DraftKings Valspar Championship Preview
After a brief stint south of the board, the tour will return back to sunny Palm Harbor, Florida, for the DraftKings Valspar Championship. Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is the annual host, and players will be playing on the Copperhead course. Copperhead plays at 7,340 yards and a par 71, and is one of the toughest courses on the tour. The course actually ends up playing quite longer than you would suspect, by removing the ability to hit the driver on many holes. Overall, accurate ball strikers should be favored over bombers, but long iron game will be critical to success this week. I’ll be targeting the normal statistical measures, but digging heavily into course history, approach game, birdie scoring, and par 3 scoring.
After a no-cut event last week, we’ll be back to normal with a cut after completing Friday’s round. With many of the elite golfers missing from the field this week, lineup construction could feature more balanced lineups. There are also quite a few players at the bottom of the barrel who truly shouldn’t be considered on DraftKings. That being said, while the chalk is seemingly ruling the PGA tour this year, it’s now more important than ever to pivot off of the chalk.
DraftKings Valspar Championship: Top Tier: $11,900 – $8,000
Justin Thomas – $11900
With a talent depleted field, Justin Thomas and Henrik Stenson remain the only players priced above $11,000 this week. Stenson stands out as the clear value play from this tier of elite golfers. Vegas has given Stenson a 9.1% chance to win, whereas they’ve given Thomas an 8.3% chance. Both golfers have impressive course history, but Stenson has a slight edge. Thomas has an 18th and 10th place finish here, and Stenson has an 11th and a 4th place finish.
Stenson is very viable in cash games, but I’m projecting him to be one of the highest golfers in tournaments, and will therefore be pivoting onto Justin Thomas. We saw last week, the highest priced golfer, DJ, was criminally underowned. Given Thomas’ price, and Stenson being the obvious value, I think being overweight on Thomas makes sense.
Patrick Reed – $9700
Patrick Reed is one of my favorite tournament plays this week. Reed has struggled of late, but with projected ownership possibly reaching below 10%, it’s worth taking a shot on a golfer of his caliber. I mentioned in my last article how I plan on being much more game theory oriented in tournaments, and I think Patrick Reed fits this strategy perfectly. Reed has shown flashes of success at his course in the past, with a 7th place finish 16′ and a 2nd place finish in 15′ (lost in a playoff to Jordan Spieth). Reed has the third highest course and field adjusted birdie score, in the field, of 15.3 birdies per tournament.
Others to have exposure to:
Cash: Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Charles Howell III, Bill Haas, Gary Woodland
GPP: Daniel Berger, Ryan Moore, Charl Schwartzel, Graham DeLaet
DraftKings Valspar Championship: Mid Tier: $8,000 – $7,000
Byeong-Hun An – $7400
Byeong-Hun An is one of the young prospects to keep an eye on this week, and in the future. An hasn’t missed a cut this year, and is underpriced, given the strength of the field and his Vegas odds. An has a Vegas implied chance of winning at 2%, which stands out at this price point. An doesn’t have PGA course history here to refer back to, but his length and birdie making ability should be beneficial here. An ranks as one of the highest in this field for course and field adjusted birdies per tournament, at 15.1.
Wesley Bryan – $7500
Wesley Bryan will be on of the chalkier options this week, but should be considered in cash games. After a rough start to the year, Bryan has fallen into a great rhythm, with a 4th place finish at the Honda Classic and a 4th place finish at the Genesis Open. Bryan has a favorable Vegas projection at 2.2%, indicating that he may be overowned in tournaments, I’ll be fading Bryan in tournaments, but targeting him in my cash games.
Jason Dufner $7900/Billy Horschel $7900
Jason Dufner is arguably my favorite play on the slate, but with that being said, I have him projected as one of the highest owned players in tournaments. Dufner has tremendous course history, making the cut in every showing, dating back to 2010. Included during this stretch, were no finishes worse than 28th. Billy Horschel will garner some ownership, but I think he provides an interesting pivot off of Dufner. Horschel doesn’t have the course history that Dufner has, but has the same Vegas projection and scores fairly similar in GIR, DD, ADJ.RD., and Scrambling. I’ll be targeting Dufner in cash, and have more exposure to Horschel in tournaments.
Others to have exposure to:
Cash: Jim Furyk
GPP: Luke Donald, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Russell Knox, Lee McCoy, J.J. Spaun. Jim Furyk, Nick Watney, Chez Reavie
DraftKings Valspar Championship: Bottom Tier: $7,000 – $6,400
Lucas Glover -$6900
The sub $7000 range is somewhat scary this weak, but Lucas Glover’s recent form makes him a justifiable play. Glover has had mixed results at the Valspar in the past, but hasn’t missed a cut all year and is trending in the right direction, with a 21st at the Honda Classic.
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Glover struggles with the putter, but if he can get a few putts rolling, he’ll be in an advantageous situation to provide value on DraftKings. Glover has one of the best GIR % of the entire field, at 72.1%.
Adam Hadwin – $6800
Adam Hadwin should be the chalk from this bottom tier. Hadwin enters the week in tremendous recent form to start the year, including a 2nd place finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Vegas has Hadwin at a 1.1% chance to win, which is one of the best projections in this price range. Given Hadwin is one of the best putters in the field and given putting’s inherent randomness (relatively), I’ll be fading Hadwin in tournaments. I’ll be considering Hadwin in cash games, but given the putting and ownership, I’ll be looking to pivot elsewhere.
Others to have exposure to:
GPP: Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Robert Garrigus, Cameron Smith, Bud Cawley, Ian Poulter