So long restrictor plates, time to open things up at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
It’s become a cliche to say the Cup Series season begins in earnest, but that’s only because there’s some truth to it. The Daytona 500, for all its spectacle and significance, can also turn into a bug crapshoot, especially when wrecks take out half the field like fans saw last week.
That shouldn’t happen at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where higher speeds and less in-line drafting allows the field to spread out. Accidents will still happen, especially with a slick track looming and tire wear an annual concern, but they’re likely to ruin the days of one or two drivers at a time instead of nine or 10.
Kevin Harvick will start from the pole after bursting past what appeared to be a two-man duel between Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman during Friday’s final qualifying round. Harvick has won a Cup Series race at Atlanta before, but it’s been a while: since the spring of 2001, in just his third race in the No. 3 after taking over for the late Dale Earnhardt Sr.
An extra week could have teams more prepared for some of the new 2017 NASCAR rules, including the five-minute clock on car repairs and stages, which make their first appearance at Atlanta in the top series. Yesterday’s XFINITY and Truck Series races were considerably less drama-filled when coming back to the green and white checkered flag at the end of stages, and that certainly could be the case on Sunday as well.
Next: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 starting grid
WEATHER FORECAST:
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s for the entire race, though with a fair amount of cloud cover throughout. That could give the drivers slightly more grip, though that’s a relative term at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH:
- Jimmie Johnson – Hard to think he won’t be a factor since he won the previous two Atlanta races. He didn’t qualify particularly well, but that was the case in 2015 and 2016 too, and it didn’t matter.
- Rookies trying to bounce back – There are big expectations for Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones and Ty Dillon, but collectively, they had a day to forget at Daytona. With the uncertainty of plate racing behind them, look for at least one rookie to impress at Atlanta.
- Tires – Even during practice and qualifying, tire wear was on the minds of everyone in the garage, and now the cars have to start on the same set they used during qualifying. When combined with the unorthodox Toyota pit strategy last week, one wonders if earlier than normal pit stops are in the cards.
PREDICTION:
It’s hard to go against Johnson, who seems to have this place figured out. But the pick here is Kyle Busch, who had an impressive victory on Saturday in the XFINITY Series and was also fast in qualifying. If you want a driver with slightly longer odds, keep an eye on Kyle Larson. He’s got only one career victory but was in position to win the Daytona 500 before running out of gas, and he was also quick in the XFINITY race.