College Basketball Bracketology 2017: Week 17
Winning seven games in a row, in partnership with recent losses by Villanova and Gonzaga, has Kansas enjoying the view from the top as my No. 1 overall seed this week. Winning 27 out of 30 games against the eighth toughest schedule, per KenPom, is a chip on the Jayhawks’ shoulders, and beating Kentucky in Lexington remains one of the strongest signature wins in any team’s back pocket.
Despite the losses, I never considered dropping the Wildcats or Bulldogs off the top line, but that might be a greater reflection of the teams on lines two and three than anything else. The ACC’s upper-echelon have taken bites out of each other all winter, ditto for the best in the Pac-12, and Kentucky hasn’t quite done enough to warrant the jump.
The results of the conference tournament schedule could alter things, but fans of Villanova and Gonzaga should feel OK about finishing with one-seeds. The Bulldogs lost on their home floor to BYU on Feb. 25 on a tough shooting night — 16-of-29 from the free throw line, 3-for-16 from behind the arc — which is about as bad a loss as Gonzaga could afford to have in the lackluster WCC. Gonzaga should do itself a favor and win the conference tournament to guarantee its spot on the first line.
North Carolina might have a better resume, pound for pound, than Gonzaga, but the Tar Heels delayed their ascension by scoring 43 points in a loss to Virginia. It was a season-defining win for the Cavaliers, who had slipped out of the conversation for a No. 5 seed or better in recent weeks. North Carolina moved to 25-6 overall and13-4 in the ACC. If UNC wins the ACC Tournament next week, that should be enough to move to the second-or third-overall seed over the blemished Bulldogs.
Last Four In:
Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Illinois State
First Four Out:
Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Indiana
The Pirates (19-10, 9-8) are oddly close to the edge for a 19-win team, but until recently they had one win against the RPI Top 50, and that was back in December to South Carolina. Seton Hall has done well to add wins over Creighton and Xavier in February and move its record against the RPI Top 100 to 9-9 — including appreciating victories against California, Marquette and Providence.
I’ve largely ignored Vanderbilt down the stretch, but a recent four-game winning streak — interrupted by Kentucky on Tuesday — has Vandy above .500 overall and in the SEC. Wins over Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas and South Carolina are a solid quartet atop its resume, but Vanderbilt could use a rallying performance in the SEC tournament to ensure something on Selection Sunday.
To me, Syracuse is still out in front of Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. The Orange have beaten Florida State, Virginia and Duke, and they are just as bad on the road as their flawed counterparts. It’ll be fascinating what the committee decides to do about sub-.500 ACC teams like the Demon Deacons and the Yellowjackets — programs that benefit from the quantity of games against quality teams more than anything else.
Compare their resumes with Illinois State, who has won 25 out of 30 games without beating anybody of note. What’s more impressive: resigned mediocrity in an elite conference or excellence in a subordinate conference left behind by the corporate-friendly Big-5 leagues?
Rhode Island is just behind Illinois State despite a nice win over VCU. Losing to Fordham and finishing comfortably behind the Rams and the Dayton Flyers in the A-10 will likely be Rhode Island’s undoing. Indiana beat Northwestern on Feb. 25, but going 6-11 in the Big Ten is not going to cut it.
Onto the bracket…
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Texas Southern
(2) Oregon vs. (15) East Tennessee State
(3) Florida vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) Butler vs. (12) Vermont
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Marquette
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Virginia Tech
(8) Maryland vs. (9) Xavier
It’s not accurate to say that losing to Kentucky takes the wind out of the sails of the Florida Gators, previously winners of 10 straight, including a win of their own over the Wildcats. If Florida mounts the SEC in the conference tournament, it could contend for a No. 2 seed, but barely. The Gators are only 5-6 against the RPI Top 50, and catching Kentucky on an off night, at home, is what separates Florida’s resume from teams on the fourth and fifth line.
As stated above, Virginia netted a big win over UNC. The Tar Heels scored .74 points per possession and managed just six offensive rebounds, while the Cavaliers had four turnovers and outscored their opponent by 18 points behind the arc. The victory showed the best version of Tony Bennett’s team, and even with nine losses, seven of which came in the ACC, Virginia’s fastball (changeup?) is as good as anybody’s.
Butler is enjoying a four-game winning streak that included taking down No. 1 Villanova. The Bulldogs are a damn good offensive team, scoring 88 in a win over Xavier, and posting a .604 eFG% in their 74-66 win over Villanova. Staying in the Big East, Marquette beat Xavier on Feb. 18, a nice notch in their belt as Selection Sunday draws near. The Musketeers, up to 11 losses, are safe despite losing five in a row down the stretch, but their ceiling is falling in terms of seeing.
I switched Oklahoma State/Iowa State after the Cyclones defeated the Cowboys on Tuesday. Iowa State is up to 20 wins, riding a six-game streak that includes victories against Kansas State, TCU and Baylor. Both teams feature elite offenses with gifted shooters and playmakers. Monte Morris had a 12-9-11-2-3 in the victory, setting the table for many of Iowa State’s 15 3-pointers.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) North Dakota
(2) Arizona vs. (15) CSU Bakersfield
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Princeton
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) UT Arlington
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Syracuse/Illinois State
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) UNC Wilmington
(7) Miami (FL) vs. (10) Northwestern
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Michigan
The Badgers have lost four out of five games, running into desperate Big Ten schools in need of resume boosters. Wisconsin doesn’t have a bad loss, but has missed opportunities to jump into the top four seeds with a 3-6 record against the RPI Top 50; its best wins are Michigan, at Minnesota and Maryland on Feb. 19.
