DraftKings NBA Picks for March 10
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for March 10
Roughly half of the league is in action tonight for the main DraftKings tournament. There are plenty of stars, especially at the point guard position. Where can we find bargains to pick up one or two studs? Which studs should we target? Let’s dig through some numbers!
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The money line was down a bit to 261 last night, but that can be expected in an abbreviated slate. Almost a third of the lineups in the big tournament were hornswaggled by Patty Mills and his nine DraftKings points. Kawhi Leonard was even more widely owned, and he left the game with an injury. Both of my lineups were infested with Mills, but using Nurkic vaulted one of them well into the money.
The winning lineup still had a healthy score of 365.75 DraftKings points. Jusuf Nurkic and his 81 points cashed a lot of people out. What put this lineup over the top was LeBron James and his 67, and a big night from Robert Covington. Avoiding Spurs players didn’t hurt either.
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,600): Harden racked up 77.5 DraftKings points on the Bulls in the first meeting. Since the Bulls are going younger at the point lately, opposing point guards have had much more success against the Bulls lately. If that trend holds true, we could see another 77 point game from Harden even if it doesn’t go into overtime.
John Wall ($10,000): The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, so you know Wall will be widely owned. He put up 50 DraftKings points in the first tilt with the Kings. He also has at least 50 DraftKings points in five of the last eight games. If you decide to move off of Harden, Wall is a suitable plan B. He just doesn’t have the upside of Harden.
Stephen Curry ($9,900): Up next we have another that is right at 5x value against his opponent tonight. Curry has 99.5 DraftKings points over two games against Minnesota this year. However, the Golden State offense has lost its way some with Kevin Durant out. Teams are throwing more defenders on the perimeter since they aren’t really scared of being dominated on the interior. That has resulted in some poor shooting night recently for both Curry and Thompson. The shots are still there, but Curry will be way under value if they aren’t falling.
Honorable Mention:
Kemba Walker ($8,100): Walker has struggled against Orlando in two games this year, but he is riding a streak of six straight games with 43 or more DraftKings points. That includes games against the Clippers and the Heat, both of whom are solid defending the point. It appears that streak is in serious jeopardy tonight, but I still trust Kemba more than Isaiah Thomas. His numbers slipped in the first game against Denver because he played only 32 minutes. Thomas could be in for extended rest again if the game gets out of hand.
Elfrid Payton ($7,000): Payton is doing his best Russell Westbrook impersonation, racking up back to back triple doubles! He struggled a lot in two games against Charlotte earlier this season, but the inconsistent youngster may have finally turned a corner. He could be heavily owned tonight. Do you trust his past stats, or his current run?
Dark Horses:
Cory Joseph ($5,300): Atlanta’s struggled defending the point are well known in fantasy circles. Joseph has 55.25 DraftKings points in just 49 minutes against the Hawks this year. Imagine what he can do given starter’s minutes! Joseph has only topped 30 DraftKings points once in Kyle Lowry‘s absence, so there isn’t huge upside here. But there is reason for optimism considering what he did to the Hawks as a bench player.
Lou Williams ($5,000): Williams was still cold from the floor (2-10) against Utah, but he pitched in five assists and some steals to get his value to 5x. He will pull out of this slump at some point, and if he continues to build off of what he did against Utah, he can still have a decent floor if he doesn’t. Williams has 71.5 DraftKings points in two games against Chicago this season, and is 12-26 from the field. If he finds his missing shooting stroke, Williams will be well above 6x value.
Jamal Murray ($4,000): The Nuggets have said that they want to see what Murray can do. That is bad news for Jameer Nelson, and to some degree, Emmanuel Mudiay. It could affect the fantasy prospects of all three players, but Murray is the cheapest, and is the one they want to play more. If I’m taking a cheap stab in a GPP, I’m going with Murray.
My picks: Harden(PG), Williams(UTIL); Joseph(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500): His price has finally leveled off after spiking when Lowry went down. DeRozan has 82.5 DraftKings points in two games against Atlanta with Lowry alongside him. The Bucks and Pelicans held him to just 10-28 from the floor, so his production hasn’t been anywhere near where it needs to be. That could also keep his ownership numbers low. I like him to find his stroke against Atlanta, especially if Millsap and Howard lock down the middle.
