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UNC-Wilmington can take the next step in the NCAA Tournament

By Nathaniel Reeves

Mar 17, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; UNC Wilmington Seahawks guard Chris Flemmings (1) reacts against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half of a first round game of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 17, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; UNC Wilmington Seahawks guard Chris Flemmings (1) reacts against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half of a first round game of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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With mid-major conference tournaments set to begin, the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks will be one of the more intriguing potential Cinderella teams to keep an eye on.

One year after just missing out on a huge NCAA Tournament upset, the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks appear headed for another berth in the Big Dance with an even better team.

The Seahawks had largely become an afterthought in the CAA with no appearances in the NCAA Tournament for a decade following a brief period of success under current Clemson head coach Brad Brownell from 2002-2006. Kevin Keatts, an assistant under Rick Pitino on Louisville’s 2013 national champion squad, took the UNC-Wilmington head coaching job the following year and doubled the Seahawks’ win total in his first season.

UNC-Wilmington emerged as one of the best mid-majors in the nation last season and won the CAA title to earn a No. 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There, the Seahawks came up just short of an upset against mighty Duke in a thrilling 93-85 loss after leading by three at halftime.

This year’s Seahawks team is better across the board with a record of 25-5 pending Saturday’s regular season finale against Northeastern and clinched at least a share of the CAA title with a victory over surging Towson on Thursday evening. Behind a dynamic offense that has a pair of scorers that can go off on any given night, the Seahawks look capable of not only putting another scare into a four or five seed, but making a run to the second weekend.

After a rough patch in the middle of conference play with three losses in five games, the Seahawks are entering the conference tournament on a high note with three straight victories. UNC-Wilmington has three top 100 wins against East Tennessee State, Charleston and St. Bonaventure, plus a season sweep over the CAA’s third-best team in Towson.

UNC-Wilmington currently ranks 59th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency ratings, which trails only Gonzaga, Wichita State, Middle Tennessee State and Illinois State among mid-major teams. The Seahawks offense is much better than a year ago with the No. 23 ranking in adjusted efficiency, with some impressive numbers across the board compared to the squad that came so close last season.

Guards Chris Flemmings and C.J. Bryce have been the focal point of the UNC-Wilmington offense, as the duo has combined for just shy of 33 points per game and is used on over 45 percent of Seahawks possessions. Bryce has four separate games of 25 points or more with Flemmings chipping in three such contests, and the fact that the Seahawks have two scorers who can suddenly start shooting the lights out should concern any potential opponent.

Unlike so many other potential mid-major darlings, though, UNC-Wilmington features much more than just a star player or two. UNC-Wilmington has a deep offense with six players averaging at least 7.5 points per game, including four different scorers in double figures despite not playing at a particularly frenetic pace.

The biggest difference from last year’s team is the emergence of forward Devontae Cacok, who played just nine minutes per game a season ago. Cacok averages 12.3 points per game on 78.7 percent shooting from the field to lead the nation and brings down 21.2 rebounds per 100 possessions, making him one of the most efficient individuals in college basketball.

UNC-Wilmington shoots 47.8 percent from the field as a team, doesn’t turn the ball over, and is decent on the offensive glass to fuel the strong overall numbers. While the Seahawks shoot a middling 36 percent from beyond the arc, they have taken the ninth most 3-point shots in the nation and certainly have the ability to get hot at any point.

The Seahawks are not a good defensive team with the No. 176 unit in adjusted efficiency and allow opponents to shoot 47.5 percent on 2-point attempts, but there are still are a few things to like. Opposing teams have a tough time from the perimeter against the Seahawks, as they have allowed the 20th-fewest 3-point attempts in the country while taking the sixth-most themselves.

Beyond being the top team in the country at giving the ball away, the Seahawks force turnovers at a solid rate of 20.5 percent to rank 49th in the nation. Creating extra possessions and outscoring opponents from the perimeter should help UNC-Wilmington at least mitigate the damage opponents can do in the paint.

Just like with other potential Cinderellas, a lack of size could hurt the Seahawks in certain matchups — Duke center Marshall Plumlee was the difference in last year’s tournament game with 23 points — and their struggles from the free throw line could be a factor in close games. Still, this team has shown itself to be capable of competing with a program of Duke’s caliber, and the Seahawks’ offense is going to tough to handle if either Flemmings or Bryce can light it up from the outside.

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Keatts figures to get plenty of job offers this offseason, including a call from NC State, but is first ready to lead the Seahawks on a Cinderella run in just his third year of building the program.