DraftKings NBA Picks for March 4
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for March 4
Seven of the eight games in the NBA are in the main DraftKings tournament. We have a lot of stars to choose from! Who can we pair with a star or two to take home some money? Let’s take a look at the best bets!
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The money line was the highest point since Monday at 279.5 DraftKings points. My first lineup came in well over that at 296.75. The second was hurt by the Lakers being blown out and a terrible game by Malcolm Brogdon and Doug McDermott, but still just missed at 273.25.
The winning lineup was the highest of the week at 378.75 DraftKings points. A huge night by Russell Westbrook and five other players in the 40’s shot him up to victory. He also used the right Philadelphia guard in Justin Anderson while most chose Stauskas. That was the difference between winning 20 bucks and winning 20 thousand.
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,100): Harden’s price is depressed because of the tough matchup against Memphis, but he has 156 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies in three games this year. That would leave him a shade under 5x value, but the potential is always there for Harden to go off. He spends enough time at shooting guard that he isn’t nearly as risky of a play as other point guards against Memphis.
Damian Lillard ($9,600): Lillard only posted 33.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Brooklyn. However, he only played 28 minutes in a blowout win. There is potential for another blowout here, so Lillard carries some risk. That said, Lillard has been on a roll lately, so if it is a blowout, he will likely be a big reason why.
Kemba Walker ($8,500): Walker has been producing at a very high level lately. He has averaged 46.25 DraftKings points over the last three games on this west coast swing. Tonight’s stop is Denver, who happens to have a very tough time with opposing point guards. Walker could have another big night. 5x value seems likely.
Honorable Mention:
Ricky Rubio ($6,100): Even though the Timberwolves weren’t able to trade Rubio, they have still played him normal minutes going forward, which is a stark contrast to the Phoenix approach. Rubio has 74.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs so far this year. He also has at least 6 value in eight of the last ten games. The bad news is he was under 4x value in the two that he missed. Still, tonight he should be at or above 6x value for this price.
Tyler Johnson ($5,700): Johnson actually outscored starting point guard Goran Dragic in the first game against Cleveland. He scored just one DraftKings point less than Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving in that game as well. If you want a point guard in that game, Johnson is far and away the safest bet. I would say that Kyrie will be better than he was in the first meeting just because Love is out, but I don’t think he will be enough better than Johnson to offset the $2,700 price difference.
Dark Horses:
Cory Joseph ($5,100): Joseph hit 5x value last night for the first time in three games. The Bucks are solid at the point if Giannis moves back there. Of course, that will all depend on Terrence Jones. At any rate, Joseph is a hell of a lot more reliable than Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon torched many a lineup last night as the Jason Kidd rotations continue to frustrate DFS players. Go with the sure thing in cash games. Brogdon has nice upside if the play him the way they should. That really wont happen if Giannis starts playing minutes at the point again.
Jeremy Lin ($4,900): The Nets are in no hurry to rush Lin back, and the last thing they want to do is get him hurt again so he loses all trade value. Due to that he is still on a strict minutes limit. It is up to 20 now, but as bad as Portland has been against opposing point guards, Lin could do a lot of damage in 20 minutes.
Patty Mills ($3,600): Mills has gone over 26 DraftKings points in three of the last five games. The Spurs could ease off of Tony Parker a little more in the second game of a back to back, which could mean a few more minutes for Mills against a team that he has put up 51.5 DraftKings points against in just 46 minutes. Mills could be a very nice sleeper tonight.
My picks: Walker(PG), Mills(G); Rubio(PG), Johnson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,700): The injury to Kyle Lowry is going to vault DeRozan to near the elite tier in DFS. He is no Westbrook or Harden, but he can put up numbers equal to any other guard besides those two. A subpar game against the Wizards on Wednesday helped drop his value, but last night he proved that was a fluke. DeRozan is back in the game, and Milwaukee doesn’t defend shooting guards well. It could be a detriment if Giannis is back on the perimeter, but DeRozan will still be among the best at the position tonight.
C.J. McCollum ($7,500): McCollum had one of his better games of the year against Brooklyn the first time around. He picked up 46 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes. Guessing which one of he or Lillard will go off could be a difficult task, but McCollum is $2,100 cheaper. That makes him a much safer play.
Nicolas Batum ($7,300): Batum has been ice cold the last two games, going just 5-28 from the floor in those two games. He will see way more open shots against Denver, but that wont matter if he can’t knock them down. His rebound and assist numbers are still up where they should be. However, it may be best to fade him until his cold streak is over. Then again, if he can’t get it going against Denver, something may really be wrong.
