FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 8
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s eleven game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday Night’s three game slate saw winning scores at 388.3 FanDuel points driven primarily by an 80 point Russell Westbrook evening! Over the first 108 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 108 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Tuesday Night’s Picks and Pivots lineup was built around Russell Westbrook and the man did NOT disappoint as he dropped 80 FanDuel points on Portland. On a three game slate it is important to take stands in GPP’s and our stand was to fade John Wall (57.8 FD points) and pivot to Bradley Beal (32.6) which back fired and we also completely faded the Lakers/Dallas game which ended up a shootout at 122-111 as Julius Randle and Dirk Nowitzki were the plays at PF we had no exposure to!
We get a massive Wednesday Night slate similar to what we had on Monday Night where the winning GPP score was right around 375 so with that in mind, what will it take to get there tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Jrue Holiday ($7,600) and Cory Joseph ($5,000) Tonight’s slate is very interesting as we only have a few really stand out spots to target which is odd considering the size of the slate. The two late games, Boston/Golden State and Washington/Denver are the two highest projected scoring games but the more I look at those match-ups, the more I am inclined to fade them (except in one instance but more on that later).
Washington has the fourth highest team total on the slate but I am admittedly skeptical of paying the freight here. The Wizards are going to be on the tail end of a back to back, playing three games in four nights and now have to play on the road in the thin air in Denver. This feels like a spot where the jump shooting guards for Washington struggle and if we get this right, could have a big advantage on the field. Golden State/Boston is a solid spot and I expect Stephen Curry/Isaiah Thomas to be a very popular pairing at PG, but the price points are high and they frankly haven’t been showing profit potential at those costs so again maybe a strategic fade!
The Toronto/New Orleans game is one I am very interested in as it has a 2 point Vegas spread and with the third lowest combined team total, I expect it will be over looked on this slate. The reason I like this game is that we know the usage is concentrated to a very few select players which makes targeting our players much easier than trying to figure for example, which one of the Warriors Big 3 will go off!
Holiday has scuffled initially with the addition of DeMarcus Cousins but has seemingly turned his game on in recent contests, putting up 40+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Holiday has scored 20+ points in three of his last four games and is averaging over 5 rebounds and 6 assists in that stretch. Tonight he faces off with Cory Joseph who has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any PG on this slate. At under $8k, Jrue is a great pivot play that will likely be over looked as everyone flocks to Curry/IT/Wall tonight!
On the other side of this match-up, Joseph is a guy who was the chalk of the day initially when Kyle Lowry went down with an injury but as his price rose, the shine wore off and people have moved on to newer shinier toys. Joseph however has quietly seen his price dip back down to $5k while his play has improved in recent games. Joseph has double-digit shot attempts in five of his last six games and gets to face off with a New Orleans team that is ranked 28th in DvP to opposing PG’s. At this price point, Joseph only needs 25-30 FanDuel points to pay off this salary and he has hit that mark in four of his last six games! I love this pairing at PG tonight as a sneaky under the radar stack that I expect will be largely under-owned.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($4,300) The Utah Jazz trolled us on Monday night with the post-lock news that Hood would come off the bench on the tail end of the back to back but with a day of rest, I would expect Hood to re-enter the starting lineup tonight for the Jazz as they take on the Houston Rockets.
The Jazz are a team I am looking to stack on this slate (not sure I have ever said that), as they get one of the best pace up spots against the Rockets and with George Hill/Joe Johnson questionable and Derrick Favors OUT, the Jazz are going to have a ton of usage to go around. With those three players off the court this season, Hood has the second highest usage on the team at 27.7% and is putting up 27 FD points per 36 minutes.
These two teams have faced off twice already this year with Hood putting up 27 and 33 FanDuel points in those match-ups which puts him at 6x-7x value at this price point. Keep an eye on the lineup news here as if we get confirmation Hood is back in the starting lineup, you can fire him up across the board tonight!
