College Basketball Bracketology 2017: Week 15
For the first time in four weeks, I’m altering my top line following Baylor’s loss to Texas Tech. The Bears (22-4, 9-4) have a tremendous resume — beating Louisville and Xavier, as well as VCU on a neutral court — but their inability to stop the Red Raiders during a 52-point second half is a bad look for a team known for defensive prowess. Texas Tech shot 56.3 percent on 2s and went 30 of 43 from the free throw line — a staggering performance against the sixth-best defense after adjusting for opponent, according to KenPom.
I nearly lifted North Carolina to the top line last week, and I never truly considered Louisville or Florida State to jump into the now vacant spot. Arizona/Oregon/Kentucky are a tier below. Roy Williams’ team is massive, and the Tar Heels can hang points on anybody — 107 against Oklahoma State, 102 against Monmouth, 96 against Florida State, 91 against Virginia Tech.
Last Four In: Indiana, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Marquette
First Four Out: Michigan State, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Georgetown
Speaking of the Red Raiders, they are a new face on my bubble watch after beating Baylor and nearly taking down Kansas a couple days apart. Texas Tech is only 5-8 in the Big 12, but four wins against tournament teams (West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor) paired with some impressive near wins make Keenan Evans and the Red Raiders intriguing to watch as we hit the home stretch.
Indiana has a pronounced dependency on its nonconference wins over Kansas and North Carolina. Otherwise, the Hoosiers have just not had it together in the Big Ten — sneaking by Penn State in triple-OT to break up what would now be a seven-game losing streak. Its most recent blunder was a 12-point loss to fellow bubble team Michigan, which has likely played itself into the field by stumping Michigan State and Indiana in back-to-back games.
With this year’s bubble pegged as being particularly challenged, I find it hard to believe the ACC won’t end up with 11 teams. For now, Syracuse and Miami (FL) have done enough to lock themselves into the eighth and ninth spots — leaving Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson and (maaaaaaybe) N.C. State competing for the last two.
The Demon Deacons are ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, and trouncing N.C. State by 30 to inch back toward .500 in the ACC was commendable. Question: Would the tournament be more or less fun with John Collins (18.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks) in it? Answer: WAY MORE FUN.
The team has lost four out of five — including an 18-point loss at Georgetown — but I’ll give Marquette the edge for another week over blah teams like Arkansas and Michigan State. The Golden Eagles have six players scoring in double figures and are third in the country in 3-point percentage.
Onto the bracket…
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Weber State
(2) Florida State vs. (15) UT Arlington
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Princeton
(4) Purdue vs. (13) New Mexico State
(5) South Carolina vs. (12) Wake Forest/Marquette
(6) Maryland vs. (11) UNC Wilmington/Georgia Tech
(7) USC vs. (10) Michigan
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Virginia Tech
Purdue gets bumped up to the fourth line following three straight wins over Northwestern, Maryland and Indiana. The Boilermakers (20-5, 9-3) are 11th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings because of their spectacular balance, and if you must have star power, Caleb Swanigan has a PER of 26.7 and is second in the Big Ten in scoring.
Matching up Purdue and South Carolina in round two would be a treat. Swanigan is a much more effective offensive player than Tyler Lydon of Syracuse, but the Gamecocks forced Lydon into 28.6 percent shooting on 2s and six turnovers. But Lydon did stretch South Carolina out for 3 of 5 shooting from deep, and he finished with 18 points on 12 shooting possessions.
One would think Purdue in March would offer more reliable secondary offense than Syracuse did that night in November. It should also be noted in this bracket South Carolina would first need to put down Collins and the Demon Deacons, or put out the Golden Eagles — either being a moderate test.
A bit of a tangent: I have both Dayton and VCU in the field, regardless of who wins the A-10 tournament. Sure, the A-10 is down, and the Flyers and Rams are hurting for wins that matter. They also are a combined 39-10.
Nobody is going to argue the level of competition in the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten is more substantial than in the mid-major conferences. But blindly promoting mediocre teams from major conferences over winning teams from reputable leagues is bad for business. The NCAA tournament committee should champion teams that win most of their games over teams that happen to win enough against the right teams.
