FanDuel EPL Fantasy Daily Picks – February 25th 2017
By David Gate
After a two week break the Premier League returns with 12 teams making up a full slate for FanDuel EPL DFS action! Read on for picks and tips.
The aim of these articles is to provide FanDuel EPL DFS players with an edge through delving into stats and news to give your lineup the best possible chance of making money on FanDuel.
I will also be doing the same for DraftKings. While a lot of information will be applicable to both sites I will tailor lineups according each site’s scoring systems.
It is crucial to remember that, unlike US sports, the EPL has no official injury reports or designations. The information is usually out there but it is not as simple as looking for an official report. There is also a high amount of rotation within the squads meaning there are often surprises on the team sheets. Teams release their lineups 45 minutes to an hour before kick off – which will be around 9am ET Saturday. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations as accurately as they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The key to all DFS sports is value. Getting the most points out of every dollar spent. On the EPL contests a ratio of 4x every $1000 of budget means a very high scoring lineup to cash big in GPP games.
I rank my picks out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good matchup
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong matchup
FanDuel EPL Goalkeepers
Top of my keeper list for game week 26 is Eldin Jakupovic (6700)*** of Hull City. Since appointing Marco Silva as manager in January there has been a significant improvement in performances and results. This has included keeping clean sheets against Man Utd and Liverpool already this month. Burnley has managed to score a measly 5 goals away from home in 11 games this season. Jakupovic is my best bet of the day to both stack the stat line and get the clean sheet bonus.
Middlesborough rank a surprising 3rd in goals conceded away (13 goals) while Crystal Palace rank 19th in goals scored at home (13 goals) meaning that Victor Valdes (6800)** is a solid pick this week to pick up the clean sheet bonus.
Joel Robles (6300)** has hugely benefited from Everton’s defensive stability and a healthy compliment of defenders in front of him. Sunderland rank 18th in goals scored this year and would be dead last if not the 4-0 rout of Palace earlier in the month. There is a high chance here of a clean sheet but not enough upside to warrant inclusion in a GPP lineup.
The busiest keeper of the day will surely be Łukasz Fabiański (6400)*. Chelsea are the only top 6 team in action and are huge favorites for this game and should find the going easy enough to create plenty of chances to make the Polish keeper work. My only red flag for this pick would be that Chelsea could get up by a couple of goals early and cruise the second half with slow possession.
FanDuel EPL Defenders
There are two team’s defensive units that I will be targeting this week in FanDuel; Hull and Swansea. Hull City are hosting Burnley who attempt an average of 85 long balls per game, leading the league by far. With Curtis Davies and Michael Dawson missing Harry Maguire (6500)*** has stepped up to lead their backline. Even though his price has creeped up his upside as the dominant defender on the team warrants inclusion. Team mate Andrea Ranocchia (5900)** is another good pick this week and is at a nicer price point.
Swansea defenders will have a torrid afternoon away to Chelsea so I’m expecting them to be highly rostered on FanDuel. Most people will target Mawson (6400)** and Olsson (5600)** after they both scored in Week 25 but I am going to opt for Kyle Naughton (5700)*** instead. Chelsea like to attack down the wings in their 3-5-2 formation and have given Alonso free license to attack down the left meaning Naughton promises to be busy. For example, Alonso’s direct opponent last week, Matthew Lowton, racked up 27 FanDuel points entirely from defensive stats.
The one defender I am going to have in every lineup this week is West Brom’s Chris Brunt (6000)***. Bournemouth have the 19th ranked defense in the EPL and they are 20th away from home. They have let in 28 goals already this year including 11 headed goals (2nd most). Who ranks 2nd in headed goals scored? West Brom. As the designated free kick and corner taker Brunt is primed to grab an assist or two this week. Bournemouth also have an above average attack meaning Brunt should have ample opportunity to clock up defensive points. He is a high floor, (very) high ceiling play this week. A must own.
FanDuel EPL Midfielders
Open up the midfield slate for Saturday and you will see a long line of blue shirts. Six of the top eight midfielders are Chelsea players. Inevitably people will fill up their midfields with these options but I think you should give these midfielders a huge fade this week. Let’s look at why:
Eden Hazard (10000) – A great player but has done very little in DFS since Pedro came into the side as the second forward.
