DraftKings Early NBA Picks for March 4
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early NBA Picks for March 4
DraftKings found a way to get the 5pm game between Detroit and Philadelphia into their mix. They paired that with the two games that tip at 7pm eastern for an early tournament. Some of these picks will wind up in the main tournament as well.
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Beware of resting Cavaliers! On the second night of a back to back, it is entirely possible that Tyronn Lue attempts to rest the King and maybe Kyrie.
Due to the smaller size of the tournament, a 325 point showing could take down the whole thing. Who can help us reach that mark? Well, we need some luck. but smart research should at least help us win money back.
Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800): Giannis has averaged 51.4 DraftKings points against the Raptors in three games this season. The Raps don’t have much of an answer for him anywhere on the court. He has been starting at power forward lately, and has struggled with his production at the position. Word on the street is that Terrence Jones may suit on tonight, which could allow Giannis to move out to the perimeter where he is a much better player for fantasy purposes. Keep an eye on where he starts tonight.
Tyler Johnson ($5,700): Johnson actually outscored starting point guard Goran Dragic in the first game against Cleveland. He scored just one DraftKings point less than Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving in that game as well. If you want a point guard in that game, Johnson is far and away the safest bet. I would say that Kyrie will be better than he was in the first meeting just because Love is out, but I don’t think he will be enough better than Johnson to offset the $2,700 price difference.
Honorable Mention:
T.J. McConnell ($5,200): Now before you accuse me of not knowing what I’m talking about and close the page, hear me out. McConnell has 67.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Pistons this year. The uninspiring play of Reggie Jackson has created a position battle in the middle of the season, which is not a good thing for the Pistons. McConnell has managed to exploit it thus far. Can he do it again?
Cory Joseph ($5,100): Joseph hit 5x value last night for the first time in three games. The Bucks are solid at the point if Giannis moves back there. Of course, that will all depend on Terrence Jones. At any rate, Joseph is a hell of a lot more reliable than Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon torched many a lineup last night as the Jason Kidd rotations continue to frustrate DFS players. Go with the sure thing in cash games. Brogdon has nice upside if the play him the way they should. That really wont happen if Giannis starts playing minutes at the point again.
Dark Horses:
Ish Smith ($4,400): The strong play of Smith has earned him nearly a fair split in minutes. In reality, all it has done is limited the value of both players. Smith still has the better upside because he is cheaper (and playing better, for that matter). If you gamble on the situation, go Smith.
Deron Williams ($4,000): D-Will was one of the prizes of the buyout pool. In his second game in a Cleveland uniform last night, he dished out seven assists. He has yet to find his shot in Cleveland, but that will come soon enough. He could have major upside if Cleveland rests players.
My picks: Antetokounmpo(PG), Johnson(G), Johnson(PG), Joseph(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bet:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,700): The injury to Kyle Lowry is going to vault DeRozan to near the elite tier in DFS. He is no Westbrook or Harden, but he can put up numbers equal to any other guard besides those two. A subpar game against the Wizards on Wednesday helped drop his value, but last night he proved that was a fluke. DeRozan is back in the game, and Milwaukee doesn’t defend shooting guards well. It could be a detriment if Giannis is back on the perimeter, but DeRozan will still be the best at the position tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Dion Waiters ($6,400): Waiters was a horrid 1-11 from the floor last night and played just 20 minutes. I don’t think his ankle is quite healthy, so be sure to watch the injury report here. The Heat may hold him out entirely. If he is better by tonight though, he is an interesting option. He gets a shot at the team that drafted him, which could elevate him to another level if the ankle cooperates.
Dark Horses:
Norman Powell ($3,600): Powell has exploded over the last two games. He is the bench scorer that Terrence Ross was with a cherry on top. Powell has topped 7x value in each of those games. The Bucks are a decent defensive team, but so long as Powell is getting the minutes and shots he is getting, it will be impossible for him to get under value at this price. I trust him a lot more than Brogdon or KCP, that’s for sure.
Justin Anderson ($3,000): Nik Stauskas started but struggled with Gerald Henderson out. That left the door wide open for Anderson, who responded with 31.75 DraftKings points. He is the one you want with Henderson out again, not Stauskas!
My pick: DeRozan(SG), Anderson(F), DeRozan(SG), Anderson(F)
Small Forwards
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($10,900): If this were any normal game, I would say to stay away from LeBron in the second night of a back to back. There is too much of a chance of him being a late scratch or not playing many minutes. This is not an ordinary game though. It’s the Heat. And although there are no traces of The Big Three and the impact they had on the league, you know James want to give it to Pat Riley. He put up 54 DraftKings points on the Heat in the first meeting. He should be around that total again tonight.