Pairing Dayton against Virginia Tech in the No. 8/9 is a version of what I’m talking about. Until the Hokies beat Virginia, 80-78, on Sunday, Virginia Tech was coasting on banked wins against subpar competition (8-0 against RPI Sub 150) and playing near-.500 against everybody else. Playing in the ACC provides numerous opportunities to play good teams, but before upsetting the Cavaliers, Virginia Tech’s only RPI Top 50 win was against a sliding Duke in December.
Dayton is ranked 33rd overall by KenPom compared to 51st overall for Virginia Tech. That gap tells me that Dayton has a higher ceiling. The Flyers, who are 10-5 against the RPI Top 150, are firmly in the Big Dance.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Davis
(2) Arizona vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Boise State
(4) Florida vs. (13) Akron
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) Middle Tennessee State
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Seton Hall
(7) Iowa State vs. (10) Syracuse
(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Minnesota
Riding a six-game winning streak, Florida jumps to the fourth line. The Gators are a top 5 defense, per KenPom, and their 22-point win against Kentucky is appreciating for me. Florida and Cincinnati in round two would be a loud matchup. The Bearcats fell out of a No. 4 seed by losing on the road to SMU on Sunday.
Notre Dame fans might have a gripe over being on the sixth line after taking down Florida State by 12 on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost four in a row before beating the Demon Deacons behind 88 points and scoring 84 against the Seminoles. But Notre Dame is routinely getting bruised inside against ACC competition. The Fighting Irish are allowing the most 2-point field goals in the ACC, and opponents are shooting 49.7 percent on those attempts — a stat guided by Notre Dame being 14th in opponent offensive rebounding in conference play.
Iowa State/Syracuse is a fascinating battle between teams with great wins and terrible losses. In the Cyclones’ case, a 6-9 record against the RPI Top 150 has hamstrung their resume, but winning on the road against Kansas is a feat. The Orange beat Florida State and Virginia in back-to-back weeks in the Carrier Dome, but they can’t seem to defend anywhere else. Give me Monte Morris and Naz Long against Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone, please and thank you.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16)Texas Southern
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Furman
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) Duke vs. (12) Vermont
(6) Butler vs. (11) Kansas State
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) TCU
(8) California vs. (9) VCU
Louisville and West Virginia could easily have flip-flopped if the former had fallen against Syracuse on Monday, and if the latter had held on against Kansas for the second time this season. Barring a huge run in the Big 12 tournament — which would demand, presumably, another win against Kansas — I doubt West Virginia will climb onto the second line.
Duke has won five straight and six out of seven, including a victory over North Carolina, so any talk of them being undeserving of a No. 5 seed is misguided. The Blue Devils take advantage of Butler’s misfortune. The Bulldogs have lost three out of four and actually have been passed by the Creighton Bluejays despite the injury to Maurice Watson Jr.
Kansas State has lost five out of six and could be in danger of falling out of the tournament if the Big 12 was capped at seven teams, however unlikely that may be. The Wildcats have impressive wins over West Virginia and Baylor, but they are 6-9 against the RPI Top 150. Kansas State lost to Texas Tech head-to-head on Jan. 24, and the regular season finale on March 4 could be decisive.
South Region
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) Baylor vs. (15) UNC Asheville
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Bucknell
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Belmont
(6) SMU vs. (11) Indiana
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Miami (FL)
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) Wichita State
Oregon split its Los Angeles road trip, taking care of USC but falling short against UCLA. Much like West Virginia, the Ducks are likely bound to the third line barring a run in the conference tournament. It’s tough to hold a team hostage over one game, but losing on the road against Colorado in January was damaging.
The Mustangs have won eight straight games, as Sunday’s win over Cincy puts SMU up to the sixth line. KenPom has SMU ranked 16th overall. Semi Ojeleye and Shake Milton are knocking down 4.4 combined 3-pointers per game on 42.1 percent shooting. Oregon has a pair of games under its belt against UCLA that would help the team prepare for a potential second round matchup against SMU.
Northwestern beating Wisconsin was a sigh of relief for Wildcats fans after back-to-back losses. Earlier wins over Wake Forest and Dayton, paired with the road win over the Badgers, should have Northwestern (19-6, 8-4) comfortably in the tournament for the first time — ever.