College Basketball Bracketology 2017: Week 16
With a a 22-point win on the road against Seton Hall on Saturday, Villanova is well out in front for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament next month. Kudos to Gonzaga for its perfect play thus far — November wins against Florida and Iowa State have appreciated — but the Wildcats have dominated a stronger schedule. Villanova’s only blemishes are a pair of single-digit losses on the road to Butler and Marquette, two (likely) tournament teams.
The defending national champions have the third-most efficient offense, per KenPom, behind .498/.378/.806 shooting splits. Villanova has No. 23 Creighton at home on Saturday and takes a week off before Georgetown on the road on March 4. If the Wildcats split those games and avoid getting bounced prematurely in the Big East tournament, the top seed is theirs.
This week saw movement between the second, third and fourth lines as Florida and Duke ride winning streaks, while others like Virginia have hit bumps in the road. Let’s keep the ACC in mind as we move to the bubble watch.
Last Four In:
Syracuse, Kansas State, Alabama, Providence
First Four Out:
Illinois State, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
The ACC is college basketball’s best conference, but that does not intrinsically mean that as many teams as possible need to come from the coast. Mediocre is mediocre. At the top of the conference, there have been six locks all season (UNC, Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia), and Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech have done enough to get themselves off the bubble.
The belief that the ACC will yield 11 tournament teams this season hinges on three additional teams playing at least .500 ball in the conference — or having enough signature wins to boost their resume. Syracuse pulled out in front of the conference morass with a five-game winning streak, but has since fallen off. If the Orange split their final two games between Louisville/Georgia Tech, and if they win at least one game in the ACC tournament, they have a borderline resume.
Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, they are currently under .500 in the conference after losing to NC State. In case you were wondering, the Wolfpack are way, way out of the mix. Ditto for Clemson and Pittsburgh. This leaves John Collins and Wake Forest, presently under. 500 in the ACC, as the only other viable threat to make the tournament.
If Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest clean up their act in short order, the tournament committee might still be able to sneak them all into the field of 68 — but not without dashing the hopes of a team like Illinois State. At 23-5, the Red Birds have done more against an admittedly weaker schedule than the younger brother schools of the ACC.
Alabama and Providence have come on in February with decent wins, but there is still time for one or both of those teams to let Illinois State back into the field.
Pray for Indiana fans, who have watched the Hoosiers virtually lose eight games in a row — the exception being a triple-OT win against Penn State. Michigan State has performed much better against the Big Ten, but the Spartans were crushed by Purdue on Saturday, and haven’t done quite enough for me just yet.
Onto the bracket…
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) North Dakota
(2) Oregon vs. (15) UT Arlington
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Princeton
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) CSU Bakersfield
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) Syracuse/Kansas State
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) UNC Wilmington
(7) Maryland vs. (10) Marquette
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Minnesota
Oregon jumps to my second line in place of a floundering Florida State. Beating down conference rival Arizona by 27 points stands out as a signature win, and Oregon has beaten UCLA and USC (twice). I’ve had Arizona ranked ahead of Oregon because the Ducks have lost to bad teams (Georgetown and Colorado), but the team’s overall productivity is enough to bump them up.
Wisconsin lost to Northwestern and Michigan in February — results that help the victors more than indict the Badgers. (Conspiracy theory: It was an inside job to sneak more Big Ten teams into the field.) One team that Wisconsin did take care of was Maryland, but the Terrapins have done enough not to fall out of the top half of any region.
Dayton has won eight out of nine games since losing to VCU, and as I said last week, the Flyers and Rams are both tournament teams. A matchup against Minnesota, one of the streakiest teams in the country, would be great first round theatre.
Marquette is in my field after crushing Xavier on Saturday. The Golden Eagles assisted on 73.1 percent of their baskets, making 13 3s and going 18-of-20 from the free throw line. At 16-10, 7-7, the Golden Eagles would help their chances by taking two of their last three — at Providence, at Xavier and Creighton — but that is asking a lot.
Losers of six of eight games, Kansas State has fallen to the edge of the field. It would be tough to imagine less than seven teams making the tournament from arguably the second-best conference, but the Wildcats, as well as the TCU Horned Frogs, need to get back to .500 basketball.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Irvine
(2) Baylor vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) Duke vs. (14) Nevada
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Akron
(5) Virginia vs. (12) Alabama/Providence
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) Michigan
(8) USC vs. (9) Miami (FL)
The story here is Duke, rising to the third line by ripping off a sizable streak in the ACC. The Blue Devils won nine out of 10 since beating North Carolina. Luke Kennard is one of the best players in the country, stroking 45 percent of his 3s and getting to the line on 40 percent of his shooting possessions. If Duke won the ACC tournament, the team could jump to the second line.
