FanDuel EPL DFS Picks & Lineups – March 11 2017
By David Gate
With FA Cup action returning there is a small 3 game slate for FanDuel EPL DFS this weekend. We’ve got you covered for picks, tips and lineups!
Last week was a rare down week for the FanDuel picks. We were hurt by a combination of Sanchez being benched, Ozil being ill and the Watford v Southampton game turning into a shootout! The highest ranking teams last week all had huge Southampton stacks. The main take away from that game is that Gabbiadini is the real deal.
This week is a small slate but I see a number of ways to find GPP success. None of the top 6 teams are playing meaning there is value all over some appealing matchups. Because of the small slate I am going to break the down game by game rather by position this week.
Teams release their lineups an hour before kick off – which will be around 9am ET on Saturday. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations as accurately as they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The best EPL DFS lineups have 4x value to $1k of FanDuel budget. These lineups are designed for GPP play rather than cash. Because of the scoring in soccer DFS that means chasing goals and assists wherever you can find them. It often means looking in places where others won’t rather than just load up with the highest priced strikers on the slate.
My picks are ranked out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and fair match up
*** Three Stars = excellent option with a strong match up
FanDuel EPL Picks – Hull v Swansea
Both of these teams defenses have featured regularly in my articles. They have been matchup proof. Not because they are good but because they are bad. Rather their midfields are bad meaning these defenses get to work a LOT. Now while that works when these teams play anyone else it doesn’t work when they play each other. It’s just two bad teams going at it. The bookies odds for there being under 2.5 goals for this game is 4/6. Consequently I am going to fade this game in GPP play with a couple of exceptions.
While I will be ignoring both defenses I am interested in Eldin Jakupovic (6400)** of Hull. There are only 6 goalkeepers available. Artur Boruc (7000) and Joel Robles (6700) are both overpriced and Fabianski (6200) a non-factor in DFS. Jakupovic is a good a bet as any to get the clean sheet bonus and some saves or defensive stats to boot.
The big play from this game is Gylfi Sigurdsson (11000). He is the second priciest player on the slate and will be highly rostered. This is his highest price of the season and while he is clearly able to get 4x value he has only made 44+ FanDuel points twice in 27 games this year. You are gambling that this is the third time he makes it there. I expect he will be 50% rostered and at this price there is not the upside in GPP play. You may not feel able to move away from him in cash games.
I am far more interested in Leroy Fer (6400)** and Tom Carroll (5400)** who both got assists against Burnley last week and are far more likely to reach their value. These guys will give you the opportunity to target better options in other games. Fernando Llorente is an okay play but after grabbing two goals last week I think a lot of people are gonna reach for him and at that price I’m not keen.
FanDuel EPL Picks – Everton v West Brom
At the GK position I like Ben Foster (6400)** as the best option this week to get stats with the small possibility of a clean sheet. I’m pretty certain he won’t get that bonus but he should have a solid floor from saves and clearances anyway.
The pricing for both team defenses is fair all round. If you’re looking for value then Jonny Evans (5400)* stands out. If you’re chasing goals and assists from this position then I’d look to Seamus Coleman (6600)***. His attacking stats have dipped slightly since they moved back to a back four but he is always a threat, especially at home.
While all the West Brom midfielders are good cash game plays at their prices I am not buying into their upside for GPP play this week. I’ll be surprised if West Brom score more than one goal on Saturday. They only have 12 goals on the road this year and Everton rank 3rd best for goals conceded at home (10).
I much prefer the Everton midfielders in this game. Ross Barkley (9200)** will be highly owned this week on a small slate but I like him anyway. I especially like him in a stack with Romelu Lukaku (12500)**. He also will be highly rostered but you can find variance in other places and feel okay about this chalky pair.
FanDuel EPL Picks – Bournemouth v West Ham
So you may have noticed that I’ve been fairly mild in picks for Saturday. This is because I banking this game as the one to target. Any Bournemouth game has a good chance to be a shootout but I think this is more likely than not this week. The Cherries have been on a terrible slide down the table and they will be looking at this game as a huge opportunity to give them some breathing room. The reverse fixture earlier in the season was a 4-3 goal fest.
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Last week Artur Boruc (7000) had an exceptional game against Man Utd at Old Trafford. He got a price bump as a result but there is nothing in his game log to make you believe he can recreate it. Percentage chance he gets a clean sheet: 0%. Darren Randolph(6400)** is a much better play at a better price.
Bournemouth have conceded the second most headed goals this year (11). West Ham have scored the third most (11). That is with Andy Carroll (7800)*** only playing 13 out of the 27 games. The EPL is so fluid and unpredictable it is hard to nail down who will score. This is as nailed on as it gets. I am getting a 100% exposure to Andy Carroll especially at his price.
I will be pairing him with Michail Antonio (7400)*** whose price has dropped after a few poor outings. He was deputizing in the striker role before Carroll’s return . Now he is back out on the wing in his natural role. I have no worries about the young Englishman. Robert Snodgrass (7200)** is a good play this week as their set piece taker though he hasn’t had a breakout game since his transfer from Hull.
All my favorite defensive plays are also in this game this week. Steve Cook (6500)*** is set to match up with Carroll and will be busy all game. With Francis injured and Mings suspended he is an elite play this week. At the other end of the price spectrum is left back Brad Smith (4900)** who should come in for Mings. In GPP play I love Aaron Cresswell (5300)** who is a sneaky play for an assist in this game as the team look to hit Carroll.
Other solid plays in this game are Adam Smith (5600)** and Ryan Fraser (5500)**.
FanDuel EPL Lineups
Lineup 1
FWD: Lukaku – Everton
FWD: Carroll – West Ham
MID: Barkley – Everton
MlD: Antonio – West Ham
MID: Schneiderlin – Everton
DEF: Brad Smith – Bournemouth
DEF: Cresswell – West Ham
GK: Randolph – West Ham
Lineup 2
FWD: Carroll – West Ham
FWD: King – Bournemouth
MID: Antonio – West Ham
MlD: Snodgrass – West Ham
MID: Barkley – Everton
DEF: Coleman – Everton
DEF: Cook – Bournemouth
GK: Foster – West Brom
Best of luck in your FanDuel EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Tiwtter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!