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MLB 2017: One X-factor for each team

By Brad Berreman

September 7, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) runs after he hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sport
September 7, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) runs after he hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sport /
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Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

Philadelphia Phillies: SP Aaron Nola

Nola started last season in phenomenal fashion, with a  2.65 ERA, a 9.8 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 over his first 12 starts (78 innings). But a dramatic drop-off came after that, with a 9.82 ERA over his next eight starts that was partially driven by bad luck over that stretch (.464 BABIP against). In late-July, Nola was placed on the disabled list with a right elbow issue and missed the rest of the season.

Nola was diagnosed with a low-grade strain of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his elbow and a flexor sprain in his right forearm. He is apparently fully healthy, and expected to pitch in his first Grapefruit League game this week.

Nola’s strikeout rate (9.8 K/9 last season), excellent control (2.4 BB/9) and great ground ball rate (55%) point to his ace potential. His 3.08 FIP last season reflects a lot of bad fortune too, even as he likely dealt with a physical issue before being shut down for the season.

The Phillies made some notable offseason additions, trading for pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder/second baseman Howie Kendrick while signing outfielder Michael Saunders. But any chance for a return to playoff contention will be driven by Nola’s ability to lead the starting rotation as a legit No. 1 starter, and that will largely rest on the continued health of his elbow.

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