Aleksandar Vezenkov has been reborn as an NBA Draft prospect

Prospects withdrawing from the NBA Draft isn’t uncommon. For years, players have tested the waters of the draft after the college season ends, getting feedback from teams and agents before deciding to risk entering the draft, or heading back to college or overseas to try to better their standing. The NBA expanded the period for early entry and withdrawal last year, and we saw a record number of players declare, and subsequently withdraw. This is generally good for the league and the players. It allows teams to scout fringe players for a longer period, helping scouting for the current draft and the next year’s, and the players get more chances to prove themselves before having to bite on that potential risk.

This decision is a risk for underclassmen and internationals because you never know how that next amateur season is going to go. The ideal is that you are Kris Dunn, who withdrew from the 2015 NBA Draft as a fringe lottery pick, and was able to improve his stock with a brilliant senior season to become the No. 5 pick in 2016. At the very least, you hope you end up like Dario Saric, who withdrew from the 2013 NBA Draft, and held steady on his draft stock to end up being picked No. 12 in 2014. But there are inherent risks with waiting, and forfeiting a year of professional earnings.

You could end up like former Nebraska power forward Walter Pitchford, who withdrew from the 2015 Draft, and tried to go play overseas for a year. He couldn’t find a contract, ended up with Raptors 905, got buried on their bench, and now is trying to resurrect his career in Georgia (Zaza’s Georgia, not Dominique’s).

Read More: Eurocup oddities and Vezenkov’s big day

You could end up like Maryland’s Melo Trimble, who went back to Maryland after getting projected as an early-second-round pick in 2016. He’s posting better raw stats this year, but as a 22-year old junior with an undersized physical frame, he’s been left out of this year’s draft conversation to date.

And potentially worst of all, you could be Nedim Buza, a 21-year old Bosnian forward who withdrew from the 2015 and 2016 Drafts. He could have been a draft-and-stash option this year. Instead, he suffered the Paul George injury (WARNING: Video of this injury is disturbing), and his career is in jeopardy.

And then, there’s the case of Aleksandar Vezenkov, who was a potential first rounder as a 19-year old in 2015. In a relatively stacked draft, he stood out as a potentially excellent 3-point shooter, hitting around 38 percent of his 3s on four attempts per game over two seasons with Aris. But while sites like Draft Express were high on him, NBA teams must not have been, as Vezenkov instead elected to return to Europe to play with Barcelona.

In 2016, this looked like a poor decision. Vezenkov saw a huge reduction in minutes, going from starting for Aris to playing 11.7 minutes per game in 66 contests for Barca. He averaged just 3.7 points per game, and his shooting regressed, as he hit just 37.4 percent on 107 attempts, 61 fewer than he had taken in 2014-2015. The move to the ACB also illuminated questions about his positional fit — at 6-foot-9 with subpar athleticism, where would Vezenkov defend at the NBA level? As a result, Vezenkov dropped off 2016 Draft boards, and his second early withdrawal was made, much quieter than the first.

Now, the Bulgarian national, who was born in Cyprus, is back. At 21-years old, Vezenkov is again a viable draft prospect, rating 57th on our latest big board update. While Barcelona has had a disastrous season, one positive has been Vezenkov, who is using his newfound playing time to show he’s far from done as a potential NBA player. He’s averaging 8.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game, and his shooting has returned, with a vengeance: he’s currently shooting 59 percent from the field and 47 percent on 100 3-point attempts. This has helped him solidify himself as a real draft prospect, even if he’s just a draft-and-stash in the second round.

Vezenkov’s resurgence has primarily been because of his shooting. After a one-year slump, Vezenkov has over-corrected brilliantly. He has a very smooth release on his long-range shot, and it’s lightning quick, which allows him to get the shot off in tight spaces.

Vezenkov’s form is fairly solid, and consistent. He maintains a compact frame on his shot, and his upper body mechanics are fantastic. He doesn’t get a lot of lift on his jumper, and he does tend to dip the ball in his shooting pocket before rising for the release. But the fluidity of movement and quickness of his upper body mechanics may help him compensate for this at the NBA level.

He’s also more than just a stationary shooter. Vezenkov rotates well off the ball, and he does well shooting on the move. Barcelona loves to set him up off flare screens at the break, and he’s good at filling the corner off of off-ball actions.