Creighton beat Wisconsin head-to-head, and both teams have seven losses with the Bluejays dropping three of four games. Creighton’s recent stretch featured losses against comparably desperate teams (Seton Hall, Providence) as well as Villanova.
Miami (FL) and Arkansas, to their credit, have firmly moved themselves off the bubble with great play. The Hurricanes beat UNC in January, then proceeded to go 6-2 in February, with wins over Virginia and Duke. The Razorbacks are up to 22-7, 11-5 in the SEC, with their biggest win coming on the road against South Carolina.
UT Arlington is a mid-major leader with a chance to grab a decent seed so long as it wraps up its conference tournament. Beating Saint Mary’s in December has long been the team’s claim to fame, but the Mavericks have won 11 of 12 and could close the regular season at 23-6 against Division 1 teams. KenPom only has the Mavericks ranked 72nd in adjusted efficiency margin, but ask Arkansas, which only won by four at home to UT Arlington, if the Mavericks are a tournament team.
Michigan and Northwestern are squarely in the field. The Wolverines are 9-7 in the Big Ten, winning five of six including a confidence booster over Purdue. Hitting 11 3s gave Michigan an eFG% of .645 against Purdue, ranked by KenPom as the 17th best defense in the country. Beating Wisconsin earlier in February was huge for Northwestern, as it took some of the string away from losing three of its next four games.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Irvine
(2) Louisville vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) Duke vs. (14) Nevada
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Akron
(5) SMU vs. (12) Seton Hall/Vanderbilt
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) California
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Michigan State
An eight-game winning streak was snapped by questionable losses against Syracuse and Miami, but Duke gutted out the win over Florida State on Tuesday. I had Duke as a No. 4 seed before beating Florida State. The Seminoles fell behind early, but came on in the second with a 47-point effort. It wasn’t enough to overtake the Blue Devils, who can get points from so many sources — 22 from Frank Jackson, 17 from Luke Kennard, 15 from Jayson Tatum, and, uncharacteristically, just two points in 16 minutes from Grayson Allen.
The Seminoles are 9-3 against the RPI Top 50, including a 16-point win over Duke in January, but the Blue Devils had yet to peak. In addition to non-conference wins against Michigan State and Florida, Duke has beaten Notre Dame, UNC and Virginia down the stretch of the ACC schedule. Florida State hasn’t traveled well, losing five of its past six road games, with the lone win coming against afterthought Clemson.
The Mustangs have won 12 straight games and are up to No. 16 in KenPom’s overall rankings. SMU does not have much in terms of quality wins outside of beating Cincinnati on Feb. 12, but SMU is 8-4 against the RPI Top 100.
Cincinnati lost to Central Florida on Feb. 26, really hurting its case for a No. 5 seed or higher. The Bearcats’ best win, beating Iowa State on the road, has been appreciated, and a January win over Xavier is complimentary. Beating Houston at home on Thursday before the conference tournament would go a long way for Cincy jumping back onto the fifth line.
South Region
(1) UNC vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) UNC Asheville
(3) UCLA vs. (14) Bucknell
(4) Florida State vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Belmont
(6) Iowa State vs. (11) Providence
(7) Minnesota vs. (10) USC
(8) Wichita State vs. (9) VCU
All of a sudden, everybody realized UCLA was underrated. Lonzo Ball and the Bruins have been the country’s best offense from beginning to end, although watch out for Oklahoma State, narrowing the gap, per KenPom, to .2 on his adjusted offensive efficiency rankings — and the team is 11-3 against the RPI Top 100. Its three losses were all to reputable teams — at Oregon, Arizona, at USC — and UCLA has beaten all three of those teams, in addition to Kentucky and Michigan in the non-conference.
If UCLA won the Pac-12 Tournament, it would not surprise me — well, OK, maybe it would a little — if the Bruins captured the fourth No. 1 seed depending on how the rest of the country fared.
Minnesota has been streaky all season, currently riding seven wins in a row, including a 14-point victory at Maryland. The Gophers kept their turnovers low, made eight 3s and got to the free throw line (17 of 20), scoring 1.18 points per possession against the Terrapins. With a 13-7 record against the RPI Top 50, including another strong road win, 91-82, against Purdue, Minnesota has taken themselves out of the Nos. 8/9 matchup and then some.
Wichita State has won a dozen games in a row; the team is also just 2-4 against the RPI Top 100, and only Illinois State, of the two teams they have beaten, could make the tournament. But with a bubble this bad, the Shockers are not in danger, even if they lose their conference tournament to Illinois State. Jerry Palm of CBS strongly disagrees — he knows far more about any of this than I do — but in what feels like an unprecedented bundle of 12-14 loss bubble teams, my money is on the committee rewarding Wichita State’s wins regardless of its resume’s hollowness.
Providence is in the field after winning five in a row, including victories over Butler, Xavier, Creighton and Marquette — about as impressive a run of conference wins as any non-power 5 school could manage. The Friars won’t blow anybody away scoring the basketball, but Jalen Lindsey is scorching the net from deep, hitting 2.9 3s per 40 minutes at 46.8 percent. Teams seldom get to the foul line against them, and the Friars are second in the Big East in opponents’ scoring.