Can the San Antonio Spurs steal the No. 1 seed from the Golden State Warriors?
By John Buhler
Kevin Durant’s Grade 2 MCL sprain will not crater the Golden State Warriors in their final 20 regular season games, but it could make it more difficult than expected to retain the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference standings.
After falling 112-108 to the Washington Wizards on the road Tuesday night, the Warriors find themselves 50-10 through their first 60 games of the year. In the event that Golden State struggles to adjust to life without Durant absence, the likeliest team to leapfrog Golden State to No. 1 would be the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio is 45-13 through 58 games. The Spurs are well-coached, organizationally strong, and brilliant on the road. They have the basketball culture to do it, but do the Spurs have time to overtake the Warriors by mid-April?
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Not only do the Spurs have two more games left on the slate than do the Warriors, but they also have two more games head to head with the Warriors. Keep in mind that San Antonio and Golden State have only met once this year. Back on Oct. 25, San Antonio slaughtered Golden State to the tune of 129-100 at Oracle. That was a while back, but that kind of drubbing still resonates months later.
In short, San Antonio probably needs to sweep Golden State in their remaining two games to maximize its chances of attaining the No. 1. These two Western Conference juggernauts will meet twice more in San Antonio on Mar. 11 and Mar. 29. A 3-0 season sweep of the Warriors would get the Spurs two games closer to overtaking Golden State. So how do the remaining schedules look for these two Western Conference contenders?
Not counting the two dates left with San Antonio, Golden State will have eight more games against viable playoff caliber teams: at Atlanta Hawks (Mar. 6), vs. Boston Celtics (Mar. 8), at Oklahoma City Thunder (Mar. 20), vs. Memphis Grizzlies (Mar. 26), at Houston Rockets (Mar. 28), vs. Houston (Mar. 31), vs. Washington Wizards (Apr. 2), and vs. Utah Jazz (Apr. 10).
That five game stretch Memphis on Mar. 26 and Washington on Apr. 2 is absolutely brutal. It has the third meeting with the Spurs sandwiched in between on Mar. 29. A 2-3 or 1-4 stretch for the Warriors could open the door for San Antonio to make up more ground.
Through 60 games, Golden State has won 83.3 percent of its games and won 77.4 percent of its games away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is on pace to win over 68 games this season. However, we don’t know the effect Durant’s absence will have on this team. He’s played in all but one game with the Warriors before this injury.
The Spurs’ schedule left to be played isn’t much easier. Outside of the two home games with Golden State, the Spurs will face 11 viable playoff teams: vs. Houston (Mar. 6), at Oklahoma City (Mar. 9), vs. Atlanta (Mar. 13), at Memphis (Mar. 18), vs. Memphis (Mar. 23), vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Mar. 27), at Oklahoma City (Mar. 31), vs. Utah (Apr. 2), vs. Memphis (Apr. 4), vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Apr. 8), and at Utah (Apr. 12).
San Antonio has three games left against Cleveland and Golden State. The Spurs beat Cleveland earlier in the year at Quicken Loans Arena, 118-115 in overtime on Jan. 21. However, San Antonio still has three games left against Memphis. The Grizzlies pummeled the Spurs 89-74 back on Feb. 9, their only meeting so far between Southwest Division rivals.
Through 58 games, San Antonio has won 77.5 percent of its games and won 78.8 percent of its road games. San Antonio is on pace to win almost 64 games this season. To simplify it, the Spurs do have time and opportunity to overcome the four-game deficit to reach the top seed in the West. However, it is more contingent on the Warriors struggling than anything. The other big question mark is how much the seeding matters to the Spurs and whether they’re willing to push their starters to try and lock down homecourt advantage.
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These two teams’ remaining schedules are comparable. San Antonio does have edges in playing better against better competition, winning on the road, and having two more games that do the Warriors. However, the Warriors will need to play down to the season-long level of the Grizzlies or the Toronto Raptors, winning roughly 59 percent of their games, to give the Spurs a chance to overtake them. The chances of that happening are slim, but totally possible.