N’Golo Kante (8500) – The most overpriced player in all FanDuel EPL. He has one goal and no assists. He is only worth considering when he faces Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City.
Marcos Alonso (7900) – If I can be convinced of anyone it is Alonso but I like him waaaaay more in DraftKings where he is listed as a defender and points are awarded for crosses.
Willian (7500) – Lost his place to Pedro. Hasn’t scored more than 5 FanDuel points in 2017.
Victor Moses (7400) – If he was $1k cheaper than maybe. Maybe.
Cesc Fabregas (7300) – If this were 2006, sure.
Now I think Chelsea are going to win easily and one or more of the players above is going to get a goal or an assist. But if we consider their prices, their high roster % and the sheer number of guys which spread out all the other stats… I’m leaving well alone. I understand if you can’t – someone here will have a great week – but I don’t like the odds or the upside.
So that leaves us with Sigurdsson (8500) who I think you should also fade this week! Take a look at his game log and you will see him underperforming against every top side. He is Swansea’s only creative outlet and Chelsea will send out Kante to lock him up. Players who match up against Kante SUCK on DFS. I call it ‘Kante’s Inferno’.
This leaves Ross Barkley (8300)*** as the best midfielder over $7k this week. He has a great matchup at home to Sunderland. I will have him in at least one lineup.
I am also keen on Michael Antonio (7300)** and Robert Snodgrass (7200)** against Watford. I had them ranked higher until news of Andy Carroll’s unavailability came out. That injury makes it harder for West Ham to score – though they will need to lean on these two even more which could negate that.
Etienne Capoue (6800)*** is nicely priced for a midfielder with 5 goals this season in a favorable home matchup. West Brom’s midfield against Bournemouth has some very attractive options with Matt Phillips(6500)** due a big game and Chadli (6200)** and Morrison (5500)** both under priced.
FanDuel EPL Forwards
It’s hard to pass on the expensive forwards this week with Romelu Lukaku (12300)**, Diego Costa (11800)** and Pedro (9900)** all with top match-ups. I cannot bring myself to give three star to any of these players because they will be so highly rostered. You will have to use at least one of them in cash games but I’ll have a lineup or two without any of them in GPP as I think Lukaku and Costa will be over 50% rostered.
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The biggest pricing surprise for me this week is Salomón Rondón (7700)** who hasn’t scored in 9 games and has only scored in two matches since September! I was expecting his price to come down to somewhere more appealing. Perhaps this is because he faces Bournemouth in an elite match up and is still West Brom’s top scorer with 7 goals on the season. His form is a huge red flag but I will roll the dice on him in one lineup on Saturday.
From the midrange forwards I like Troy Deeney (7300)** and Joshua King (7300)**. Deeney is at home against a leaky West Ham backline and a good bet for a goal this week. Since Callum Wilson has been ruled out for the rest of the season Joshua King has become Bournemouth’s primary goal threat. He faces West Brom away in a game that could easily become a shoot-out. I like his upside this week.
My favorite forward picks in week 26 are found much further down the price list. I love Watford’s M’Baye Niang (6400)*** who has looked a fantastic acquisition for the Hornets. He carved out a goal and assist for 43+ FanDuel points in his first home game against Burnley. His upside and price point are too good to ignore. Similarly Hull’s Oumar Niasse (6400)*** has come in from Everton to be a starter. He scored in his only home game for the Tigers so far and goes up against a Burnley side who have only kept one clean sheet away from home all season.
FanDuel EPL Gameweek 26 Lineups
Lineup 1
FWD: Lukaku – Everton
FWD: Rondon – West Brom
MID: Phillips – West Brom
MID: Davies – Everton
MID: Barkley – Everton
DEF: Naughton – Swansea
DEF: Brunt – West Brom
GK: Jakupovic – Hull
Lineup 2
FWD: Niang – Watford
FWD: Costa – Chelsea
MID: Snodgrass – West Ham
MID: Capoue – Watford
MID: Barkley – Everton
DEF: Maguire – Hull
DEF: Brunt – West Brom
GK: Jakupovic – Hull
Best of luck in your EPL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!