FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 23
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 95 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 378.7 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Welcome back NBA! For those of us who love DFS basketball, we have been counting down the hours until we can fire back up some FanDuel lineups! Although the slate does not start until Thursday Night at 7PM EST, I am putting together an early view of my Picks and Pivots on Wednesday because like the great Bart Scott, I simply “CAN’T WAIT.”
Not only do we get the return of the NBA on Thursday but we also have the Trading Deadline at 3PM EST so it will be critical to keep an eye out on the news prior to lock and adjust accordingly! The first big domino fell during the All-Star Break with DeMarcus Cousins traded to New Orleans, and they waste no time unveiling the Brow/Boogie combo with an match-up against James Harden and the Rockets on Thursday! Keep an eye on the news as teams like the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings are expected to be active which could significantly alter this slate!
Kemba Walker ($7,700) My gut reaction after looking over this slate (and watching DFS Twitter the last few days) is that people are going to be flocking towards the “new” DFS toys the first chance they get on Thursday. I expect players like Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and all the crazy value in Sacramento to be VERY popular so from a GPP perspective, can we fade all this noise and look to lock in players that may get overlooked?
Kemba Walker is a perfect example of this and for under $8k is one of my favorite plays on this slate! Walker gets to face off with a Detroit Pistons team that he just dropped 44.9 FanDuel points against in their last meeting and Walker comes into this game with 43+ FanDuel points in each of his previous two games before the All-Star Break.
I expect Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to shadow Nicolas Batum which will free Kemba up to do whatever he wants in this spot and at this price point, I am happy to lock in my 40-45 point upside on a player I feel will get largely overlooked.
Quick Thoughts: One of the things I love to do from an NBA DFS perspective is to open up a slate fresh and jot down a gut reaction initial roster. Take a shot at this and just leave it off to the side one day and I think you will be surprised at how those gut reaction picks become the “chalk” plays that you hear about all day from the DFS industry.
Why do I bring this up? My gut reaction picks at PG on this slate were Kyrie Irving against New York and Darren Collison against Denver. Kyrie makes perfect sense – no Kevin Love, gets to face Derrick Rose “defense” and is putting up 20 shots a game based off his recent game log. However, look closer – Kyrie has failed to top 41 FD points in any of his last five games. So why would I pay $9k for him when I can get a guy like Kemba who has hit that mark in each of his last two games and surpassed that mark against the same opponent he takes on Thursday?
Collison on the other hand is the last man standing in Sacramento and leads the team in usage with Boogie off the floor so I expect he will be a HIGHLY popular pick against one of the worst PG defenses in Denver. Collison dropped 40 FanDuel points against Boston in his last start without Cousins and I expect most will chase that game, so does it make sense to fade?
Damian Lillard ($8,600) So now back to my picks – after all that talk about Kyrie and Collison, you will notice I am not locking in either of those guys. Well again, take a step back and look over the rest of the slate – why was I so quick to skip over Lillard and will the rest of the field do the same?
Lillard gets to face a Orlando Magic team that is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing PG’s and the third most over the last ten games. Lillard torched the Magic in their only other match-up this season, putting up 34 points, 8 assists and 46.1 FanDuel points when these two teams played on January 13th.
With Mason Plumlee now in Denver, keep in mind that Lillard sees a 4% usage bump with Plumdog off the floor this season and he leads the team with a stellar 36.7% usage rate while putting up over 45 FD points per 36 minutes of action!
There really is no reason not to love this spot and my hope is that most skip right over guys like Kemba and Lillard for what may be considered sexier picks while we quietly lock in two guys with 40-50 point projections at our PG spot!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Evan Fournier ($5,400) You will notice throughout this article, I really like this Orlando-Portland game as I expect it will be widely overlooked but I think it has really sneaky DFS potential! These two teams just played in Orlando(where they meet again tonight) and the Magic won that game 115-109. The initial Vegas totals have this game at a solid 213 combined team total with only a 2.5 point spread so I really like this game as an under the radar DFS stack! The Magic are expected to score over 6 points more than their season average, the second highest jump of any team on the slate, so I want to get a ton of Orlando exposure on this slate!