Bradley Beal ($7,500): Shooting guard has been the sore spot on defense for the Kings all year. Even the horde of guards they plucked from New Orleans for DeMarcus Cousins hasn’t shored up the position defensively. Beal torched them in the first meeting with 47.5 DraftKings points. Don’t be surprised if he does it again, especially since Beal is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game over the last ten games. He wont slow down here.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($7,000): Thompson did well against the Timberwolves even when Zach LaVine was healthy. He picked up 82 DraftKings points in two games against them earlier this year. Thompson was the only bright spot for the Warriors against Boston on Wednesday. He has been the one trying to pick up the slack with Durant out, and is having moderately more success than Curry. The potential is here for another good game.
Dwyane Wade ($6,800): Wade practiced fully yesterday, and is tentatively listed as probable for tonight’s game. That is good news for us since Wade tallied 38.25 DraftKings points in the first game with Houston this year. Wade doesn’t have the upside of the more expensive options at the position, but the fact that he is returning from injury should keep his ownership down if you are chasing players that wont be highly owned.
Seth Curry ($6,700): Would you believe that the younger Curry is shooting better from the floor than his more famous brother this year? Seth has come into his own, and has only been under 30 DraftKings points (27.25) once since the All Star Break. He has been consistently over 5x value, but he hasn’t gone for over 6x since his price jumped over $6,000. He doesn’t have the huge upside that he had just a week ago, but he is still a solid producer.
Dark Horses:
Avery Bradley ($5,400): Bradley played 30 minutes on Wednesday for the first time since his return to the court. He also added a stat from every category, which is what made him one of the favorite plays of DFS players in the first half of the season. Bradley put up 40.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Denver this year, but that would be a little ambitious to expect. Bradley likely wont go over 30 minutes yet, which puts a cap on his value. However, 6x is still a possibility.
Norman Powell ($4,300): Powell has shown that he is capable of putting up great value for the price, but there is also risk tied to this since he doesn’t start. Powell has been under 5x value in the last two games. In the two games before that, he was way above. Atlanta is a good matchup for him though if he can get back up to the number of shots he was taking right after Terrence Ross was dealt.
C.J. Miles ($4,000): Miles is not a starter, but he still gets quite a few minutes off the bench, and he is in there for one reason: to shoot. Miles is 23-48 from the field in March, making him a huge value play at this price. His ceiling is around 30 DraftKings points, but are you really going to complain about 7x value?
My pick: Beal(SG), Miles(G); Bradley(SG), Miles(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100): Giannis plays all over the court, so comparing defense by position doesn’t apply to him. Of particular interest to me right now is the fact that Giannis has been playing power forward, a position that has given the Pacers fits all year long. He has 106.75 DraftKings points over two games against Indiana so far. They can barely contain him. It’s going to be near impossible for them if he spends all his time up front. This could be a big game for Antetokounmpo.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,400): Wiggins was kept under wraps by the Warriors in the first two games, but that is going to be much more difficult with Kevin Durant out. It has been a rough March for Wiggins against three teams in the top ten in defense against small forwards. He should get a bit of a reprieve tonight.
NIcolas Batum ($6,900): Batum tweaked his ankle in Wednesday’s game, but it appears that he is fine. He returned to the game, and didn’t have any discomfort yesterday. That’s a good thing since Batum has 84 DraftKings points in two games against the Magic this year. He has three straight games of more than 5x value. I doubt that stops here.
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,600): Middleton has more value on FanDuel due to the lower price, but I’m still not opposed to using him on DraftKings, especially in a good matchup. Middleton has at least 32 DraftKings points in every game since his minutes were raised to 28 or more. So long as the Bucks monitor his minutes closely, his value will be capped. However, he has proven that his floor is much more solid than a lot of mid-range options.
Jae Crowder ($5,600): On paper, this is a bad matchup, but hear me out. If Danilo Gallinari misses another game with his illness, Crowder will tangle with Juancho Hernangomez. That is a great matchup for him. Crowder lacks a high ceiling, but if Gallinari is ruled out, I expect 6x value at least.
Dark Horses:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,900): MKG has 55.25 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this year. He should have an easier road tonight as well with Gordon now sliding down to power forward. Kidd-Gilchrist relies on defensive stats to get value for us. He could have a ton of rebounds and blocks against Terrence Ross tonight.
Tony Snell ($3,800): Snell’s minutes haven’t diminished, even with the return of Middleton. He is in there because of his defensive chops, so he doesn’t always have consistent value. He has put up 49 DraftKings points in two games against Indiana. As long as Snell gets minutes, and there is no indication that he wont, he is a good sleeper pick for 7x value.
My Pick: Batum(SF), Snell(F); Antetokounmpo(SF), Middleton(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($8,000): Green has averaged 41.4 DraftKings points per game since Kevin Durant went down. In the first meeting with Minnesota, Green picked up 35.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. There is potential for a big scoring night from Draymond here since Durant is out.
