NFL free agency, Combine lessons and throwback jerseys

NFL free agency starts in earnest on Tuesday, with the tampering period ready to yield huge deals, both of good and horrific variety.

Are you ready to spend heavily? For many of the 32 owners in the NFL, that is the question facing them come Tuesday afternoon, when the tampering period of free agency begins. While teams can’t officially come to terms with players not under their control until Thursday at 4 p.m. EST, many contracts in principle will be struck.

The first 72 hours of free agency are always fast and furious, with teams throwing around money like drunk frat guys in the VIP section. Except in this case, the money is millions, not a few hundred.

There will be plenty of free agents commanding top dollar. A.J. Bouye of the Houston Texans will receive a mint on the open market, a 25-year-old with shutdown corner abilities. In terms of dough, the same can be said for Johnathan Hankins and Bennie Logan of the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. Both lead a robust group of interior defensive linemen, including Dontari Poe, Alan Branch, Brandon Williams and others.

Some of the other big names looking to cash in include DeSean Jackson, Nick Perry, Tony Jefferson, Lawrence Timmons, Kevin Zietler, Larry Warford, Calais Campbell, Mike Glennon, Tyrod Taylor (maybe, the Bills hold his option), and Terrelle Pryor.

All of the above will get paid. The question is whether they are worth their high price tag. Last year, here are the top 10 deals in terms of overall contract value:

Malik Jackson, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 years, $90 million
Olivier Vernon, DE, New York Giants: 5 years, $85 million
Josh Norman, CB, Washington Redskins: 5 years, $75 million
Brock Osweiler, QB, Houston Texans: 4 years, $72 million
Janoris Jenkins, CB, New York Giants: 5 years, $62 million
Kelechi Osemele, OG, Oakland Raiders: 5 years, $60 million
Russell Okung, OT, Denver Broncos: 5 years, $52 million
Alex Mack, C, Atlanta Falcons: 5 years, $47.5 million
Damon Harrison, NT, New York Giants: 5 years, $46.25 million
Mark Barron, LB, Los Angeles Rams: 5 years, $45 million

Of those players, the only to win a playoff game was Mack. Mack and Osemee both made the Pro Bowl, while Harrison was an obvious snub, although he was justifiably named a first-team All-Pro. It should also be noted that Okung’s deal was basically a one-year deal with a four-year option, which Denver declined.

So what does that information mean? It says throwing around huge chunks of cash usually results in disappointment. Washington believed Norman was going to be the difference in becoming a contender. Instead, it won nine games again and missed the playoffs. The Jaguars spent lavishly on Jackson and others, only to be drafted in the top five once again. Barron has largely been a bust his entire career, while Osweiler might be the worst free-agent signing of all time.

Free agency remains most useful as a tool to supplement a team’s talent, not as its main resource. When teams try to build quickly with flashy names, it never works. Jacksonville can attest, as well as the Redskins, Raiders and Dolphins over the last 15 years. Oakland is only finally good now, and it is largely because of three draft picks in Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack.

If your team is spending wildly this week, pause before you celebrate. You could be buying a great player. More likely, you’re buying an expensive disappointment.

Power rankings

Teams that should revert to throwback uniforms

1. Los Angeles Chargers (powder blues)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (creamsicles)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Randall Cunningham era)
4. Miami Dolphins (originals)
5. New England Patriots (Pat Patriot)
6. New York Giants (1980s)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (originals)
8. Denver Broncos (Tom Jackson era)
9. Cleveland Browns (1980s)
10. Buffalo Bills (standing buffalo)

Quotable

"“I feel like I’m the best overall player in the draft, not just the best cornerback. That’s just the confidence I have in myself and my ability to play football,” Tabor said."

– Former Florida Gators standout Teez Tabor, on his abilities entering the NFL.

Some will say he’s a kid who needs to learn how to quiet down. This space says he’s exactly the kind of player you need, with the attitude to match. Tabor needs to understand he has plenty of work to do, but provided that’s the case, it’s a good quality to believe in yourself, especially at such a spotlight position.

Look for Tabor to go off the board in the first 20 picks of the first round. Interested parties in that range could (and should) include the Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.

Random stat

Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, the 1992 Seattle Seahawks had the worst single-season offensive output. That year, Seattle scored 140 points (8.8 per game).

For comparison, last year’s Atlanta Falcons scored 158 points … in its last four regular-season games.

