MLB 2017: One X-factor for each team

Tampa Bay Rays: SP Alex Cobb

Cobb has essentially lost the last two seasons to Tommy John surgery back in May of 2015, making just five starts with an 8.59 ERA upon his return last season. But that didn’t stop some early offseason trade rumors from coming, as pitching-hungry teams came calling to the Rays in the midst of a thin free agent market for starting pitching, and Cobb will become a free agent next winter.

Over 49 starts during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Cobb posted a 2.82 ERA with an 82 K/9 rate and a 2.7 BB/9 rate. His ground ball-oriented profile remained in his limited sample after returning to action last year, with a 52.5 percent ground ball rate, so being further removed from Tommy John surgery may be all it takes for Cobb to recapture his previous form.

The Rays have virtually nowhere to go but up after a 94-loss campaign in 2016, and their pitching will have to lead any rebound back to playoff contention or they will be trade chips again before too long. Among Tampa Bay’s stable of starters Cobb seems to have the widest range of potential results, and his showing will say a lot about the team’s win-loss record in 2017.