DraftKings NBA Picks for March 7
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for March 7
We only have three games in the main DraftKings tournament tonight after a busy Monday night. That doesn’t mean that this slate is devoid of talent. Far from it. We still have some tough decisions to make, namely at point guard. What do the stats say?
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The money line was at 265.25 last night, which is surprising considering all of the Timberwolves and Trailblazers that had great matchups only to wind up with zeroes. One of my lineups made it well over that mark at 292.25. The other had Ricky Rubio.
The winning lineup was all the way up at 355.25. He was propelled by Wilson Chandler‘s monster game, and the overtime period between the Spurs and Rockets. The winner even survived a disappointing 18.75 from Richaun Holmes to take down the big prize!
The postponement of the Timberwolves-Blazers game came as a shock to most of us, and far too late to switch out players thanks to DraftKings’ new asinine policy in place for the NBA season. They have taken it one step farther with an early lock tournament tonight. What that essentially means is that the tournament lineups lock three hours prior to tipoff. If you play in that tournament, you have to make damn sure your players will play. I just can’t see that catching on. I would say that DraftKings has already lost users because of the whole lineup locking at once. If not, they will after last night!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($13,400): Well, the Blazers should be well rested for this one, but that wont help them all that much. They are still the worst defensive team in the league against point guards according to the stats. So you would expect that Westbrook has dominated them like most of the rest of the league, right? Not so much. He did have 66 DraftKings points against them last week, but his season average in three games is just 53 DraftKings points per game. That’s pretty good on a short slate, but you still have to pay that hefty price tag. The chances of him getting you 5x value are slim, but the chances of him being the highest scoring player of the night are very good even if he doesn’t make value.
John Wall ($11,000): Wall may have something to say about Westbrook being the highest scorer of the night. Wall put up 60.5 DraftKings points on the Suns in the first meeting. He is not a consistent 50+ DraftKings points scorer, but Wall’s ceiling is very high against a defense like this. He is an elite play so long as you use him in the right matchup. This is definitely the right matchup!
Honorable Mention:
Damian Lillard ($8,800): I can guarantee you that a handful of players are going to try to get the top three in their lineups tonight. Lillard has averaged 43.9 DraftKings points per game against Oklahoma City this year. That leaves him exactly at 5x value. Fading Westbrook is always a risk, but the stats of Lillard and Wall make it an acceptable contrarian play tonight.
Eric Bledsoe ($8,200): Bledsoe picked up 56.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Wall and the Wizards, and he comes at a bargain price compared to the rest of the point guards. His inconsistency will keep a lot of people away from him, but he is capable of big games. The fact that he has already done it once against the Wizards this year makes me want to take this chance.
Dark Horse:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,000): It’s going to be a tough sell to use Russell against statistically the best point guard defense in the league. They even held Westbrook under 5x value on Sunday! Russell has 60.25 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas, which is a solid total, but still brings him in under 5x value. He has a high ceiling still, but with so many other elite options at point guard, it’s hard to justify using him unless you are looking for separation.
My picks: Bledsoe(PG); Wall(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($7,800): Beal torched the Suns in the first meeting as well with 50.5 DraftKings points in that game. He has also been on fire lately, averaging 41.9 DraftKings points per game since the break. Starting the entire Washington backcourt could be a good plan of action here. It was in the first meeting.
Seth Curry ($6,600): The dynamic Curry has quashed Yogi-mania in Big D. Yogi Ferrell is solid, but he rarely reaches value because this has quickly become Curry’s team. He has not been under 25 DraftKings points in February, and he has averaged 26.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Lakers in 27 minutes per game. He plays about 35 minutes per game now. Curry should have little trouble reaching value tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Devin Booker ($6,300): Booker picked up 37.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Wizards. It could be tough to rely on him to hit six triples again, but we know he has the ability. Considering that C.J. McCollum has been held under value in all three games against the Thunder, betting on a high upside guy like Booker is a good alternative.
Victor Oladipo ($5,700): Oladipo had a good practice yesterday, and was feeling no ill effects in his balky back afterwards. The Thunder are leaning towards him playing tonight, but official word wont come until closer to tip. You are playing with fire if you use him in the early lock. If he ends up playing, I want him in my lineup. Oladipo racked up 51.5 DraftKings points in the first game against Portland.
Dark Horses:
Jordan Clarkson ($5,200): Clarkson has averaged 21.7 DraftKings points per game in three tilts against Dallas, but those games were with Lou Williams on the team. Clarkson’s numbers have been up about five DraftKings points per game with LouWill in Houston, so Clarkson should be right around 5x value again.
Nick Young ($4,000): The Lakers still prefer Clarkson coming off the bench, so Young continues to start. He is far from consistent, but as he showed on Sunday, he can still put up good numbers when he’s on. Young has 63 DraftKings points in three games against Dallas this year, which puts him a shade above 5x value.
My pick: Beal(SG), Curry(G); Curry(SG), Oladipo(G), Young(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
T.J. Warren ($5,900): Warren has been between 25 and 32 DraftKings points in every game since the trade of P.J. Tucker. He doesn’t seem to have a lot of upside, but he is a solid producer and a good cash game anchor. If you are just looking to cash in a GPP tournament, Warren is a good play there as well. Especially when you consider the struggles of Otto Porter lately and the struggles of Barnes against the Lakers.
