FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 4
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s seven game slate which kicks off at 8:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday Night’s slate saw scores skyrocket to 412.6, nearly 70 points higher than the previous days GPP winning score. Over the first 104 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 103 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.2 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
The big decision for Picks and Pivots on Friday was whether to build around Russell Westbrook and we argued he was worth every penny even at $13k. Well Westbrook did Westbrook things and went off for 83.9 FanDuel points at 31% ownership which is incredibly high for a slate that large. The pairing with DeMarcus Cousins, who put up 46.6 FD points at under 10% ownership allowed us to get to 302 FD points which was hit or miss cash depending on the contest you entered.
The winning GPP lineup had Westbrook but paired him with LeBron James who went absolutely nuts against Atlanta with 63.6 FanDuel points. The biggest pivot for the winning lineup was going away from Julius Randle/Kristaps Porzingis which ended up being the mega chalk at PF and both players busted with under 30 FD points!
Let’s get started on tonight’s Main slate, as we do have a lone 6pm EST game but we will ignore that and head right to the main course!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Looking over the Main Slate, there are two games that jump off the page to me and they are ranked 1-2 in combined team totals on this slate. The one spot I am looking to fade is Miami versus Cleveland, specifically LeBron James and Kyrie Irving who are coming off monster 60+ FanDuel performance. This will be the third game in four nights for Cleveland and the Cavs see a pace decrease and projected point drop versus their season average so I think this is the perfect spot to let others chase those two!
Damian Lillard ($9,200) Portland gets the enviable task of facing off against the Brooklyn Nets in the highest projected scoring game of the night and not surprisingly, the Blazers have the highest implied team total of any team on the slate. Portland is expected to score over 11 points more than their season average and see the largest pace boost of any team on this slate. The last time these two teams squared off, Portland put up 129 points so I would ensure you get Portland exposure here!
At just $200 more than Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard is a great pivot off Kyrie Irving and the match-up could not be any better. The Nets are dead last in DvP to opposing PG’s and Dame comes into this game in elite form, with 45+ FanDuel points in three straight games, including a 58 point outing against Detroit.
Kemba Walker ($8,500) The other game on my radar tonight is Charlotte versus Denver, which has the second highest combined team total and with only a 5 point Vegas spread, we should expect a close contest throughout.
The Nuggets are ranked 25th in DvP against opposing PG’s this season and this is a match-up/price point I simply cannot pass up for Kemba Walker. With Frank Kaminsky ruled out, the usage for Charlotte will funnel to the back-court, with Kemba leading the team with a 30% usage rate. Kemba comes into this game with 44 FanDuel points over his last two games which would exceed 5.1x value at this price point, giving him a very safe cash game floor and a match-up that screams GPP upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Nicolas Batum ($6,800) The price point has dropped to a level where we simply cannot ignore Batum and in a massive pace up spot against the 26th ranked defense against SG’s, he makes for an elite GPP stacking option with Kemba Walker.
The game log watchers are going to look at Batum’s recent play and see a run of game where he has less than 30 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight and may feel he is over priced. Dig in a little deeper and you will see that Batum is playing 35+ minutes a night and is shooting 15 or more shots per game so the usage is there, it has been the efficiency that has held him back lately, shooting 25% or worse from the floor in three of his last four games.
Batum is a career 44% shooter from the floor so I firmly believe that the numbers will trend back to his normal levels and when they do, the fantasy production will spike. I want as much as exposure as I can get to this game and knowing we want to attack Denver in the back-court, I am stacking the Hornets top twp plays who should shoulder the entire offensive load with Frank Kaminsky out.
Allen Crabbe ($3,500) Crabbe is one of my favorite SG punt plays and I use him regularly for a few very simple reasons. Crabbe plays massive minutes for Portland, having logged 30+ minutes in four of his last seven games and played 30 minutes the last time he played the Nets.
When Crabbe sees 30 minutes or more, he has averaged 17+ FanDuel points per game which puts him right at 5x value giving him a relatively safe floor as far as punt plays go and he has the massive upside in this match-up to far outperform that price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Wilson Chandler ($6,300) With Kenneth Faried out due to injury, Wilson Chandler has stepped into the starting PF spot for Denver and has played 36 minutes in two of his last three games. Tonight, Chandler gets to face-off with a Charlotte team that is ranked 26th in DvP to opposing PF’s and with no Frank Kaminsky on the floor, the Nuggets should be able to exploit a Hornets interior that just gave up 62 FanDuel points to Julius Randle.
Maurice Harkless ($4,800) Another Picks and Pivots favorite, Harkless will continue to be one of my favorite SF plays each and every night as FanDuel seemingly refuses to raise his price. With Evan Turner out with injury, “How Could You Be Moe Harkless” is logging major minutes each and every night, with 34+ minutes in each of his last four games.
Harkless is averaging 25.6 FD points over his last four games which exceeds 5.3x value at this price point and against the Nets tonight makes for an ideal one-off play or can be used (as I am) as part of a Portland stack for a very reasonable price.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($9,900) There are certain things that you can just count on when you read this coulmn and The Joker at under $10k in my lineups is one of those things! Jokic sputtered out of the All-Star Break but Mike Malone has seemingly remembered that Jokic is their clear best player and has ran him for 30+ minutes in each of his last three games. Jokic has responded with back to back triple doubles and tonight against a Charlotte team with no Frank Kaminsky…..I will have 100% exposure to Jokic in all formats.
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Bobby Portis ($4,400) If you have played DFS for any significant amount of time, you have likely been burned by the tantalizing upside of Bobby Portis. Can we finally safely jump on board with Portis tonight after back to back solid games where he has averaged 30 FD points per night?
The match-up with Blake Griffin and the Clippers is not one we want to go crazy targeting but Portis has hit 6x value in three of his last five games and the price point allows you to save significant salary while still rostering a high upside GPP play. If we get the sense that Portis will be chalk tonight, we could pivot to teammate Nikola Mirotic ($4,100) who had 30 FD points in the two prior games before Portis seemingly figured it out. Ready to roll the dice on the Bulls PF tonight?
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400) The Nuggets never could figure out how to make Nurkic and Jokic fit within their lineups but with Nurkic in Portland, we can safely start these two big men alongside each other in DFS tonight!
Nurkic has been a beast for Portland since he arrived with two games of 40+ FanDuel points and averaging 34 FanDuel points per night. Nurkic had one of his best games of the year his last time out with 51.4 FanDuel points on the back of 18 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 blocks against OKC. Tonight against the Nets, he has the ability to continue to flash that kind of upside and will be the number 1 center option in my lineup build tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!