Info learned this week

1. Saints looking to trade Cooks

Throughout December, Brandin Cooks was vocal about not being thrilled with his role in the Saints’ offense. Now, New Orleans is looking to move on from him, if the price is right. According to multiple reports, the Saints want a first-round pick, preferably in the middle or higher, per The Times-Picayune.

Although Cooks is 23 years old and coming off consecutive 1,100-yard seasons, that price seems high. Between this being a loaded class and the Saints’ offense perhaps inflating those numbers, it might end up being a second-round pick that wins the day should New Orleans decide it needs to part ways.

The Eagles and Titans are reportedly in the mix, along with the Patriots.

2. Myles Garrett will be the top pick

After destroying the combine to the tune of a 4.64 40-yard dash and a 41-inch vertical, former Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is all but a lock to go first overall to the Cleveland Browns come April 27. Cleveland, which should be the epitome of best player available, should run the card to Roger Goodell.

If Garrett goes to Cleveland, the first pick with intrigue belongs to the 49ers. Does general manager John Lynch go quarterback, or does he stick to the board and take a defensive star? If no quarterback goes in the first two picks, look for the first signal-caller to be taken by either the Bills or Cardinals.

3. Jonathan Allen sees his draft stock take a hit

The most important part of the NFL Combine for many teams is the medical evaluation. Unfortunately for Jonathan Allen, that part might have tripped up his rising stock. Allen reportedly has arthritis in his shoulders, something he says doesn’t concern him. However, NFL teams might be extremely worried, considering the ramifications of a missed pick in such a loaded draft.

If Allen begins to slip, he could be the annual player who goes into free-fall. Looking at the draft order, would a team like the Bengals grab him ninth-overall with Domata Peko leaving? How about the Detroit Lions, who may consider him to value to pass up at No. 21? It’s hard to see a talent like Allen, getting all the way to the 20s, but medical questions are poison in the draft.

4. Reuben Foster is in damage-control mode

All Foster had to do was show up to Indianapolis, perform well, and go home. Instead, the former Alabama star was sent home from the combine for reportedly getting into a heated confrontation with a hospital employee.

Foster will try to rectify the mistake this week with Alabama hosting its pro day on Wednesday, but the red flag will remain. The alleged outburst won’t cause him to slip out of the first round, but he may drop into the late teens, costing him millions from where he was originally slated to go by most experts.

5. Quarterbacks appear mixed bag

The quarterbacks took the field in Indy on Saturday morning, and it was an uneven performance. Of the notables, Deshaun Watson and Mitch(ell) Trubisky looked the best. Both had nice touch on their deep balls and showcased good footwork in their drops. Brad Kaaya also helped himself, throwing in rhythm.

Pat Mahomes displayed much-improved footwork, although he still has ways to go. Of the four main quarterbacks, it was DeShone Kizer who continuously had creaky mechanics and poor accuracy. He might be looking at the second round.

One name to remember: Joshua Dobbs. He’s got adequate size (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) athleticism and a lightning-quick delivery. He’s the sleeper of this class, and should go in the third round.

History lesson

From 1966-73, the AFC West and NFC East were incredibly lopsided. The Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs won each Western title, while the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys reigned over the East.

Incredibly, only two Super Bowl champions emerged from that group, with the Chiefs in 1969 and the Cowboys in 1971.

Parting shot

A hard lesson will likely be re-learned when the 2017 NFL Draft commences in April. If you have a need at quarterback, it only grows worse by drastically reaching. While most general managers know this many times over, that won’t stop them from breaking the rule.

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears should go nowhere near a quarterback with the second and third-overall respective picks. The New York Jets should swat away any notion of a signal-caller at No. 6. Even at no. 10, the Bills have far more pressing issues than a quarterback, but could feel forced if they release Tyrod Taylor.

No draft class showcased this sickness more than 2011. That year, four quarterbacks were selected i the first round. None, outside Cam Newton, were anything close to franchise-level. Still, the Tennessee Titans took Jake Locker with the eighth-overall selection. The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to nab Blaine Gabbert at No. 10. The Minnesota Vikings, feeling a run on busts, grabbed Christian Ponder two picks later. We know how that turned out.

The players selected in the No. 9 and 11 slots? Tyron Smith and J.J. Watt. Don’t reach for a quarterback.