The other story here is Virginia, as the Cavaliers are 2-5 in February and on a four-game losing streak. They cannot score, stuck on 55, 41 and 48 points (in OT) over their past three losses. Virginia had an eFG% of 34.3 against Miami on Monday. As dominant as Virginia can be defensively, ranking No.1 at KenPom, the team has fallen to 18-9.
South Carolina is a similar team to Virginia, but the Gamecocks’ recent struggles have to do with their defensive lapses. Formerly the stingiest defense in the country, South Carolina has fallen to third at KenPom in February, losing four out of five games. Arkansas had an eFG% of 59.8 against South Carolina in an 83-76 win; Vanderbilt outscored South Carolina at the 3-point line by 24 points in a victory on Saturday.
The Gamecocks ran into the buzzsaw which is the Florida Gators on Tuesday, losing 81-66, but that could happen to anybody the way they are playing. But if South Carolina is going to continue to shoot 33.2 percent from behind the arc like it has during conference play, then they need to be able to take away 3-pointers on the other end. The Gamecocks are not a talented enough offensive team to get into shooting contests; they will lose.
As mentioned before, Miami (FL) has done well to get off the bubble. The Hurricanes are 6-2 including a win over North Carolina in their past eight games. If Miami can win two out of three to close the season — Duke/at Virginia Tech/at Florida State — jumping out of the No. 8/9 matchup would be invaluable.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16)Texas Southern
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Furman
(3) Florida State vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) SMU vs. (12) Vermont
(6) Butler vs. (11) TCU
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Virginia Tech
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) Arkansas
Ugly losses to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh have pushed Florida State to the third line. The Panthers buried 10 3s and did the thing Pittsburgh has done occasionally this season where they resemble a good basketball team. With all of their athletic gifts, the Seminoles should squash inconsistent teams, but a lack of creativity on the offensive end — assisting on only 46.2 percent of their made baskets against the Panthers — stalls them out.
I anticipate much movement on the fifth, sixth and seventh lines between now and Selection Sunday, and this region seems emblematic of that. SMU has won 10 straight games, mostly against nobodies, but those banked wins have vaulted the Mustangs into a No. 5 seed. But if you put SMU and Butler on a court tomorrow, I’d take the Bulldogs without blinking. I’ve been more critical of Butler than others, holding them accountable for losing to Creighton after the Maurice Watson injury, as well as bad losses against Indiana State and St. John’s.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has won eight out of nine games. The team’s only loss during that stretch was by three points to Baylor. The Cowboys are up to second in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings, and they have elevated to the top half of the Big 12 standings. With Iowa State and Kansas left before the conference tournament, Oklahoma State could push for a higher seed with a signature win or two.
South Region
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) Louisville vs. (15) UNC Asheville
(3) Florida vs. (14) Bucknell
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Belmont
(6) Iowa State vs. (11) Seton Hall
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wichita State
(8) VCU vs. (9) California
The Gators have won eight in a row, including the 22-point win over Kentucky that launched their season into another stratosphere; Florida is ranked fourth overall by KenPom. Outside of losing to Vanderbilt, Florida’s five losses are either inherently respectable, appreciating, or both — vs. Gonzaga, vs. Duke, at Florida State, at South Carolina.
If Florida knocked off Kentucky in the SEC tournament, the Gators could jump to the second line. It’s possible that the opposite is now true, too — Kentucky could desperately improve its appeal for a No. 2 seed with a postseason win over Florida.
Iowa State has done well to take care of business against more uncertain teams from the Big 12, beating Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech this month. The Cyclones are up to 18 wins total and 10 in the Big 12, and their win over Kansas looks as good as ever.
With 18 wins and a confident record in the Pac-12, California is in the field, but its loss to Stanford was discouraging. As Wichita State continues to pile wins and dominate the MVC — winning 16 of 17 games — it’s getting harder to dismiss the Shockers. Sure, their level of competition is not great, but the Shockers have eclipsed 100 points three times, and have climbed to 13th in KenPom’s overall rankings.
Seton Hall did itself a favor by beating Creighton, needing a 41-point night from Khadeen Carrington, including 18 free throws, and 17 assists from Angel Delgado in order to do so. Creighton shoots so well from deep (11 of 26) that 87 points was just barely enough for the Pirates. The win moves Seton Hall to 3-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 6-9 against the RPI Top 100. Wins against Marquette and Providence look better, too.
The loss was another torching of the Bluejays’ defense. Creighton can win shootouts, but they can also lose them. With three capable offenses (Villanova/St. John’s/Marquette) left on the schedule, Creighton needs to avoid dropping all three before the Big East tournament if the Bluejays wish to remain in the hunt for a No. 5 seed.