Robert Covington ($7,300): The Sixers’ moves at the deadline were apparently addition by subtraction. Both Covington and Saric have exploded, making it hard not to play either one of them. Detroit is solid up front, but Covington has at least 5x value in nine of the last ten games. He has gone over 7x value an amazing four times in that span. While I don’t expect him to drop that at his current price, he could come near 6x value.
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,000): He’s back! And he wont be this price for very long. This is probably your last chance to have Middleton in the $6K range. He has 83.75 DraftKings points in the last two games, and played 64 minutes in those games. He may see a slight reduction in the second game of a back to back, but the Bucks need him right now. Expect another 28-30 minutes if he plays, which means 6x value is likely his floor.
Marcus Morris ($5,800): Morris has 70 DraftKings points on the Sixers in two games this year. He struggled against the trees in New Orleans, but he should be back to more his speed with the small-ish Philadelphia frontcourt. With Joel Embiid out, they aren’t nearly as imposing, which means Morris could have his way with them again.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Williams ($4,000): Remember him? The former second overall pick is finally rounding into a good bench player. He has topped 5x value in three straight games with Kevin Love out, and is the safer play to the enigmatic Channing Frye. He is a sure 5x value on a light day. You can’t go wrong here.
DeMarre Carroll ($3,900): The arrival of P.J. Tucker was supposed to push Carroll to the bench, but all it has done is water down the value of both players. Tucker played well against Milwaukee earlier this year with the Suns, but the Bucks were without Middleton, and he had a clear path to minutes. With Carroll the better defender and Norman Powell lighting it up from outside, Tucker could be the odd man out very quickly. That leaves Carroll the safer bet, but he has very little upside, even at this price.
My Pick: Williams(SF); James(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Dario Saric ($7,400): Saric wasn’t a starter in the first two games against Detroit. He did manage 34.5 DraftKings points in 47 minutes, which is below his output as a starter. Detroit is a tougher matchup for Saric, but with Love out, he is the best option at power forward in the early game. If you can afford him, he will outscore everyone else at the position, but he likely wont reach value.
Serge Ibaka ($6,600): Statistically, the Bucks are the best team in the league against power forwards. Ibaka doesn’t give them the respect they deserve. In three games against the Bucks this year, Ibaka has 98.25 DraftKings points. That leaves him at 5.5x value. His numbers are actually on the uptick in Toronto, so he could have an even better day. I tend to believe many will fade Ibaka, but he could come up big.
Honorable Mention:
James Johnson ($5,600): After his dud against Atlanta coming out of the break, Johnson appears to be back on track. He has averaged 33.5 DraftKings points per game since, and should have a field day against the Love-less Cavs.
Jon Leuer ($5,000): Leuer has not been consistent at all lately. He went from 6.25 DraftKigns points to close out February to 39.25 DraftKings points to start out March. The Sixers are less intimidating up front with Ersan Ilyasova gone and Joel Embiid out. This looks like a solid matchup for Leuer, but he is best left for a GPP dart throw. There is a lot of risk here.
Dark Horse:
Channing Frye ($4,200): Frye had exactly 5x value last night, which was the the first time he hit that mark since Valentine’s Day. His price has finally dropped to the point where he is a decent value play again, but only if you want to be contrarian to everyone that is playing Derrick Williams. Frye has little upside with how well Williams is playing.
My pick: Johnson(PF); Ibaka(PF)
Center
Best Bet:
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond has 92.75 DraftKings points in two games against Philadelphia, and the Sixers have given up even more points to centers since the trade deadline. Drummond has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. He will be highly owned on this slate, but you can find your separation elsewhere. He is a far better option than Hassan Whiteside, who was awful against Cleveland in the first meeting.
Honorable Mention:
Greg Monroe ($5,600): Monroe was a force against the Clippers last night, and has now blown past 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. He is still risky since he doesn’t start and the only player immune to Kidd’s whims is Giannis, but I don’t know how Kidd could justify not playing Monroe right now. He has been off and on against Toronto this year, but Monroe is playing his best basketball of the season right now. There is risk involved, but he could come up big.
Tristan Thompson ($5,100): Thompson had at least 22 DraftKings points in every February game. He has increased his production some with Love out as well. He doesn’t have a ton of upside unless the matchup is right, but this is a case where the matchup may be right. Whiteside struggles with opposing centers. LeBron stole the show in the first meeting, but there may be some left over for Thompson tonight.
Dark Horse:
Jahlil Okafor ($4,900): Okafor has 52.75 DraftKings points in 52 minutes against Detroit this season, which would make him a pretty good play today. However, Okafor has only played more than 22 minutes once since the trade of Nerlens Noel and Ilyasova. The Sixers are electing to use Richaun Holmes more at center for some reason. he usually gets close to value even with the diminished minutes, but he is a risk with the rotation going the way it is.
My pick: Drummond(C), Monroe(UTIL), Okafor(C), Thompson(UTIL)
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