FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 7
Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s three game slate which kicks off at 8:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday Night’s scores fell just short of season averages as the winning GPP score on FanDuel landed at 374.8 FanDuel points. Over the first 107 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.5 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 107 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.5 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Monday Night’s FanDuel NBA slate was a wild one and honestly, we could almost feel the pre-lock craziness coming. Two hours prior to lock on a 12 game slate and we essentially had no news other than Nikola Jokic being sent home from practice with an illness. This news led me to pivot away from Jokic towards the Golden State Big Three and I felt like everything else in Picks and Pivots could stay the same however then the news started to “trickle” out about the Portland/Minnesota game having a wet court and I had DFS flashbacks to the Kings and Sixers game earlier this season that burned me.
I very quickly pivoted away from Damian Lillard and moved towards Kyrie Irving/Dion Waiters which when paired with Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, ultimately paid off as Picks and Pivots put up 315.8 FanDuel points in their top lineup which cashed across the board.
Tonight we only have a three game slate but we still have a variety of interesting roster questions to work through so let’s get to it!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($13,100) Another Picks and Pivots column and another slate where I start with Russell Westbrook. I have received comments on social media(PS. I love the feedback) that I shouldn’t always list him – everyone already knows he’s the best player in DFS. My rationale when writing these Picks and Pivots articles is not to simply list off the best plays but rather explain them in the context of my roster construction so rather than tell you Westbrook is great at basketball, let me explain to you why I am going to start my roster build with him today.
One of the things I highly recommend for DFS players is to soak up as much information as you can (and read us at Fantasy CPR each day) and I make a point each day to listen to the great stuff at RotoGrinders. During one of their recent podcasts, they threw out a nugget that absolutely floored me – on slates that Westbrook has played this season, he is in the winning tournament lineup 56% of the time! Think about that – you have a better than 50/50 shot of winning a GPP by rostering him!
Tonight’s slate also pushes me towards Westbrook as a result of the other options we have available on this three game slate. One game, Dallas/Lakers is one I will likely avoid as much as possible as I do not want to target the Lakers against a slow-paced Dallas team and with a double-digit spread, this is a spot I see no reason to aggressively target. So that leaves us with OKC/Portland and Washington/Phoenix.
Looking over these rosters, the one common theme is that their best fantasy options reside in the back-court so the PG/SG roster build is going to be the most challenging today. The reason I am locking in Westbrook is that simply, if you are not rostering him – who else on the Thunder are you going out of your way to grab? The other stars on this slate have 1B options to their 1A – Westbrook will likely still be without Victor Oladipo tonight (or he may return in a limited capacity) so it’s either roster Westbrook or avoid OKC. On a night where the Thunder have the highest team total on the slate and are projected to score nearly nine points more than their season average, I am locking in Westbrook and hoping this is a night where I land in the 56%!
Eric Bledose ($8,500) The Phoenix/Wizards game is expected to be a track meet tonight with the highest combined team total on the slate so the key is which PG are you going to take from this game. Bledsoe sits at a price point that makes him easy to roster on this slate and was able to drop 53 FanDuel points against this same Wizards team when they faced off earlier this season.
Realistically, any of John Wall, Damian Lillard or Bledsoe could hit the 50 mark tonight but the fact that Bledsoe is $1,700 cheaper than Wall and $1,100 cheaper than Lillard makes this an easy choice on a night where we will not have enough value and need to make every dollar count!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Bradley Beal ($8,000) and C.J. McCollum ($7,200) Going back to our roster build, I think it is important we get exposure to all four back-courts in the two targeted games and one of the ways we can do this is pairing Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum together.
On a three game slate like tonight, I am avoiding cash games entirely and going all in on GPP play/Multipliers so we need to think a little bit about game theory here. If we are not going to roster John Wall or Damian Lillard, the pivot play is to roster the 1B Shooting Guard options on each team and hope the game flow works more in their favor which will give us an edge over those that rostered Wall/Lillard.
The last time the Wizards/Suns matched up, Beal went off for 42 real life points and 47.3 FanDuel points and comes into this game with 41+ FanDuel points in each of his last two contests! The Suns are ranked 27th in DvP against opposing SG’s so this is a spot where we can get elite Wizards exposure at a fraction of the cost of John Wall!
On the Portland side, McCollum will have the luxury of facing a hobbled Victor Oladipo or Alex Abrines, who has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any SG on this slate. McCollum has been held to under 30 FanDuel points in both earlier match-ups against the Thunder so the game log watchers may look to fade him in this spot but I am going to play the strategy angle here and get my Portland exposure to McCollum and hope Lillard is held closer to the 32 FanDuel points he put up in his first game against OKC this year!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Doug McDermott ($3,500) and Brandon Ingram ($3,700) Small forward is a great spot to save salary tonight and in true GPP form, I am going to roll the dice with two high upside punt plays that are locked into major minutes.
Dougie Buckets is playing massive minutes for the Thunder with Victor Oladipo off the court, having played 35 minutes or more in three straight contests. It is rare to get that kind of run from a minimum priced player on FanDuel and McDermott actually started the second half for the Thunder in their last game.
Ingram is the lone player from the Dallas/Lakers game I am looking to target and frankly it is a product of his price point and guaranteed role that make him intriguing on a three game slate. Ingram has played 35+ minutes in four of his last five games and has exceeded 6x value in two of his last four games which makes him a fantastic GPP punt play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Enes Kanter ($5,800) At a weak PF spot on this slate, I have no issue paying “up” for Kanter who has 30+ FanDuel points in four of his last five games including an 18 point, 10 rebound performance against the same Portland team he is playing tonight.
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With Victor Oladipo out, Kanter is pushing for 30% usage and averaging over a fantasy point per minute and with Oladipo still questionable to play, I have no issue firing up Kanter who has two double-doubles in his last three games.
Marquese Chriss ($4,500) Chriss is coming off one of his best games of the season where he racked up 10 points, 6 boards, 5 blocks and over 28.2 FanDuel points which would exceed 6x value at this price point. The best place to attack Washington all season has been at the PF position as they rank 28th in DvP to opposing Power Forwards. On a slate like this, Chriss not only gives you the much-needed salary relief, but has 6x upside which we will need to take down a big GPP!
Alan Williams ($5,500) To me Center comes down to Williams or Jusuf Nurkic, and I will opt to take the salary savings and drop down to Williams who has become a DFS stud over the last week! Williams has now posted three straight double-doubles and has seen over 30 minutes of run in each of his last two games while Tyson Chandler and Alex Len have taken a clear back seat to the Big Sauce.
At this price point, Williams only needs 33 FanDuel points to hit 6x value, and considering this is a number he has hit in four of his last five games, I am all in on the impressive Suns big man tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR all day on Twitter for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!