At Wichita State, it’s the same story with new characters
By Chris Stone
Mar. 19, 2016 marked the end of an era for Wichita State basketball. On that day, seniors Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet played their last game in a Shockers’ uniform. Baker and VanVleet were the faces of Wichita State and the last remnants of the team’s Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2013.
The two guards helped establish the Shockers as a nationally relevant program during their tenure. After being role players as freshmen, they started every game they were healthy for over the next three seasons. Their results would make most high major programs blush.
In 2014, Wichita State ran the table leading up to the NCAA Tournament and earned a No. 1 seed before falling to an immensely talented Kentucky team. In 2015, the Shockers knocked off in-state rival Kansas to make the Sweet Sixteen and in 2016, they trounced Vanderbilt in the First Four before upsetting Arizona ahead of the seniors’ final outing.
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The loss of two players the caliber of Baker and VanVleet — both of whom are now under contract with NBA teams — would cripple most mid-major programs, leading to a rebuilding period before they could return to prominence. That hasn’t been the case for Wichita State. The 2016-17 Shockers are just as good as the previous five Wichita State teams to make the NCAA Tournament, but few seem to be paying attention.
The AP poll is an imperfect measuring stick, but it’s just about the best one that we have to gauge where teams fit in the national consciousness. After three straight years of opening the season ranked in the AP top 25, Wichita State found itself in the “others receiving votes” category ahead of opening night last November. The Shockers have yet to crack the top 25 this season — although they are currently the first team out of the rankings — which is disappointing given that for much of 2016-17 their advanced metrics have pegged them as one of the best 25 teams in college basketball.
Wichita State currently has the 13th best adjusted efficiency margin in the country, according to KenPom, and the Shockers rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offense and defense, something that only 11 other teams can claim.
From a historical perspective, this Wichita State squad compares favorably to the program’s last five rosters, all of which made the NCAA Tournament:
The only team with a better margin than the 2016-17 Shockers is the one that ran the table leading up to March Madness. This season’s team, though, is a bit different than the ones that came before it.
For starters, there’s simply more talent on the roster. Back in 2013 when Baker and VanVleet were the only freshmen on the team, neither player even showed up on 247Sports‘ list of commitments for the Shockers. Now, the roster is littered with three-star recruits plus former four-stars Markis McDuffie and Conner Frankamp, a Kansas transfer who was a top 50 prospect in the class of 2013. That’s not to say that anyone on the current team rises to the level of Baker and VanVleet. They don’t. But it does mean that the Shockers are less likely to be outclassed in areas like athleticism than they were before.
There’s also still that bit of charm from unheralded recruits happening in Wichita. Austin Reaves is one of 11 freshmen in the country to have logged more than 300 minutes while posting a Box Plus-Minus score of 10.0 or better. In a list that includes the likes of future lottery picks Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson and Jonathan Isaac, Reaves stands out. The 6-foot-5 guard out of Cedar Ridge High School in Arkansas is the only player on the list who was unranked in 247Sports’ recruiting rankings. Reaves is averaging just 13.0 minutes per game this season, but he’s been a sniper from behind the 3-point arc and his per 40 minutes numbers (15.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists) suggest that he could bring more to the table if asked to. If anyone is set to follow the trail that Baker and VanVleet blazed, it’ll be the unranked kid from Arkansas.
The second place this team differs is on the offensive end. The 2016-17 Shockers have the best adjusted offensive efficiency of any Wichita State team in the KenPom era. It’s not too hard to figure out why. The season’s squad is also the best 3-point shooting team from Wichita State in the KenPom era.
Modern basketball has grown to emphasize the 3-point shot for various reasons. Both shooters and coaches have grown more comfortable with launching more shots from behind the arc and because three is more than two, it’s usually more efficient to do so. Wichita State has made 39.8 percent of its 3s this season, the 14th best mark in the country. There are six different players on the roster who are shooting better than 36.0 percent with at least 25 attempts this season.
Frankamp, in particular, has been a killer from deep. He’s hit 44.1 percent of his 118 attempts. On spot up shots, he’s averaging 1.47 points per possession, per Synergy Sports. That’s good enough to be in the 99th percentile nationally. In recent weeks, Frankamp has come to play more off the ball as well, giving him additional catch-and-shoot opportunities where he’s highly efficient. He’s averaging 1.43 points per attempt (95th percentile) on those shots this season, again per Synergy Sports. The junior is one of the biggest reasons this team has been so productive on the offensive end.
There are also similarities to past rosters at Wichita State. Sure, this Shockers team is the worst of the bunch in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, but they’re not slouches. They still create turnovers (20.7 percent turnover rate, 60th nationally) and clean up the defensive glass by allowing opponents to rebound only 24.1 percent of their misses (12th nationally). Most importantly, though, they do a great job of preventing easy baskets. Opponents are shooting just 42.1 percent (6th nationally) on 2s against the Shockers this season and a big reason why is their inability to get and make high percentage shots at the rim. Wichita State has allowed teams to attempt a meager 29.7 percent of their total field goal attempts at the rim this season, per Hoop-Math, and even then opponents are making a paltry 49.7 percent of those shots (fifth nationally). It’s simply tougher to score when the easy shots don’t go down.
All of this leads us back to the NCAA Tournament. The Shockers are aiming to make it to their sixth straight Big Dance, but the path won’t necessarily be an easy one. Last season, Wichita State was labeled as “the most polarizing bubble team in history” after failing to earn the Missouri Valley Conference’s automatic bid. This year, it could be a similar story if the Shockers fall at Arch Madness in St. Louis once again.
Despite being ranked No. 47 in the RPI, Wichita State owns a single RPI top 100 win. It has the 208th ranked strength of schedule, the worst in the top 50, and the 246th ranked non-conference schedule. The Shockers played three RPI top 50 teams during their non-conference slate and failed to capitalize in each instance, falling to Louisville and Michigan State at the Battle 4 Atlantis and Oklahoma State in Wichita. Outside of their home win over Illinois State, their best win came against Oklahoma, a team that is 3-10 and dead last in the Big 12. Those are not the numbers of a team that is comfortably on the right side of the bubble.
Wichita State fans can find solace in the fact that the NCAA Selection Committee has grown more reliant on advanced metrics like KenPom in recent seasons. This slow shift to find the “best” teams in addition to the “most deserving” teams is one that should favor the Shockers. After all, no team ranked as highly as Wichita State currently is in KenPom has been left out of the NCAA Tournament if they were eligible to play in it.
Even as they slip a bit under the national radar, the Shockers have continued to build upon their recent history with a new influx of talent and an efficient offense. Back when the school hired current head coach Gregg Marshall, then athletic director Jim Schaus told the media, “Excellence is not about one season, it is about building a program.” This March, hopefully the Shockers deservedly get another chance to show their program is here to stay.