DraftKings NBA Picks for March 8
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for March 8
We are back up to 11 games for the main tournament tonight. We have plenty of stars in action. Which ones are worth using? Where are the bargains at? Let’s crunch some stats and try to win some cash!
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The money line was still at 264.75 last night, which is surprising on a three game slate. Simply put: if you didn’t have Russell Westbrook, it was hard to place. He didn’t even have a double-double, but he did pour in a career best 58 points.
The winning lineup did what most of us tried to do and failed. He managed to build a winning lineup without Westbrook. Ignoring the strength of the Dallas frontcourt and using Julius Randle was a game changer. Bojan Bogdanovic and Ian Mahinmi scored a combined 85 DraftKings points at a very low price. Hitting on cheap value is the way to win!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800): None of the ones with higher salaries have a 5x value against tonight’s opponents. James Harden is pretty close against Utah, but I still hate playing guards against the Jazz. John Wall is on the second night of a back to back, so he may see more minutes on the bench than usual. Curry’s usage is up with Kevin Durant out, but I still don’t trust him at that price. Giannis has 106.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks. He looks like a more sure thing.
Kemba Walker ($8,000): Yes, the Heat are solid at the point, but Walker has been on a tear lately. He has averaged 46.9 DraftKings points per game over his last five contests. So long as Walker continues to carve up defenses, he is worth playing. Even in a matchup like this. There are a lot of expensive options at the point tonight, and very few of them have good histories against tonight’s opponents. Walker has 76.5 DraftKings points in two games against Miami. I would venture to say he brings his streak of 40+ DraftKings points games to six.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($6,800): Holiday posted 45 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Raptors. He has cooled down some, but Holiday has still taken advantage of weaker backcourts. He was over 50 DraftKings points against the Lakers and Kings, and in the 40’s against the Spurs. This is a good matchup for Holiday. He should end up with at least 6x value tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($6,700): Schroder is a nice play with the matchup is right. Considering he put up 41.25 DraftKings points on Atlanta the first time around, I would say this qualifies. Are you concerned about a blowout? Well, Schroder did that much damage in just 29 minutes! He presents a low risk option that has the potential for 7x value or higher if he plays enough. Even if he doesn’t, 6x value is in play.
Dark Horses:
Tyler Johnson ($5,600): Johnson missed Monday’s game with a sore shoulder, and is still listed as questionable for tonight. It is always possible that the Heat hold him out, but if he is playing with on restrictions, I want him in my lineup. Johnson has 60.75 DraftKings points in two games against Charlotte this year, and has at least 5x value in nine of his last ten games. If he is limited at all though, He is likely too much of a risk to roster.
Cory Joseph ($5,300): Joseph is a backup for a reason, so don’t expect big numbers from him. Especially with DeRozan around. However, in the right matchup, he still has plenty of upside. The Pelicans are the sixth worst team in the league against point guards, so there is a plenty of reason for optimism here.
Ty Lawson ($4,900): Lawson is the most consistent contributor in a very crowded backcourt right now. He has four straight games of at least 6x value. As long as he is playing like this, Lawson will have plenty of minutes allotted to him. It seems as though Ish Smith stealing his minutes has finally lit a fire under Reggie Jackson, but they are cannibalizing each other’s value right now. Lawson is much more reliable at this point.
My picks: Holiday(PG), Walker(G); Schroder(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,700): DeRozan now carries a substantial risk when he goes cold like he did on Monday. He will be nowhere near where you need him for this price. His usage rate remains astronomical with Kyle Lowry out, but now that he has help in the frontcourt, he isn’t as likely to drop 50 as he was when Lowry first went out. The Pelicans are fifth in the league against shooting guards, but the position was depleted in the Cousins deal. That is mostly smoke and mirrors now. DeRozan has the potential for a very good night.
Bradley Beal ($7,800): Beal opened last night scorching hot, but cooled off a lot after the first quarter. Part of that was because he was rested for so long. he could be prone to longer moments of rest tonight as well, especially if the game isn’t close. Beal picked up 38.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Denver. He also is averaging 38.9 DraftKings points over the last ten games. Beal remains a strong play once again, and one of the more reliable ones around.