Jamal Crawford ($3,900) If you are a regular reader to Picks and Pivots you will notice I typically spend down at SG and tonight is no different as we have some elite value plays with 6x-7x value that allow us to spend up at other key positions!
The fact that Jamal Crawford is priced at $3,900 is insane to me based off his recent play as the guy has been on fire in recent contests. Over the last two games, Crawford has put up 30 shot attempts, scoring over 22 points per game and dropping 28.7 and 32.4 FanDuel points which puts him at 7x-8x value at this price point. I am simply taking the free square tonight with Crawford and locking in this bargain price point for a player with massive GPP upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Gordon Hayward ($7,700) As I mentioned earlier, the Jazz are going to be a team I have heavy exposure to tonight against the Rockets as they not only see a massive pace boost but will also be without 2-3 players. With Hill, Johnson, Favors off the floor this season, Hayward leads the team with a 30% usage rate and puts up a fantasy point per minute.
Hayward put up 47 FanDuel points when these teams squared off earlier this season so the upside is clearly there and at under $8k, I think Hayward has massive profit potential!
Wilson Chandler ($6,800) Although the Wizards side of this game is one I will likely be avoiding tonight, the Nuggets side is very interesting especially with Nikola Jokic questionable for tonight’s game. With Jokic off the floor, Chandler becomes the de-facto leader of the Nuggets offense and we saw the kind of output he is capable of as he dropped 57.4 FanDuel points last game against the Kings with Jokic off the floor.
The price has barely risen on Chandler and tonight he will take on a Wizards team ranked 28th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s. Chandler is seeing massive run as the Nuggets starting PF and tonight if Jokic is in fact ruled out, should see all the usage he can handle for the Nuggets for under $7k on FanDuel!
UPDATE: Jokic has been downgraded to doubtful and now Danillo Gallinari has been listed as questionable with an illness. With Jokic, Faried (who is already ruled out) and Gallinari off the floor, Chandler leads the Nuggets in usage and fantasy point per minute production and would be a lock and load play at $6.8k tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($11,200) Call this my gut play of the night, but I think in GPP’s, paying up for The Brow will be highly contrarian on this slate and any time I can get a superstar in DFS for single-digit ownership, I am going to look to take advantage. Of all the players priced above $10k, I expect most will look to roster players like Stephen Curry/John Wall or even James Harden as part of a Rockets/Jazz stack so I expect Davis to be ignored against the Raptors and he makes for a great correlation play with Jrue Holiday locked into my PG position!
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The Raptors have added some elite defensive talent up front with Serge Ibaka but the Raptors are not a team I think has the personnel to slow down the Pelicans big men tonight. The price point is the second highest of any player on the slate and the game log watchers will see a recent run of games in the 40-50 FD point range and will balk at the price which is exactly why I think we can jump on within the context of this roster build. If AD is under 10% owned and has one of his signature nights, it could take you to the top of a GPP this evening!
Aaron Gordon ($5,700) At this point I am sure most of you are sick of me talking about this guy each day but the price point barely moved on AG and all he does is plays 30 minutes a night and drops 30-35 FanDuel points each time out. At this price point, Gordon needs only 28 FD points to hit 5x value so he is a cash game lock who is routinely hitting 6x value and for as long as he is under $6k, I think we simply have to play him. Tonight, Gordon and the Magic take on a Bulls team ranked 21st in DvP to opposing PF’s and with Nikola Vucevic OUT, it would require Gordon to take on an expanded role inside for Orlando!
Rudy Gobert ($7,800) The last piece of our Jazz stack and another Utah player priced under $8k, Gobert gives us the ability to lock in a reasonably priced player with massive upside against the Rockets. Houston is likely to be without Ryan Anderson tonight so an already thin Rockets front court will be even more so tonight and Gobert should simply dominate the glass and get as many rebounds as he can handle against the fast=paced Rockets.
Gobert has double-doubles in both games against Houston this season, averaging 38 FD points per game which puts him right at 5x value with this price. Gobert comes into this game averaging 50 FD points over his last two and makes for an elite play tonight at Center!
Beast of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!