Vezenkov also has good potential as a pick-and-pop four, as he is mobile enough to create space on his flare to the line, and his size will likely mean he’s creating a mismatch if the opponent switches their big onto the point guard.

The adjustment to the NBA 3-point line would also not be a problem. He lines up for 3s like this on occasion, and hits them often.

You can see from this that you get the basic 3-point shooter package with Vezenkov. He’s more than just a brilliant raw percentage, although his now four years of numbers greater than 37 percent shooting are promising alone. He projects to have a floor of a Steve Novak or Dorell Wright, strong one-dimensional shooters who can’t create looks for themselves off the ball.

The question, of course, is what Vezenkov can do outside of shooting. He brings one NBA-skill, but the reason guys like Novak and Wright have fallen out of the league is that they struggle to do more. This was a reason that Vezenkov fell off the map in 2016. Partially because of role, and partially because of adjustment to the higher competition of the ACB, Vezenkov really didn’t get a chance to show much outside of shooting, as he was primarily called upon to be a floor spacer.

This year, Vezenkov has shown growth in a few areas as his playing time has increased. This has primarily come as a cutter, as Vezenkov has developed a very nice two-man connection with high-post wizard Ante Tomic.

Vezenkov relies on his court awareness to make these cuts successful, rather than explosiveness or quickness. He makes you pay for falling asleep on him, whether it’s designed, as above, or you lose him after a shot goes up:

Vezenkov also may be able to develop his passing further in the NBA. While his assist rate is low, even for a low-usage wing (9.83 percent), he’s shown good court vision and touch, and he should be able to develop into a heady ball-mover. He’s best at passing out of spot-up drives, which adds a dimension that will compensate for his lack of finishing threat.

Vezenkov isn’t going to be an on-ball threat. He doesn’t have the quickness or explosion to get past even big two guards, and his handle isn’t great. That will limit his ceiling to being an off-ball outlet option, even at the Euroleague level. The one ball-dominant area he does show promise in is his post game, which is reminiscent of the Georgios Printezis or Paulius Jankunas style of European post-play. It’s a game more focused on footwork and touch, with the threat of a jumper or outlet pass keeping the defense honest. He can create swaths of space with his footwork, rather than bullying his way to the basket:

This is definitely more of a promising factor for a potential Euroleague career than the NBA, where he will get minimal opportunities to create from this look.

Defense is the area where Vezenkov will likely be most limited in the NBA. His physical tools are uninspiring, from his subpar strength to his lack of quickness and burst. He’s been able to get by fine at the Euroleague level, where he’s played almost exclusively as a small-ball four. In the NBA, this could be his primary role, although you have to question whether his strength will allow him to do so. Vezenkov struggles to contest shots at the rim because of this.

However, Vezenkov has been a strong defensive rebounder to this point. His defensive rebound rate, while down this year, is still a healthy 15.7 percent. He does well fighting for contested rebounds, which could be a good sign regarding his upper body strength.

But even here, you can see the problems his athleticism present on this end. He doesn’t get good lift when he jumps, and he’s likely a ground-bound player. Vezenkov also struggles with coordination, and his footwork coming around screens is a work in progress.

The saving grace for him could be his awareness, which has helped him compensate at the Euroleague level. An active talker on defense, Vezenkov is smart rotating off the ball, and he’s useful in coordinating teammates in front of him — extremely helpful when defending in tandem with the very inconsistent Tyrese Rice.

While he doesn’t cover a lot of ground quickly, Vezenkov generally plays smart and safe on the defensive end. Even though he occasionally will miss a rotation, he has a pretty advanced understanding of how to defend at an NBA level, especially against the pick-and-roll.

That Vezenkov is able to make these types of recognition plays is a good sign for him moving forward. He will never be a true stopper, but continued development in the mental side of defense could be what makes him playable at the next level.

Next: Peeling back the complicated layers of Grayson Allen

In his third attempt at the NBA Draft, Vezenkov has lived up to the skill set he showed promise with back in 2015. He is still probably a fringe NBA player, a low-ceiling prospect who may be more effective in Euroleague than he ever will be in the States. But this year has proven that he has one NBa-level skill in his shooting, and he’s showing signs that there may be a place for him as a back-up small-ball four. The mental side of his game is excellent, and that will help him. Despite initially failing his risky withdrawal in 2015, Vezenkov has worked his way back into the draft conversation, and he is one of the best draft-and-stash options available in this year’s class.