North Carolina’s blowout win over Virginia taught us a few things.
When two top-15 teams match up in a marquee game on a Saturday night, it’s rare that the game produces a blowout, but that’s exactly what went down in Chapel Hill as the North Carolina Tar Heels handled the Virginia Cavaliers, 65-41.
Junior Justin Jackson led the way for the Tar Heels with 20 points on 14 shots, six assists and four rebounds. Kennedy Meeks (13) and Isaiah Hicks (10) also finished in double figures. Marial Shayok led the way for the Cavaliers with 13 points.
The win keeps North Carolina one game ahead of the rest of the pack in the ACC with four games to play. It also helped shed some light on both of the teams. Here’s what we learned.
1. Virginia’s offense doesn’t look good enough to win a national title
Virginia delivered by far its worst offensive performance of the season against the Tar Heels by scoring a meager 0.683 points per possession. The Cavaliers shot 27.8 percent from the field and in the process raised questions about whether or not the team’s offense is good enough to carry them to a national championship.
For most of the season, Virginia has been hot from behind the 3-point arc, but over its last three games — all losses — it’s shot 15-for-63 (23.8 percent) from deep. That in itself isn’t a killer given that the Cavaliers won’t shoot that poorly for the rest of the season, but it’s not clear that they have a secondary option when the outside shots aren’t falling.
Unlike many of the nation’s other top teams, Virginia doesn’t have a go-to guy who can put the ball on the floor and get a bucket one-on-one. The Cavaliers also rank near the bottom of Division I in free throw rate meaning that they aren’t creating easy opportunities at the foul line either.
For a team that plays at such a slow pace — which means inevitably close games — not having a consistent offense or go-to guy can be a killer when contests are single elimination in March.
2. North Carolina’s defense has enough potential to win a title
The Tar Heels rank 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, which would be the worst pre-NCAA Tournament ranking to ever win a title (slightly behind North Carolina’s 2010 title team that ranked 39th). That said, there have been flashes this season that they can play the kind of defense necessary to win a title. After all, Virginia didn’t have such a ruinous performance by itself.
Tonight’s second half, in particular, sticks out as a good example. The Cavaliers managed 0.633 points per possession and shot just 5-of-18 on 2-pointers over the final 20 minutes. The Tar Heels blocked three of those misses and cleaned up the defensive glass to prevent any second change points.
Most importantly, North Carolina now has its real starting lineup — Joel Berry, Theo Pinson, Jackson, Hicks and Meeks — available and healthy. Pinson, who has been injured for much of the season, brings all-important perimeter defense to the table. It may take some time for everything to jell, but we’ve seen what the Tar Heels can bring to the table defensively and it’s enough to cut down the nets in March.
3. Justin Jackson has a legitimate ACC Player of the Year claim
Jackson delivered an all-around performance for the Tar Heels in their win, but it was just the latest in a long line of excellent outings for him in the ACC this season. Entering tonight’s contest, Jackson was averaging 19.6 points and 4.7 rebounds per game on a 54.7 true shooting percentage during league play.
Next: Wichita State is ready for March
It’s unlikely that the Carolina junior is the favorite to win the award — that honor currently lies with Duke’s Luke Kennard — but he’s got a case to be made and strong performances against Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Duke down the stretch could see him ultimately jump Kennard.