Honorable Mention:
Dion Waiters ($6,300): Waiters appears to be fine after a cold stretch at the beginning of this month. He picked up 43.5 DraftKings points in his former city on Monday. He had just 46.75 combined over the previous three games. Waiters picked up 28.25 DraftKings points in the first tilt with Charlotte. 5x value looks likely, and there is potential for a lot more.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700): It appears as though the Hawks have finally conceded that Hardaway needs to be starting. He has responded with 112.5 DraftKings points in his three game stint as a starter this time around. Hardaway picked up 24 DraftKings points in 22 minutes in the first game against the Nets. If he receives in the mid-30’s once again, Hardaway should clear 6x value.
Avery Bradley ($5,100): Bradley logged 26 minutes on Monday, his most since he missed 18 games nursing a sore Achilles. The Celtics are still being cautious with him, but considering he put up 39.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes on the Warriors the first time around, he should be able to hit 5x value in his allotment of minutes. There isn’t the usual upside with Bradley while he is on a minutes limit, but he is more reliable than most value plays at this level.
Dark Horses:
Rodney Hood ($4,700): Hood struggled against the Pelicans, but they are one of the better teams in the league against shooting guards. He has 67 DraftKings points in two games against the Rockets so far this year. There is potential for well over 6x value at this price. Hood has shown no ill effects from the sore knee that cost him two games at the beginning of the month. He looks like a great value play tonight.
Lou Williams ($4,600): Williams is in a nice spot for GPP’s tonight. First off, he has been dreadful from the field over the last three games (6-27, 2-15 from three point range). That has caused him to be way under value, and has caused a free-fall in his price. Next, he is playing the Jazz, who are very tough on guards. So why do I recommend him? In four games against Utah this year, Williams has averaged 35.8 DraftKings points per game. That is an average of over 8x value!
Jaylen Brown ($4,200): As long as Avery Bradley is still on a minutes limit, Brown should continue to see solid minutes off the bench. He has at least 5x value in five of the last six games. He doesn’t have nearly the upside that he had when Bradley was out, but if you need to save cash to pay up for a star or two, Brown should still get you at least 5x value.
C.J. Miles ($4,000): Miles has been seeing a good run lately. He has averaged 26.8 DraftKings over the last three games while seeing 31 minutes per game. So long as Miles keeps shooting the way he is, he should keep starting at shooting guard for the Pacers.
My pick: Hardaway(SG), Hood(UTIL); Waiters(SG), Brown(G), Waiters(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kawhi Leonard ($10,000): Leonard’s price is up $1,200 in just two games because he put up 131 DraftKings points in those two games. In fact, Leonard has been above 54 DraftKings points in four straight games! The Kings are terrible against small forwards this season. Expect another huge game for Kawhi. He is as hot as anyone right now, and is the safest play of those that top the $10,000 threshold tonight.
Jimmy Butler ($9,200): Dwyane Wade was just downgraded to doubtful last evening, so it appears that the Bulls will need to lean on Butler again. He picked up 46.25 DraftKings points with Wade out against a good Detroit team. Orlando has allowed 87.25 DraftKings points to Butler in two games this season. He has the potential to top 50 DraftKings points tonight. He is a nice contrarian play if you decide to fade Kawhi.
Paul George ($8,100): George has put up 106.25 DraftKings points over his last two games. He has also fared well against the Pistons this year, averaging 41.7 DraftKings points per game against them in three games. George is playing as well as he has all year right now. He should be able to reach 5x value, and possibly more, tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Carmelo Anthony ($7,600): Lost in all the Melo-hatred going around is that he is still a pretty good player when he wants to be. Take a look at his season stats against the Bucks. He has 56 points, 17 rebounds, 17 assists, and three steals in just two games. That is good enough for 113.75 DraftKings points. Melo could be the best bargain of the night if he sticks it to the Bucks again.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,500): Tough games against Utah and San Antonio helped temper Wiggins’ price. It was getting out of control! Tonight he gets a bit of a reprieve against a Clippers team that he has 72 DraftKings points against in two games this season. Both of those games were with Zach LaVine on the court, so expect Wiggins to get back to picking up slack. He was a dreadful 6-24 from the floor against the Spurs. If he gets that many shots against the Clippers, 6x value could be his floor.
