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Vermont is ready to emerge as a ‘Giant Killer’ this March

By Nathaniel Reeves

Dec 1, 2016; Columbia, SC, USA; Vermont Catamounts head coach John Becker directs his team against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 1, 2016; Columbia, SC, USA; Vermont Catamounts head coach John Becker directs his team against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Vermont Catamounts have a chance to turn the best regular season in school history into a deep run in the 2017 NCAA Tournament.

Twelve years ago, the Vermont Catamounts basketball program was suddenly put on the map with one of the most memorable NCAA Tournament upsets of the decade.

After being formed in 1920, the Catamounts hadn’t earned a single NCAA Tournament berth in the first 80 years of their existence. Longtime head coach Tom Brennan led Vermont to a pair of America East Tournament titles in 2003 and 2004, but it earned no better than a 15 seed and was predictably blown out in the Big Dance both times.

Things changed in 2005, as an experienced Catamounts team went 25-7 in the regular season and dominated the AEC to earn a 13 seed. In the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Vermont stunned Syracuse in a 60-57 overtime upset highlighted by T.J. Sorrentine’s long-range bomb.

Since then, Vermont has enjoyed 10 different seasons of at least 20 wins, including six straight under current head coach John Becker, but only two NCAA Tournament appearances with a lone First Four win. This year’s team has a chance to match the accomplishments of the 2005 squad and more, as the Catamounts are currently rolling through the AEC and have the metrics to back up their impressive record.

Vermont returned every key player save forward Ethan O’Day from a young squad last season that went a solid 23-14, fell just short in the AEC Championship Game against a good Stony Brook team, and reached the third round of the CBI. The experience coupled with a solid freshman class has helped, as Vermont has won 16 straight games to improve to 24-5 on the season with a perfect mark in AEC play.

No team has gone undefeated in the AEC since Delaware in 1992, and the 11 wins in the Catamounts’ current streak are by at least 10 points. While Vermont doesn’t have a ton of wins that jump off the page, it was competitive in a road loss to Butler and one-point neutral court defeat against underrated Houston.

Beyond the experience, the best quality about the Catamounts is depth with a rotation that often features as many as 10 or 11 different players getting regular minutes. That could be an important factor come March, as Vermont won’t have to worry as much about foul trouble or a single high-usage player having an off game.

Rather than rely on a star, Vermont spreads the ball around with eight different players averaging at least five points per contest. Trae Bell-Haynes and Anthony Lamb are the two players to watch on the Catamounts’ offense, as both are averaging 11.7 points per game on over 50 percent shooting from the field.

As great as Vermont has been recently, getting much higher than a 13 seed is going to be difficult in the AEC, although it has at least a shot at a 12. Here’s how Vermont’s efficiency ratings per Ken Pomeroy compare to some of the other 13 seeds to win tournament games in recent years.

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vermont-stats /

While the 2017 Catamounts aren’t the best team of the group, they compare favorably enough with other 13 seeds to advance to the second round. Vermont is particularly interesting due to the balance across the roster, as it is fairly strong on both ends of the floor and has a number of different options to turn to in any given game.

The Catamounts don’t take a lot of shots from the perimeter, but are ultra-efficient inside the arc with a team shooting percentage of 55.7 on 2-point attempts. If Vermont can slow the game down to its preferred sluggish pace, the offense will at least be able to keep it close against higher seeder teams.

Becker’s team hasn’t been quite as efficient on the other end of the floor, although there are a few strengths for the Catamounts there as well. Opponents don’t take a lot of threes against Vermont and are shooting a middling 34.3 percent overall from beyond the arc as a whole, while the Catamounts have typically been good on the glass.

Even in a weak conference overall, the sheer dominance Vermont has shown over the rest of the AEC makes it an intriguing Cinderella possibility. The Catamounts lead the AEC in a number of major categories on both sides of the ball, and Lamb has been particularly effective in conference play with an average of 36.8 points, 15.2 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per 100 possessions.

Just like with any potential Giant Killer team, much of Vermont’s fortunate will be dependent on matchups.  The Catamounts don’t have a player over 6-8, so some bigger and more physical teams could present a problem, as Vermont found out in a blowout loss against South Carolina on Dec. 1.

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Still, no low-major team is playing better than Vermont at the moment, and the Catamounts have the depth and talent to challenge a four or five seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. If the Catamounts end the regular season perfect in AEC play before winning the conference tournament, they will be one of the more intriguing Cinderella possibilities to watch in March Madness.