With Serge Ibaka now jettisoned out of Orlando, the Magic will likely utilize more of a small ball lineup and Fournier is second on the team in usage with a nearly 26% usage rate. At only $5.4k, Fournier needs 32 FD points to hit 6x value, a target he has hit in three of his last eight games including two of his last four prior to the ASB!
Tyreke Evans ($4,500) I expect the Kings value to be popular on this slate, specifically Darren Collison at PG and Willie Cauley-Stein as a punt PF but the guy I am looking to roster is Tyreke Evans at only $4.5k.
Last season as a starter, Evans averaged 15 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and over 1 steal per game while putting up 31 FanDuel points per contest, which is nearly 7x value at this price point. We have not yet received any word on the Kings lineup but with DeMarcus Cousins gone, Rudy Gay out and Matt Barnes waived, Evans has a clear path to heavy minutes at SG/SF for a depleted Kings squad.
On the season, no team has given up more fantasy points to opposing SG’s than the Denver Nuggets and over the last 10 games they have given up the most fantasy points to opposing SF’s. I will be keeping a keen eye out on Kings lineup news prior to lock but if we can get confirmation that Evans is a go for 27-30 minutes, he will be a lock and load play for me!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Aaron Gordon ($4,500) and Maurice Harkless ($4,600) Heading back to Orlando/Portland, I am looking to stack these two mid-range options at an incredibly top-heavy position on this slate!
With Serge Ibaka off the floor, it is expected that Gordon will move to the 4 and that is perfect timing as Portland gives up the third most fantasy points per game to opposing PF’s on the season! Gordon is a much more natural fit at the PF spot in the Magic offense as his inefficient outside shooting was not an ideal fit for the SF role and now moving back inside he should see a significant uptick in rebounds. Remember, this is a player who averaged over 8 boards per game last season as the starting PF so there is significant room for profit here considering he is down to just over 4 rebounds per game so far this year!
Harkless will continue to start for Portland on the wing with Evan Turner out and we saw the kind of upside Harkless has in the right match-up as he dropped 17 points, 9 rebounds and 35 FanDuel points against the Hawks prior to the break. The Magic are giving up the 6th most fantasy points on the year to opposing SF’s and with Plumlee and Ibaka out-of-town, I think we see this game go small and take on a faster pace which is ideal for DFS purposes!
UPDATE: Al Farouq-Aminu has been ruled OUT for this game so I expect Harkless to be leaned on for heavy minutes on Thursday with Aminu and Turner off the floor!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($10,900) If you are a regular reader to this column than you will know I have an unhealthy DFS obsession with the Joker and on a night where I expect most to pay up for Anthony Davis against Houston (with his new friend Boogie), I think Jokic will go largely overlooked tonight!
Jokic and the Nuggets are finally getting healthy as Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Emmanuel Mudiay all returned to practice and are expected to play which really kills the value of guys like Will Barton and Wilson Chandler, but Jokic is the motor that makes this Nuggets team go and I simply see no way the Kings (without Boogie) can even remotely slow him down tonight.
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Jokic comes into this game with 45+ FanDuel points in each of his last four games including two 60 FD point outings so we all know the upside is there. I expect most will take the $300 savings for The Brow tonight at PF but I am taking a wait and see approach on the Pelicans as both Brow/Boogie are massive usage guys and something has to give there which means a drop in production is a very likely outcome!
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,600) Looking over the mid-range on this slate, KP stands out as a player with one of the highest ceilings and in GPP play I think he is a no brainer play at the PF position. The Cavaliers are without Kevin Love and I see no way Channing Frye is able to slow down KP tonight. Before the All-Star Break, Frye gave up a double-double to Gorgui Dieng and I would set that mark as the floor for Porzingis on Thursday. KP has at least 35 Fanduel points in three of his last eight outings and for a modest investment tonight I think we can realistically target a player with a safe 5x floor and clear 6x upside!
Nikola Vucevic ($7,200) One last time we head to Portland/Orlando and perhaps my favorite play from this game is a seemingly under-priced Magic big man who is in an ideal DFS spot. When these two teams met earlier this year, Vuc dropped 30 points, 10 rebounds and 53 FanDuel points and with Jusuf Nurkic still working his way into the Portland rotation, I expect Vuc to have his way with guys like Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard.
Welcome back to our DFS lives NBA – we missed you.
Next: Fantasy Impact of Boogie Trade to New Orleans
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!