2017 NFL Draft: DeShone Kizer is no Philip Rivers

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock believes Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer could emulate Philip Rivers at the pro level. Here’s a breakdown of where that opinion goes wrong.

NFLN’s Mike Mayock shared his feelings about a plethora of upcoming NFL draft prospects with the MMQB’s Peter King recently.  As expected, quarterbacks garnered a lot of discussion. Mayock revealed he’s had trouble ranking the top prospects – Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, UNC’s Mitch Trubisky and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes – in any specific order. His final selection of Kizer as his pick of the litter supports the notion that Mayock doesn’t have a good beat on the 2017 class.

"“I think he has the most upside, the highest ceiling.” Mayock told King. “But he is 12-11 as a starter at Notre Dame. He played a lot of bad football with the game on the line in the fourth quarter this year. That is not acceptable. But he is 6’5”, 235. He has that kind of prototypical franchise quarterback look, a Philip Rivers type … if he gets everything right.”"

That’s a big if at the end there. The truth is, Kizer is a far more ambiguous prospect than Rivers was coming out of college. His ceiling may be high because of his physical attributes and he may exude the necessary maturity to be a quarterback, but his playmaking abilities aren’t anywhere near the NFL’s standard. So, yes, Kizer may have a high ceiling, but also a fairly unstable floor that could fallout from under him at any time.

Physically, Kizer matches up with the comparisons to Rivers. Both stand 6-foot-5 and weigh north of 225 pounds. And the fact that Kizer, like Rivers, would have to incubate on an NFL roster for a season or two before taking the field also compares favorably to the long-tenured quarterback.

However, the similarities end there.

Kizer’s 12-11 career record is the first red flag. Notre Dame didn’t have its best years as a program when Kizer was under center and the losses don’t fall on him exclusively. Though when Kizer did have chances to put his team in control he often flubbed the opportunity. His three-interception performance in a 19-16 win over Boston College and benching against Stanford after opening up the second half with two picks are pockmarks on Kizer’s resume.

Compared to Rivers’ 15-8 record in his first two seasons, it doesn’t fare well. The Fighting Irish typically play a more challenging schedule, but they also generate more national attention from recruits that better equip them for that schedule.

Rivers was also a true freshman and sophomore in those two seasons and led multiple comebacks, including a 38-31 win double-overtime win against Arkansas State in his college debut.  Rivers possessed some visible moxie early in his college career. On the other hand, Kizer lacks the eye-popping presence Rivers did at a younger age.

Their draft profiles are also pretty telling. Rivers’ most glaring problems were his awkward throwing motion and tendency to float deep balls – two manageable issues. Kizer struggles seem almost endless. Indecisive with his reads and anticipating throwing windows, muscles the ball too often and gets punished with interceptions, fidgety in the pocket and takes too many unnecessary sacks. Those are all key areas that quarterbacks have to be at least viable at, but in his present form Kizer seems to be a little underdeveloped for the pro level.

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Kizer is still very raw as a prospect. This isn’t a problem if teams draft him as a backup for a season or two. But this is 2017. Half the NFL is quarterback-starved and looking to end their famine come April. It’s unlikely Kizer finds himself waiting out a season, let alone two, before taking the field.

It’s even more unlikely to think that he’ll live up to Mayock’s comparison of Rivers. Kizer took a faster track to the pros than Rivers’ did, opting to forgo two seasons with Notre Dame. With that, he loses opportunities to fine-tune his game. For Rivers, his junior and senior years were where he cemented his skill as a passer.

It’s a shame since it may relegate Kizer to the league’s lower tier of passers when he has the physical traits to elevate it higher. But, that’s life in the NFL, and most telling of all, it’s the route Kizer chose to pursue.