basically their only good defensive players are centers, and this would increase the physical toll on either Porzingis or Griffin. However, this projected lineup, while still fairly imbalanced, offers some foundation for a good offense, with the ability to get to the free throw line and score effectively, with solid shot creation acumen. The next step in building around a Griffin-Porzingis frontline would be to stack the roster with good perimeter defenders who can help open up the floor.

For the Oklahoma City Thunder, it’s a little harder to pinpoint which assets the Thunder would need to give up. While Griffin still wouldn’t solve the glaring lack of spacing on the Thunder, he could definitely shoulder some of Russell Westbrook’s offensive load and provide another channel for running the Thunder offense, restoring a little bit of the offensive firepower that was lost with Durant’s departure. Swapping Enes Kanter with Griffin in Oklahoma City’s favored twin towers lineup would enable a defensively prolific unit with some more playmaking, albeit at the expense of a little efficiency. It would also provide the Thunder with another playmaker to help run the offense for lineups when Westbrook takes a breather.

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Ultimately, any trade for Blake Griffin would take quite a bit of work, as the Clippers have been reluctant to part with their star forward, and most teams don’t have the right package of assets to acquire a player of his caliber. And any potential trade comes with its caveats for the destination team’s own lineup balance and fit as well as hinging on a clean bill of health for Griffin. However, he certainly is a prolific talent that can add an extra offensive dimension to any team that he’s on, undoubtedly why he’s been linked in so many trade rumors over the years, even at a preliminary level – Blake Griffin is that good, and certainly a whole lot more complete of a player than he was in his dunk contest days.

All research courtesy of NBA.com/Stats, Basketball-Reference, and 538