Meet the Northwestern Wildcats: March’s first Cinderella story
By Chris Stone
After a dramatic finish against Michigan, Northwestern is the first great story of March
This March’s first Cinderella story was born on the first day of the month, its slipper crafted on a clipboard with 1.7 seconds remaining in the Northwestern Wildcats’ penultimate home game of the season.
On that surface, assistant coach Brian James — the former high school coach of Northwestern’s current head coach Chris Collins — drew up a Hail Mary play that produced a slipped screen, a full court pass that would make most Big Ten quarterbacks jealous and a graceful finish at the rim to give the Wildcats a much-needed 67-65 win over the Michigan Wolverines.
“The Play” that produced one of the most emotional court storms to ever take place in Evanston almost certainly guarantees that college basketball history will be made next Sunday as Northwestern is set to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history.
The Wildcats don’t have the most glistening resume. They have four RPI top 50 wins, which is good, but not great. 23 teams in the country have more. Before their victory over Michigan, their best wins had come against Dayton, Wake Forest and Wisconsin.
Wednesday’s win, though, was huge. It erased the memory of a woeful February that included a run of five losses in seven games that threatened to keep Cinderella from ever getting to the ball. The path may not have been pretty, but all that matters is Northwestern seems to have reached the right ending. That’s also a pretty apt description of the Wildcats’ play on the court.
Big Ten basketball is well-known for its plodding pace and physicality. The conference as a whole has ranked in the bottom six nationally in tempo in each of the 16 years of KenPom’s existence. This season, it has tied its highest mark ever — 26th out of 32 leagues.
Northwestern fits the mold. The Wildcats ranked 294th out of 351 Division I teams in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. They’ve frequently played even slower under Collins. It’s a trend that defies the more modern shift towards up-tempo, pace and space styles that emphasize putting a high number of points on the board.
This team instead butters its bread on the defensive end of the floor. The Wildcats allow just 64.7 points per game (31st nationally) and an adjusted 95.1 points per 100 possessions (28th nationally). They employ a sort of bend, but don’t break strategy that seems to emphasize limiting offense in the paint as its first priority rather than being aggressive hunting for turnovers.
That’s not to say Northwestern isn’t assertive with its ball pressure. It is. The team wants to make it difficult for opponents to throw entry passes and takes away easy perimeter looks — opponents have made just 32.9 percent of their 3s this season — but it doesn’t generate turnovers at a high rate. The Wildcats ranked 202nd nationally in defensive turnover rate, creating one on just 18.1 percent of possessions.
Northwestern is excellent, though, at denying quality scoring opportunities. Opponents have averaged a meager 0.80 points per possession (PPP) in halfcourt situations. That mark ranks 23rd nationally, per Synergy Sports, not far behind noted stalwarts like the Baylor Bears and Louisville Cardinals.
The Wildcats’ success centers around making what are typically high percentage looks more difficult. Although opponents have attempted nearly one-third of their total non-post-up halfcourt shots at the rim, they’ve averaged less than one PPP (93rd percentile) on those plays. Gavin Skelly and Dererk Pardon, Wednesday’s hero, are the major reasons why. Both Skelly and Pardon are averaging nearly three blocks per 40 minutes this season. Even freshman Barret Benson (3.2 blocks per 40 minutes) can get in on the action in his limited 8.1 minutes per game. That kind of rim protection makes it difficult for teams to convert easy buckets and typifies Northwestern’s hard-nosed defensive effort.
Keeping points off the board, of course, is not enough to win a basketball game. You have to score some of your own as well. The Wildcats’ offense is run primarily through three players — Bryant McIntosh, Vic Law and Scottie Lindsey.
McIntosh is the team’s point guard who averages 14.2 points and 5.4 assists per game. With a 42.4 effective field goal percentage, he’s far from an efficient scorer. Like any high volume scorer, though, he’s capable of putting points on the board, but the Wildcats are just 5-4 this season in games where he’s scored 20 or more points. Still, he’s the cog that makes the machine run because of his ability to facilitate for everyone else. McIntosh’s 33.1 percent assist rate ranks 34th nationally and the team has an 11-1 record when he dishes out six or more assists.
Law is the team’s most prolific outside shooter. He’s made 39.8 percent of his 3-point attempts this season. He led the team with 18 points against Michigan and his presence helps open the floor for McIntosh to break down defenses.
Lindsey may be the Wildcats’ most valuable player. When he missed four games in early February, they went on a 1-3 skid and scored below their season average in each game. With him on the floor this season, Northwestern has been 17 points per 100 possessions better than its opponents, per Hoop Lens. With him on the bench, the Wildcats are two points per 100 possessions worse than those teams. No other rotation player has a similar effect. Lindsey is a willing, if inefficient jump shooter, and is best operating out of hand-offs or cutting to the basket.
As a whole, Northwestern’s offense is its biggest weakness. The Wildcats ranked 68th nationally in adjusted efficiency mostly because they don’t turn the ball over. Their 49.2 effective field goal percentage ranks 232nd in Division I. This is a team that wants to grind opponents down on defense and score just enough to win.
How will that fare in the NCAA Tournament? Nobody knows for sure. March is an unpredictable beast, but defense and good guard play can go a long way. The real question is how much does what happens over the next couple of weeks even matter?
For years, Northwestern fans have been tortured by near misses, but on Wednesday night things finally broke the Wildcats’ way. Nathan Taphorn’s pass and Dererk Pardon’s layup will be forever etched in Evanston lore. March’s first Cinderella, its slipper crafted on a clipboard, already has a fairytale ending.