Nicolas Batum ($7,100): The Heat are pretty tough on the perimeter, but Batum has still managed 81.25 DraftKings points against them in two games. After struggling against the Lakers and Suns, Batum has been back on track against Denver and Indiana. He is solid value, but lacks the upside of others at the position tonight, but Batum should have a low ownership rate.
Khris Middleton ($6,600): Using Middleton at this price comes with considerable risk. He obviously had the ability to turn this price into a value, but at the same time, he is still limited to the low 30’s in minutes. Middleton could have a big game against the defense optional Knicks. Another thing to take into consideration: When Anthony shredded the Bucks twice earlier in the year, Middleton was in street clothes. Food for thought.
Dark Horses:
Terrence Ross ($5,300): The minutes are there, but the consistency is not. Ross is playing more than he did in Toronto, and he is getting enough shots, but he doesn’t always make them. The good part is that Ross has stepped up his production in the defensive categories as a starter. That limits the blow when he goes cold, but it doesn’t alleviate all of the risk. That said, the only team that has kept Ross in check is the Knicks. With Butler likely moving to SG, I like Ross’s chances.
Josh Richardson ($4,200): Richardson put on a show against Charlotte earlier this year with 33 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. The bad news is that Richardson is still working his way back from an ankle sprain. He played 32 minutes on Monday, but that was with Tyler Johnson and James Johnson out. With at least one of them expected to be back, the Heat will have little reason to run Richardson ragged. Still, with only 25.2 DraftKings points needed for 6x value, He is a low risk – good reward type option.
Norman Powell ($3,700): Powell’s minutes are steadily increasing with Terrence Ross gone. With the increased minutes comes more potential for him to flash the promise that he did when DeRozan was out. Powell is still a bit of a risk due to sporadic production, but he has a very high ceiling at this price.
My Pick: Anthony(SF), Powell(F); Leonard(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,200): If anything, the presence of Cousins has made Davis even more dangerous up front. He doesn’t have the potential to throw up 70 DraftKings points anymore, but he has hit 60 twice since the acquisition of Cousins, and only Utah has held him under 5x value since their first game together. That can be excused. Davis put up 53.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Toronto this year. There is little reason to believe that he can’t do it again.
Draymond Green ($8,200): Green is a sure double digit point scorer with Durant out, but he has only put up two double-doubles since Durant’s injury. He still produces across the board, but his value wont truly be maximized until he starts putting up double digits in defensive categories as well. Considering Green had a triple-double earlier this year and points were not involved, we all know that he is capable of it.
Paul Millsap ($7,700): Millsap has averaged 41.9 DraftKings points over the last five games. Now he gets a Brooklyn team that is nothing short of dreadful up front. Millsap’s 37.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting wont turn any heads but how about the fact that he only played 28 minutes? Sure, there is a chance that this game is another blowout, but the chances of Millsap hitting 5x value are still very good.
Honorable Mention:
Wilson Chandler ($6,800): Be sure to check on the status of Kenneth Faried before deploying Chandler again. The word so far is that Faried is out. Chandler decimated the Kings on Monday with 64.5 DraftKings points. Now, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but the Wizards have been knocked around up front several times recently. Even rookie Alan Williams put up a double double on them last night. Chandler could be in for another nice game.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,500): After seeing what Chandler just did to the Kings, I have high hopes for Aldridge. LMA doesn’t have the outside shooting chops that Chandler does, but I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Aldridge topped 40 DraftKings points for the third time in four games.
Aaron Gordon ($6,000): The Magic exported Serge Ibaka to Canada so they could move Gordon back to his natural position. He has responded with 35.1 DraftKings points per game in March. The Bulls are a little smaller up front since they moved Taj Gibson. That should only help Gordon tonight.
