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Braden Holtby is clear Vezina Trophy favorite

By Dave Stevenson

Mar 4, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby (70) makes a save against the Philadelphia Flyers in the second period at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 4, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby (70) makes a save against the Philadelphia Flyers in the second period at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Braden Holtby won the 2015-16 Vezina Trophy. As an encore, he’s having an even better season this year.

Perhaps no NHL team is more cursed in the postseason than the Washington Capitals. Their postseason failures are the norm. Not only have the Capitals never won a Stanley Cup, they have yet to win a single game in the Stanley Cup Finals. Like previous teams, the Caps have the best record in the NHL. But this season, Washington has a not so secret weapon — goaltender Braden Holtby.

After being led almost exclusively by Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, the Caps finally have their franchise goaltender. Washington drafted numerous goalies hoping one of them would pan out. Semyon Varlamov threatened to bolt to the KHL, so he got traded to the Colorado Avalanche. Michal Neuvirth was never consistent. The Capitals traded those two because of their belief in Holtby. So far, he has been making them look extremely smart.

Even though Holtby won the 2015-16 Vezina Trophy, he struggled mightily at times. The driving force behind his Vezina case was wins. But this season, Holtby has a much stronger case that voters must take into consideration.

How much better has the bearded goaltender been this season? It’s difficult to track using traditional metrics like wins, goals against average, and raw save percentage because they have flaws. Wins tell you more about a team than an individual and skaters aren’t judged by their number of wins. Raw save percentage is much better, but not all saves are created equal. It doesn’t show the difficulty of saves. Goals against average doesn’t tell you anything total shots faced and save percentage tell you.

The table below compares Holtby’s low danger save percentage (LDSv%), medium danger save percentage (MDSv%), high danger save percentage (HDSv%), even strength save percentage (5v5Sv%), and goals saved above average (GSAA) this season to last season. It also notes where he ranks among goalies with at least 1000 even strength minutes this season and 2000 last season.

Last season, one could say Braden Holtby won the Vezina Trophy because he was on the NHL’s best team. This season, he’s the overwhelming favorite because he is the top goaltender in the league. Even the old school stats favor Holtby. He has as many wins as Dubnyk and considering he hasn’t lost in 2017 yet, expect him to finish with over 40 wins once again.

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The Capitals have been known as Ovechkin’s team for a very long time. Perhaps he has passed the torch on to Holtby.

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