Paul Millsap ($7,400): Millsap is on a roll right now. He has at least 5x value in each of the last six games. Toronto may provide more resistance with Ibaka up front now, but with the way Millsap is playing now, will it matter? He has been a lot more aggressive on the offensive end lately, which gives him a nice floor.
Honorable Mention:
Wilson Chandler ($7,100): Nikola Jokic is still suffering from the flu, and was unable to practice last night. I would say that makes him more towards doubtful than questionable. Chandler has 99 DraftKings points in the two games with Jokic out. He also put up 33.75 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against Boston the first time around. The Celtics are pretty weak up front. Chandler could dominate again if Jokic is held out.
Markieff Morris ($6,200): This is a big risk since Morris has struggled mightily lately. He has just 51.5 DraftKings points in the last three games combined. The only reason I would consider him here is because the Kings are thin up front. There is a serious amount of risk involved here, but he could come up big. Are you willing to take the chance?
Dirk Nowitzki ($6,100): Dirk lit up the Lakers, and when the dust cleared, he had over 30,000 points for his career. He only played 24 minutes because the team didn’t need him. However, he still has more than 40 DraftKings points in each of the last two games. The Nets are awful up front, which presents Dirk with another chance to get us a lot of value for a reasonable price.
Dark Horses:
Gorgui Dieng ($5,200): Towns should draw the defensive wrath of Draymond, which should leave Dieng with some room to operate. He has 57 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors so far this year. Golden State’s defense is not quite as tough with Durant out, but they are still a good unit. Dieng doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he shouldn’t have a problem with 5x value tonight.
Skal Labissiere ($3,500): The Kings rotation is far from a certain thing right now. They are trying all sorts of different lineups in search of what will work for them going forward. They haven’t settled on any one thing so far, but Labissiere has been mostly consistent as far as minutes go. Cauley-Stein is $1,400 more, so if I’m taking a flier on anyone on this team, I’m finding the cheapest one possible!
My pick: Dieng(PF); Millsap(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600): Towns extended his streak of 20+ point games to 18 against the Clippers on Wednesday. There seems to be no stopping him right now. Of course, just because he is dumping in points by the bushel doesn’t mean he is reaching 5x value. There is a pretty big drop off at center tonight, so as long as Towns hits 50 DraftKings points, he may be worth paying for anyway.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,300): Charlotte has had issues with centers since Frank Kaminsky went down. There is no official word on if Vucevic will play or not. He has missed three straight games with a sore Achilles, so there is no guarantee if and how much he will play. Keep an eye on the official report. If Vucevic is in, I want a part of this. Even if Bismack Biyombo starts, I would strongly consider using him.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($6,900): Howard has 86 DraftKings points in two games agianst Toronto so far this year. The resurgence of Millsap has actually helped Howard’s production. Howard has averaged 36.9 DraftKings points per game since the All Star Break. His inconsistency early in the season scared off many DFS players, but it appears as though Howard is finally safe again.
Mason Plumlee ($5,900): Plumlee is only in play if Jokic is out again. With Jokic out, he has 75.5 DraftKings points in just two games! You have to wonder if Denver wont try to use Plumlee and Jokic together once both are healthy. Until that happens though, Plumlee has no place in DFS circles unless Jokic sits.
Greg Monroe ($5,800): The Bucks are still starting Thon Maker at center, but it has been Monroe who plays the most minutes there. He has 89.5 DraftKings points in just 51 minutes against Indiana this year. Monroe is a low risk-high reward play for tonight. Usually non-starters don’t have much for upside, but its hard to ignore that little stat nugget.
Dark Horses:
Cody Zeller ($5,200): Zeller is back to playing big minutes again, but is not always putting up big numbers. In two earlier games against the Magic, Zeller has 41.5 DraftKings points in just 46 minutes. This play is a little less intriguing if Vucevic is back since Biyombo is better defensively, but Zeller could still put up good numbers for his price. He is certainly receiving the minutes to do it.
Clint Capela ($5,200): Okay Capela, we’re listening! Capela racked up 38 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes agianst a stout Jazz front on Wednesday. He has provided some nice value of late, and seems to be even better against teams that play tougher defense. Capela picked up 26.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Bulls. 5x value seems like his floor right now.
Kosta Koufos ($3,900): Believe it or not, Koufos has been the most consistent of the Kings’ big men lately. He has averaged 29 DraftKings points per game over the last three games. He is 18-34 from the floor in that span. So long as he keeps shooting like this, he is one of the best values around.
My pick: Monroe(C), Capela(UTIL); Plumlee(C), Capela(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!