Honorable Mention:
Dwyane Wade ($7,200): Wade went berserk on the Clippers the first time around. He racked up 49.5 DraftKings points on them, and they don’t defend the perimeter any better than they did then. With Butler being off and on lately, it has been the consistent Wade that has kept the team going. He had a tough time with Klay Thompson pestering him on Thursday. Things will be much easier tonight.
Dion Waiters ($6,400): Waiters was a horrid 1-11 from the floor last night and played just 20 minutes. I don’t think his ankle is quite healthy, so be sure to watch the injury report here. The Heat may hold him out entirely. If he is better by tonight though, he is an interesting option. He gets a shot at the team that drafted him, which could elevate him to another level if the ankle cooperates.
Lou Williams ($5,600): Williams picked Memphis apart when he was with the Lakers earlier this year. He posted 68.75 DraftKings points on them in just 48 minutes! Williams is still seeing that many minutes with his new team, so he should rebound nicely from his poor night against the Clippers on Wednesday.
Dark Horses:
Gary Harris ($5,500): The Bucks were the first team to hold him under 5x value since the break, but he still wasn’t that far under. More importantly, Harris still played 34 minutes. Expect him back to his normal 30-32 DraftKings points tonight against Charlotte. He is a cash game star, but provides some nice stability in GPP lineups as well.
Norman Powell ($3,600): Powell has exploded over the last two games. He is the bench scorer that Terrence Ross was with a cherry on top. Powell has topped 7x value in each of those games. The Bucks are a decent defensive team, but so long as Powell is getting the minutes and shots he is getting, it will be impossible for him to get under value at this price. I trust him a lot more than Brogdon, that’s for sure.
My pick: Williams(SG); McCollum(SG), Williams(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,900): If this were any normal game, I would say to stay away from LeBron in the second night of a back to back. There is too much of a chance of him being a late scratch or not playing many minutes. This is not an ordinary game though. It’s the Heat. And although there are no traces of The Big Three and the impact they had on the league, you know James want to give it to Pat Riley. He put up 54 DraftKings points on the Heat in the first meeting. He should be around that total again tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800): Giannis has averaged 51.4 DraftKings points against the Raptors in three games this season. The Raps don’t have much of an answer for him anywhere on the court. He has been starting at power forward lately, and has struggled with his production at the position. Word on the street is that Terrence Jones may suit on tonight, which could allow Giannis to move out to the perimeter where he is a much better player for fantasy purposes. Keep an eye on where he starts tonight. He is more valuable on the outside.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,800): The Timberwolves are statistically strong against small forwards, but Leonard has bucked that trend. He has 95.5 DraftKings points in two games against them so far this year. After two poor games coming out of the break, Leonard went off against the Pacers in the Spurs return home. In his encore performance, he topped 50 again against the Pelicans last night. Leonard is a safe, if not strong, play again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($7,000): Wiggins kept his streak of 20 point games alive against Utah on Wednesday, but he did little else in the game. The Jazz kept him off the boards and he had only one assist. On top of that, Wiggins has been held to just 39.5 DraftKings points over two games against the Spurs this year. He is still shouldering the scoring load with Zach LaVine out, so there is a chance he reaches 5x value tonight at this price. He is still a big risk. The thing is, most wont take the chance on him, so you will have the benefit of low ownership.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,100): Gallinari is averaging 31.5 DraftKings points per game since the break, and that includes tougher matchups with Memphis and Milwaukee. Charlotte struggles against small forwards who live on the perimeter like Gallinari does. He should reach 5x vlaue easily in this one.
Khris Middleton ($6,000): He’s back! And he wont be this price for very long. This is probably your last chance to have Middleton in the $6K range. He has 83.75 DraftKings points in the last two games, and played 64 minutes in those games. He has drawn a questionable designation for tomorrow, but Middleton insists he will play. Expect another 28-30 minutes if he plays, which means 6x value is likely his floor.
Dark Horses:
Maurice Harkless ($5,200): Harkless is still an afterthought on offense, but he attacks the boards better than most at his position which gives him a high floor. He has averaged 27.7 DraftKings points per game since Evan Turner went down, so he is a safe option for cash games. He lacks the upside that you prefer in GPP formats though.
Derrick Williams ($4,000): Remember him? The former second overall pick is finally rounding into a good bench player. He has topped 5x value in three straight games with Kevin Love out, and is the safer play to the enigmatic Channing Frye. He is a sure 5x value. You can’t go wrong here.