Dark Horses:
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,900): The Kings are in flux up front since the Cousins trade. Trying to decipher who will produce what is a bit like a game of roulette. Cauley-Stein has the most upside of the Kings’ frontcourt options. Sacramento has been deploying him against larger teams up front. The Spurs would qualify as such. The bad thing here is that with every position locking with the 7pm Eastern tips, we may not know if WCS is starting by then since this game tips 90 minutes later. Are you willing to take the risk?
Jon Leuer ($4,600): Leuer has not been a model of consistency, but the Pacers continue to be among the weakest teams defending power forwards. Leuer has 47.75 DraftKings points in two games against Indiana. That puts him a shade over 5x value, but he lacks the upside to help you take down a GPP tournament.
Amir Johnson ($4,200): With the struggles of Kelly Olynyk rearing their head again, Johnson has taken full advantage. He has averaged 30 DraftKings points per game over the last three games. Some of that has to do with the absence of Al Horford for two of those games. Horford is still listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he seems to think he is going to play. If he does, Johnson becomes a more risky option.
My pick: Chandler(PF); Millsap(PF), Cauley-Stein(F)
Center
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600): The Spurs were able to stop Wiggins’ streak of consecutive 20 point games, but not Towns’s. His streak is now the longest in the league at 17 games. The Clippers wont be able to hold him under that either. Towns has 110.5 DraftKings points in just two games against the Clippers this season and has scored 61 points in those two games. Look for Towns to hit 5x value once again.
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DeMarcus Cousins ($9,900): Just like Davis, Cousins was kept under wraps by the Jazz as well. Toronto is rather small up front. You remember what these two behemoths did to the Lakers, right? Even with these astronomical prices, Cousins and Davis routinely hit 5x value or more while sharing the court. It should happen tonight as well.
Honorable Mention:
Hassan Whiteside ($7,700): Whiteside had two pedestrian games against Charlotte earlier this season, but the Hornets frontcourt looks much different now than it did then. Frank Kaminsky is still hurt. Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert are gone. Now it is on the shoulders of Marvin Willams and Cody Zeller to defend him. Good luck with that.
Rudy Gobert ($7,600): Gobert picked up 83.5 DraftKings points in two games against Houston this year. He has dominated both the Kings and Pelicans over the last two games. Statistically, he should be able to do the same thing to the Rockets tonight. Of course, prior to those last two games, he struggled against the Nets and Timberwolves. Those games should have been big ones for Gobert as well.
Dwight Howard ($7,400): Howard put up 36.5 DraftKings points on the Nets in the first meeting this year in just 27 minutes. Brooklyn was eaten alive by both Millsap and Howard. The likelihood of another blowout caps the upside of the Atlanta frontcourt, but 6x value is still within reach. If for some reason this game stays closer, Howard and Millsap could have huge games.
Dark Horse:
DeAndre Jordan ($6,700): Jordan has mauled the Timberwolves up front this season. In two games, he has 47 points and 32 rebounds, good for a total of 105.5 DraftKings points. He has even gone 15-28 from the free throw line, nearly 10% better than his season average! Look for another big game from Jordan here.
Willy Hernangomez ($5,500): With Joakim Noah still out, the position is wide open for Hernangomez. The Bucks have had trouble with centers lately. It could have something to do with the musical chairs at the position. At any rate, Hernangomez has the potential to put up a pretty big game for the price.
Zaza Pachulia ($3,900): Pachulia racked up 28.25 DraftKings points against Boston in just 21 minutes earlier this season. Pachulia does the most with the little minutes that he does get. That makes him a solid value play, but little else. He is never going to be an important part of the offense, which lowers his ceiling quite a bit.
Ian Mahinmi ($3,000): Mahinmi had a huge game against the Suns last night. The Warriors are built much like the Nuggets are, so the athletic Mahinmi could see a lot of run again tonight. Marcin Gortat is still the starter, but with the huge game that Mahinmi had last night, this could be a step towards at least a time share.
My pick: Jordan(C); Hernangomez(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!