FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 2
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s three game slate which kicks off at 8:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday Night’s slate saw scores drop drastically for the second time in three nights as the winning score only put up 330.7 FanDuel points which is well below the season average! Over the first 102 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 102 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Picks and Pivots ended up above the cash line for the night as a result of the Nikola Jokic/Anthony Davis core we built around as Jokic dropped 45.8 FanDuel points and The Brow put up 54.3! The lead up to lock was one of the crazier ones I can remember as all day we were waiting for value to open up and about 30 minutes before lock we got word that Jamal Murray ($3,500) would start at PG for Denver and Malcolm Brogdon would start at PG for the Bucks. With the Nuggets/Bucks being a game we wanted to stack, I very quickly moved to stack that back court which allowed me to not only fit in Jokic/Davis, but also gave you the flexibility to fit in Giannis(dud!) as part of a larger Denver/Milwaukee stack!
Last night serves as a great reminder of the importance of keeping up on the late news prior to lock. The Murray news was somewhat expected as Jameer Nelson‘s injury news broke earlier in the day and I made sure to build a few dummy lineups with him included so I could easily pivot to him if we got confirmation. Ultimately I only ever play my two Picks and Pivots lineups, but having a few shells in draft (or even just written down) allows you to pivot to news as it breaks much easier!
Let’s look forward to tonight’s slate where although we only have three games, all of them have 218+ team totals so we can expect ALOT of fantasy goodness!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Looking over this slate, my initial reaction is that even though we only have three games, all six teams in action are in legitimate great spots and we can realistically mix and match our exposure from any of the teams. What is most interesting though is the concentration of talent that is in the back-court tonight as the majority of the “must-have” players are guards and the Forward/Center positions are much murkier.
Russell Westbrook ($12,800) and Stephen Curry ($10,600) There is simply too much opportunity cost tonight in getting your point guard picks wrong so my recommendation is paying up and building your lineup around the two best plays on the slate!
Westbrook’s price is high, but on a short slate like this remember that raw points matter (more so than multipliers) and Westbrook has the clearest path to being the top scorer on the night! With Victor Oladipo out with an injury (and still questionable for tonight), Westbrook is simply on fire, having put up 63+ FanDuel points in each of his last four games with a massive 45% usage rate. Over the last week, Westbrook is putting up an insane 1.72 fantasy points per minute and gets to face Damian Lillard who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG on the slate. Fade at your own risk!
The big news over the last 24-48 hours has been the injury to Kevin Durant, who is out for what could be the remainder of the regular season. From a DFS perspective, we know this means a massive boost to the fantasy game of Stephen Curry who sees a 6% usage boost and leads the team with a 36% usage rate while putting up 50.4 FD points per 36 minutes. The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate against the Bulls and I would expect a monster night for Curry who should have no issue abusing the combination of Rajon Rondo/Jerian Grant.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Patrick McCaw ($3,500) With the injury to Kevin Durant, it is widely expected that Patrick McCaw will step into the starting SF spot for Golden State and at minimum price, he makes for an elite punt play that will allow us to easily fit in Westbrook/Curry.
McCaw saw 24 minutes of run with Durant off the floor on Tuesday Night and saw a similar amount of run when Durant missed the Brooklyn game a few days ago so this seems like his likely allotment of minutes which means we should keep our expectations in check. McCaw has put up 5x value when playing roughly 24 minutes as he did against Brooklyn but was has put up 6x value in the two recent games where he saw 28 or more minutes.
McCaw should get enough run for a safe 5x floor on this slate and with any added run could flirt with 6x value as he has in earlier match-ups for Golden State!
Alex Abrines ($3,500) With Victor Oladipo out, Abrines has stepped into the starting SG role for Oklahoma City and has been a great punt value play as a result. Although he put up a dud last time out against Utah (who doesn’t against the Jazz), he had played 33 minutes a game over his previous two contests and put up a whopping 25 shot attempts, including 18 three-point FGA.
Portland is ranked 26th in DvP to opposing SG’s on the season, so this is a match-up we should be able to exploit assuming Oladipo is out again!
If Oladipo does play, you can easily pivot to Allen Crabbe ($3,500) who is quietly playing massive minutes for Portland. Crabbe has played 30+ minutes in four of his last six games, averaging over 17 FD points per game in those contests which outs him right at 5x value.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Maurice Harkless ($4,800) Small forward essentially comes down to Jimmy Butler at $9,000 or drop down to the mid-tier. I expect on FanDuel, with the position scarcity, Butler will be the highest owned player on the slate but I am not paying $9k for a player who has not put up a 50+ FanDuel point in over a month!
Instead I am looking to play in the mid-range here and Harkless may be one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the slate. With Evan Turner out with an injury, Harkless is logging major minutes, having played 36 or more in three straight games. Over that time period, Harkless is averaging 26.5 FD points per game which would exceed 5.5x value at this price point.
The last time Portland played OKC and Evan Turner was out, Harkless dropped 30.8 FanDuel points on Oklahoma City and I see no reason based off his recent performance not to expect similar results tonight!
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,600) Charlotte is littered with solid match-ups tonight as they see one of the biggest pace increases on the slate against the up-tempo Phoenix Suns. Any time the Hornets are in a pace up game, I love to target MKG who has significant upside in this match-up.
Box score watchers may look at his last two games where he played less than 30 minutes a night and only averaged 16 FD points and think he should be avoided, however MKG had racked up double-digit boards in the three games prior, putting up over 30 FD points in each of those games!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Draymond Green ($8,200) After locking in Westbrook/Curry, my next step was to slot in Draymond Green who I expect will absolutely destroy the under-sized Bulls interior tonight! Green has really turned his game up in recent contests, having put up over 45 FanDuel points per game while averaging 14 points, 7 rebounds, 12.5 assists and 3.5 steals over his last two games.
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We saw what elite big men can do against the Bulls interior as Nikola Jokic just dropped a triple-double against this very same Chicago team and at this price point, he is a lock and load for me without Durant.
Enes Kanter ($5,900) Over the last week, Enes Kanter has re-joined the Thunder lineup and is second on the team with a 30% usage rate while putting up over a fantasy point per minute! Kanter is averaging 32 FanDuel points per game over his last two contests and gets to face off tonight with a Portland team that is under-sized.
Power Forward is littered with risky options tonight like Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic (who burned the world last game) so paying up may be not only the safest strategy but also a contrarian one as people look for bargain plays at this spot.
Alan Williams ($4,900)/ Alex Len ($5,000) With Tyson Chandler on a string of DNP-CD’s, the Phoenix front-court has fallen with Len and Williams and both are in play within this roster build. Len may be the “safer” option as the starting center but Williams, “The Big Sauce” has the higher upside from a GPP perspective!
Williams comes off the bench but has shown his ability to fill up the stat-sheet, as he dropped a massive 17 point, 15 rebounds 45 FanDuel point outing against the Bucks just two games ago. I have no problem going back to the well here for only $4.9k against a Hornets team that is utilizing Frank Kaminsky at center with Cody Zeller coming off the bench as he builds his minutes back up!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the leate breaking lineup and roster news on our Twitter account throughout the day!