Are the Washington Huskies headed for a Pac-12 dynasty, or was 2016 Chris Petersen’s best chance at a national championship?
After an outstanding career at Boise State, it didn’t take long for Chris Petersen to prove his coaching ability against tougher competition.
Petersen immediately made a name for himself with an undefeated season and infamous Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma in his first year as head coach of the Broncos before finishing his stint with a remarkable 92-12 record. Despite having a number of opportunities to leave for some of the most attractive jobs across the nation, Petersen was only successfully pried away by the Washington Huskies prior to the 2014 season.
The hire was universally praised and gave a dormant Washington program a reason to be optimistic following five middling years under Steve Sarkisian. Even so, Petersen had to show he was capable of maintaining that level of success in a power conference, both on the field and in recruiting.
Washington got off to a promising start in the first year of the Petersen era with a mark of 8-6, matching its highest win total from Sarkisian’s tenure. While the Huskies slipped to 7-6 in 2015 after losing four defensive players in the first 44 picks of the NFL draft, they showed some promise with the emergence of young players like Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin.
After receiving plenty of hype during the offseason, Washington went on to exceed expectations in 2016 with a 12-2 record and appearance in the College Football Playoff, where its defense held up admirably against might Alabama for much of the Peach Bowl. In just his third season at the helm, Petersen put together the team’s best season since 2000.
It’s easy to see why many feel Washington’s upward trajectory is only going to continue with more time under Petersen, and the program could perhaps even turn into a Pac-12 dynasty reminiscent of the Don James era. However, Petersen will face a challenge to match the same level of success as last year moving forward, as the Huskies will lose a number of core pieces.
Washington’s defense, which ranked among the best units in the nation, will be hit particularly hard by departures. The secondary will need to be completely re-built, as starting cornerbacks Kevin King and Sidney Jones are off to the NFL, while dynamic playmaking safety Budda Baker will likely be a first round pick.
While the Huskies are going to be in better shape on the other side of the ball with Browning, Gaskin, Lavon Coleman and Dante Pettis set to return, there are still a few concerns. Star receiver John Ross declared for the NFL Draft a year early, which will severely limit the explosiveness of Washington’s offense on the other side of the ball.
There’s still plenty of NFL-caliber talent on the roster, and younger players like Taylor Rapp and Vita Vea will ensure the defense doesn’t fall off too much. All of that has resulted in the Huskies being ranked somewhere around the No. 7-10 range in way-too-early preseason polls, as they appear to be just a step behind some of the elite teams in the nation.
Washington will be the favorite to win the Pac-12 North despite a Nov. 10 trip to Stanford, and another easy nonconference slate gives it at least a shot at a repeat trip to the College Football Playoff. Whether the Huskies can play at a high enough level to beat USC and Stanford in 2017 and beyond remains Petersen’s biggest question to answer.
The Huskies’ fate in 2017 will likely hinge on the health of Browning’s shoulder following surgery in mid-January. Browning was terrific overall as a sophomore but struggled in games against Colorado and Alabama after injuring his throwing shoulder in a Nov. 19 win over Arizona State.
Washington needs Browning to play at an elite level next season to have a chance at the playoff, particularly if it meets Sam Darnold and the Trojans in a potential Pac-12 Championship Game. Things could get even dicier if Browning leaves following the season, as its going to be hard to find another quarterback of his caliber no matter how good the coaching staff is at recruiting and development.
Petersen became a star by finding undervalued recruits and getting the most out of them, so Washington doesn’t need to be consistently pulling in top classes to be successful. Still, the Huskies just had their best class of the Petersen era at No. 22 in the 247Sports composite rankings, which ranks well behind USC while also trailing Stanford, Oregon, and UCLA while offering little in the way of star power.
There were a few major red flags late in the recruiting process for Washington, as Stanford was able to land five-star offensive lineman Foster Sarell out of the Seattle area, along with USC flipping longtime commit Marlon Tuipulotu. With little margin for error between the nation’s elite teams, recruiting developments like that could make an important difference down the line.
The news isn’t all bad, however, as local five-star quarterback Jacob Sirmon appears to be solid in his commitment to Washington. Still, this recruiting cycle showed nothing is certain until National Signing Day, and Petersen cannot afford to have Sirmon flip to another team.
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Washington certainly isn’t going to fall off much and will likely be consistently lurking around the top 10 under Petersen, putting it squarely in the mix for more playoff appearances or even a national championship. Even so, the 2016 team might end up being Petersen’s best team in terms of pure talent, and the path to a Pac-12 dynasty may be more difficult than many around college football believe.