Denzel Valentine ($3,100): He burned many DFS players on Thursday night, so he likely wont be owned much at all tonight. The Clippers are a slightly better matchup for him, but as we saw on Thursday, there is significant risk involved here. I expect him to play more than the 14 minutes he turned in against Golden State. Whether he produces with those minutes or not remains to be seen.
My Pick: Williams(SF), Valentine(F); Gallinari(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): Saying that he has struggled against the Spurs when he still has 88.5 DraftKings points against them in two games seems a bit out of line, but it is still below 5x value. However, Towns has been on some kind of roll lately. He has averaged 52.2 DraftKings points over the last ten games, and he also kept his streak of more than 20 points scored intact. Some may be off of him because of the matchup, but I think Towns could be in for a big night.
Blake Griffin ($9,000): Griffin had 51.75 DraftKings points against the Bulls in the first meeting. The Bulls are actually worse up front than they were then. They don’t have Taj Gibson to throw in front of him this time around. Griffin has an open lane to dominate tonight. He needs to after a tough outing against Houston. Last night he did flirt with a triple-double against the Bucks. Look for another strong night from Griffin.
Honorable Mention:
Serge Ibaka ($6,600): Statistically, the Bucks are the best team in the league against power forwards. Ibaka doesn’t give them the respect they deserve. In three games against the Bucks this year, Ibaka has 98.25 DraftKings points. That leaves him at 5.5x value. His numbers are actually on the uptick in Toronto, so he could have an even better day. I tend to believe many will fade Ibaka, but he could come up big. Especially after seeing what Griffin did to them last night.
Zach Randolph ($5,900): Z-Bo is ripping it up lately. He has 116.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. Tonight he has another favorable matchup with the Rockets. Memphis has held his minutes to around 25-28 per game, which keeps him fresh and allows him to dominate second units. It should happen again.
James Johnson ($5,600): After his dud against Atlanta coming out of the break, Johnson appears to be back on track. He has averaged 33.5 DraftKings points per game since, and should have a field day against the Love-less Cavs.
Dark Horses:
Bobby Portis ($4,800): Portis exploded for 37.25 DraftKings points against the Warriors on Thursday. That means he will likely be highly owned tonight. The matchup with Draymond Green didn’t look good, much like the one against Blake Griffin tonight. If he does it again, he will be a cult hero in Chicago. If he does it again, it will be in someone else’s lineup. I’m not taking this big of a risk on someone who’s ownership could be around 25%.
Gorgui Dieng ($4,600): The Spurs are tough on paper, but Dieng has 65.5 DraftKings points on them in two games. Dieng struggled mightily against Sacramento and Utah, two teams that are pretty solid up front. This is another tougher matchup for Dieng. Do we trust the stats or the past history here?
My pick: Griffin(PF); Ibaka(PF), Johnson(F)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,500): Teams have been destroying Charlotte on the interior since they shipped out Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert. Now that Frank Kaminsky is out as well, Jokic could have a monster night against the undersized Hornets. He beat up on the undersized Bulls and Bucks to the tune of 113 DraftKings points. Don’t be surprised if he flirts with 60 tonight.
Marc Gasol ($7,900): His 37 DraftKings points average against Houston in three games this year is very average, but Gasol has the ability to go well above this. Take for example what was supposed to be a tougher game against Phoenix on Tuesday. Gasol racked up 50.25 DraftKings points in that game.
Honorable Mention:
Brook Lopez ($6,800): Lopez put up 38.5 DraftKings points in the first game against Portland, but their frontcourt ranks look a little different since then. Lopez has been able to go off here and there, but he is mostly right around 5x value. He could have a little tougher time with Nurkic, but probably not enough to keep him under 5x value. Just enough to lower his ceiling.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): Nurkic had a great all-around night against the Thunder on Thursday, picking up 18 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, five blocks, and two steals. His all around production has his price steadily climbing, but it is still too low. Especially against a Nets team that is the second worst in the league against centers.
Dark Horses:
Greg Monroe ($5,600): Monroe was a force against the Clippers last night, and has now blown past 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. He is still risky since he doesn’t start and the only player immune to Kidd’s whims is Giannis, but I don’t know how Kidd could justify not playing Monroe right now. He has been off and on against Toronto this year, but Monroe is playing his best basketball of the season right now. There is risk involved, but he could come up big.
Tristan Thompson ($5,100): Thompson had at least 22 DraftKings points in every February game. He has increased his production some with Love out as well. He doesn’t have a ton of upside unless the matchup is right, but this is a case where the matchup may be right. Whiteside struggles with opposing centers. LeBron stole the show in the first meeting, but there may be some left over for Thompson tonight.
My pick: Jokic(C), Nurkic(UTIL); Nurkic(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!