When Goran Dragic got traded to the Miami Heat three seasons ago, he was joining what could have been a contender in the Eastern Conference. A team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, just a half season removed from making four-straight NBA Finals. He was supposed to be the guy who put the Heat over the top, but now he finds himself the best player on a much worse team.
The Heat’s path to becoming a contender isn’t as clear as it was when they first acquired Dragic, so it might be best if the team hit a hard reset button and rebuilt. Dragic is one of the team’s best assets, and his name comes up in trade rumors, having been linked to the Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks.
Miami’s recent 13-game win streak may have gotten the city excited about basketball again, but Pat Riley thinks big, and you can never rule out anything when it comes to Riley at the NBA trade deadline.
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The stats are there for Dragic — over 20 points and 6 assists per game. It’s not a question if he can produce, and that’s not what a team should be looking for if calling the Heat about Dragic’s availability. When a team acquires Dragic, they also acquire a new style of play.
Dragic pushes the pace of the offense by forcing guys to keep up with him if they want the ball. He’s aggressive, but not in a way that he calls his own number. Dragic graduated from the Steve Nash School Of Probing Under The Basket. He attacks the defense continuously, bending it until a gash opens up for him or a shot opens up for a teammate. Even at 30, he’s still lightning quick. That, paired with his read-and-react style (he never seems to decide beforehand what he wants to do. He takes what the defense gives him) makes him impossible to bottle up for long periods.
Dragic has also developed a nice off-the-ball game, especially from 3-point range, where he’s making 44 percent of nearly four 3s per game. It’s rounded out his offensive game and, when coupled with his ability to create space in the paint, Dragic is one of the premier shot creators in the league.
Defensively, Dragic has improved under Erik Spoelstra to the point where he’s not a negative. He tries hard, and is slithery enough to fight over screens and chase guys off the 3-point line. A team that trades for him likely has to pair him up with a more stout backcourt defender, but we’re not talking about needing a Kyrie Irving-level cover up.
Dragic is as responsible for Miami’s recent 13-game win streak as anyone, but even with that streak the Heat are still below .500 and short of the eighth seed in the East. The Heat have worked themselves back into the playoff conversation, but after starting the season 11-30 it might be too little, too late.
That said, Dragic’s value has never been so high since he’s arrived in South Beach. It also may not ever be higher. Dragic is on the other side of 30, much older than Miami’s other core pieces like Hassan Whiteside (27), Dion Waiters (25), Justise Winslow (20), Tyler Johnson (24) and Josh Richardson (23). If the Heat are committed to a rebuild, trading their veteran point guard now could provide some much-needed fodder.
The Heat traded two future first-round picks for Dragic in 2015. A fine deal for a team that figured to build around a core of Wade, Bosh and Dragic and be a contender in the conference. But with everything that has transpired since, the Heat could really use those two picks. Trading Dragic now gives Miami the best chance to recoup what they lost.
The argument against trading Dragic is that he’s the sort of player you want around to help attract free agents. However, with the new CBA heavily incentivizing free agents to remain with their teams, the prospect of playing in an up-tempo offense may not be enough for free agents to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table.
Still, Riley may be apprehensive to trade Dragic before the deadline in hopes of seeing what shakes out in free agency. Chances are, Riley will wait. However, there may be teams willing to overpay for Dragic and, if that’s the case, Riley may get an offer he can’t refuse. A team trading for Dragic at the trade deadline will (a) have a need at point guard and (b) have strong reasons for making the playoffs this season.
The Magic are one such team. General manager Rob Hennigan is reportedly on the hot seat, and Orlando has recently pivoted from acquiring young talent in the post-Dwight Howard era to making a push toward being competitive. The Magic could offer Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton for Dragic or, if they are willing to part with draft picks, Jeff Green’s expiring contract and multiple future picks.
Another team that could use Dragic is the Kings, who could offer a package built around one of their young bigs, Georgias Papagiannis or Skal Labissiere, along with cap-friendly veterans Darren Collison and Anthony Tolliver.
Bucks head coach Jason Kidd could use a push-the-pace point guard like Dragic. As fun as Point Giannis is, it could help to have a more traditional point guard like Dragic who can also play off the ball. That was the idea behind signing Matthew Dellavedova, but Dragic is a clear upgrade. Milwaukee could send Dellavedova and Michael Beasley, plus draft picks, to Miami for Dragic (I swear this isn’t a veiled excuse to get Beasley back in Miami).
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The Denver Nuggets have enough cap room that they could absorb Dragic’s salary. If Denver is willing to end the Emmanuel Mudiay experiment and Miami indeed wants to get younger, a swap of Mudiay for Dragic makes a lot of sense for both sides.