Maurice Harkless ($5,300): Harkless picked up 23.75 DraftKings points on Oklahoma City last week, which is exactly what his three game average against the Thunder is this year. Again, that leaves him under 5x value, but Harkless has good upside, and is really playing well in place of Evan Turner.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,400): Barnes has been over 25 DraftKings points in every game since the All Star Break, but that floor is still down at 4x value. He has 87 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers this year, which is also a little under value. There are no sure things at the position tonight, so just take what you can afford and hope for the best.
Wesley Matthews ($5,100): The return of Matthews has diminished the value of Barnes. Matthews is an accomplished scorer, but he does a little bit of everything. He has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Thunder this year. He could be the safest bet to hit 5x value.
Dark Horses:
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,900): His production has fluctuated a lot with Washington because his only role now is as a scorer on the second unit. He has mostly thrived in that situation. Tonight will tell us a lot about the future of Bogdanovic in Washington. As a member of the Nets, he picked up just 15.75 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. He only took six shots in that game. Now that he is relied upon as a scorer on the second team, he could have a much better game against Phoenix this time around.
Brandon Ingram ($4,800): If you use Ingram, you are playing on potential only and trying to take down a GPP tournament. Ingram has been awful against Dallas this year. As is really awful. He has just 35.5 DraftKings points in 93 minutes! He has played much better and more consistently since the Lakers committed to him as a starter for the rest of the year, but there is still a significant amount of risk involved here.
My Pick: Harkless(SF); Matthews(SF), Harkless(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Markieff Morris ($6,500): Morris struggled in the first game against Washington, but that may as well have been last year. Morris’s role has evolved a lot since then. He has become more of a focal point in the offense, and has crashed the glass more from the power forward position. Morris has 5x value in six of the last ten games. He has a good chance of reaching that tonight.
Julius Randle ($6,100): Randle has a ton of upside, but that doesn’t always mean a good fantasy night. He has 78 DraftKings points in three games against Dallas so far this year. That would keep him just under 5x value. However, he does have more upside than Morris even though Morris is the more consistent option.
Honorable Mention:
Dirk Nowitzki ($5,800): Dirk only played 20 minutes against the Lakers in his only game against them this year. He still managed 24.75 DraftKings points in that one. Even at this stage of his career, Nowitzki is a consistent, reliable scorer. He has at least 5x value in four of the six games since the break, and hasn’t been under 22 DraftKings points. He has a solid floor and is a consistent producer. You can do much worse.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,400): Aminu has 54.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this season. That puts him comfortably over 5x value. If you toss out his terrible game against the monstrous Detroit front, Aminu has six straight games of more than 5x value. So long as you don’t play Aminu against huge teams, he will get you plenty of value.
Dark Horses:
Marquese Chriss ($4,700): Chriss has the ability to produce far above his price range, but the fact that he can’t do it with any consistency keeps his price low. You can’t even rely on the matchup because Chriss has had big games against good teams, and struggled where the matchup is right. Such is the perils of playing a rookie, but he is worth a flier on a three game slate.
Taj Gibson ($3,900): Gibson had his best game as a member of the Thunder against Portland last week, putting up 33 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. He has 19.5 DraftKings points in 37 minutes since. He matches up well against Portland, so it would stand to reason that the Thunder would give him good run here as well. However, I don’t know if I trust it if he doesn’t start.
My pick: Nowitzki(PF), Aminu(F), Gibson(UTIL); Aminu(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800): Nurkic had a much better matchup last night, but we simply can’t ignore what he has done in Portland. He torched the Thunder for 55.5 DraftKings points last week, and has not been under 32 DraftKings points except for the game where he got in foul trouble north of the border. Nurkic is still very underpriced. Play him while you can still get 6x value out of him with consistency!
Alan Williams ($6,700): The center of the future for the Suns no longer seems to be Alex Len. It is Williams, who burst out of nowhere after the benching of Tyson Chandler. Williams has more than 36 DraftKings points in every start with the exception of a game against Memphis. He has a nice matchup with Washington tonight. He is in line for another big game, it seems.
Honorable Mention:
Enes Kanter ($5,700): Kanter picked up 33 DraftKings points against Portland last week, but that number could dip if Oladipo plays. For whatever reason, Kanter’s usage rate goes way down with Oladipo on the floor. He could still hit 5x value, but it becomes more risky if Oladipo plays.
Nerlens Noel ($5,600): The Mavs moved Noel to the bench with Wesley Matthews back on Sunday. If that trend continues, he loses a lot of value. Noel went nuts on a stout Grizzlies team on Friday, but with Matthews back, Noel played just 16 minutes. I love the matchup with the Lakers, but if Dallas doesn’t start him, I’m looking elsewhere despite the great matchup.
Dark Horse:
Timofey Mozgov ($3,000): It looks as though Ivica Zubac is out again tonight. With Zubac sidelined on Sunday, Mozgov hit 6x value. He is a forgotten part of the Lakers team for the most part, and he has a tough matchup against Dallas, but there could be value here if you are shooting for low ownership.
My pick: Nurkic(C); Williams(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!