FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 10
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s eight game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday Night’s main slate saw winning GPP scores land just over the season average at 385.7 FanDuel points. Over the first 110 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.8 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 110 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.8 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Thursday Night’s Picks and Pivots main lineup landed across the cash line in all formats with a 313.1 FanDuel point output on the back of our Lakers/Suns stack paired with a 60.6 FD point outing from LeBron James. The biggest difference maker on the night however was Jusuf Nurkic who dropped 77 FanDuel points on the Sixers with 28 points, 20 rebounds, 8 assists, 6 blocks and 2 steals.
We have a solid Friday night slate to dive into with a few spots we want to maximize our exposure to so let’s dive into our initial roster build and help you get an early start on this slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Isaiah Thomas ($9,200) As of the writing of this article, we are still awaiting totals/Vegas line due to a plethora of injury concerns on the Nuggets side of this game, but I would expect this to be one of the highest projected scoring games as the Celtics have the third highest average point per game total of any team on this slate, while the Nuggets have the fifth highest!
The Celtics will see solid pace boost in this spot and IT4 gets one of the best match-ups on the board as he will take on a Denver team that is ranked 27th in DvP to opposing PG’s. Thomas’ price has come down to a point where we get a significant discount on him off guys like Stephen Curry/John Wall who are $1k-$1.5k higher while having similar upside in this spot.
Jamal Murray ($3,700) On Thursday, a news blurb came out that Mike Malone was looking to get Jamal Murray more minutes for Denver as the team goes down the stretch. With this news coming out on Thursday, while everyone was focused on that night’s slate, it may get completely overlooked and allow us to target a high upside GPP play before the rest of the field takes advantage!
We are slowly starting to see a trend develop where Jameer Nelson‘s production and minutes are coming down which is allowing the explosive Murray to see the floor more while Emmanuel Mudiay appears to be out of the rotation entirely. Murray has seen at least 24 minutes of court time in three of his last four games and has hit 6x value in every single one of those games.
Quite simply, if Murray gets the minutes, the production is going to follow and tonight he gets to face off with Isaiah Thomas who has the worst individual defensive rating of any player in the NBA. Giddy up!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($11,800) Shooting guard is a position on many slate I look to punt but on this slate I actually think you should look to pay up at both spots as we have a few shooting guards in elite spots tonight and we can start with the best of them all – James Harden!
Harden and the Rockets have the highest implied team total on the slate as they take on a Bulls team that Harden just dropped 42 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists and 72 FanDuel points against! There is a ton of sneaky value tonight in Denver which makes paying up for Harden very easy and I am looking to anchor my lineups with him tonight as I expect he will be the highest scoring point performer on this slate!
Bradley Beal ($7,600) The Wizards are another team in an elite spot tonight as they take on an awful Sacramento Kings team while having the third highest team total on the board. With this game in Sacramento, the Vegas spread is only at 8 points so we can feel comfortable that the Wizards stars will get their full complement of run tonight in a perfect DFS environment.
Beal is playing some of his best basketball of the season and has put up 30 or more FanDuel points now in eight straight games! The Kings are ranked 27th in DvP against opposing SG’s this season and Beal dropped 43 FanDuel points on them in their only other match-up this season.
As I noted, there is enough value tonight in Denver with all the injury issues the Nuggets are having that I think you can easily pay up at both SG spots tonight, locking in a tremendously safe floor for cash games and elite GPP upside with Harden/Beal!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Wilson Chandler ($7,000) The price has spiked to a point where people may shy away from him, but Chandler is one of the core pieces of my lineup build tonight for a variety of reasons. First, the Nuggets have already ruled out Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic is questionable and missed practice yesterday and was reportedly “very ill” while Danillo Gallinari was only able to practice partially and remains questionable!
With all three of those players off the floor, Chandler leads the team in usage at 25.4% and averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute. The match-up with the Celtics is perfect for Chandler as they have struggled with opposing big men all season long as with Chandler at the 4, I do not see anyone that the Celtics can put on him to slow him down.
Chandler just continues to log major minutes for the depleted Nuggets and we saw his upside just two games ago when he dropped 57.4 FanDuel points against the Kings. I am looking to stack this Nuggets/Celtics game heavily tonight and Chandler will be my top correlation play with Isaiah Thomas on the Celtics side.
Otto Porter ($5,900) Porter is one of those players in DFS that becomes very intriguing whenever his price drops and now that he is under $6k, in a game against the Kings, I think this is the perfect spot to jump back on!
Porter is a volatile player from a DFS perspective but his upside is very real as he has hit 6x value in two of his last four games and takes on a Kings team that is giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing SF’s over the last 10 games. I love the idea of stacking Beal/Porter in this spot to maximize my Wizards exposure and the price point is such that we have massive profit potential!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Juancho Hernangómez ($3,600) Power forward is by far my least favorite position on this slate so I am going to look to save salary here and Hernangomez makes for an ideal GPP punt play considering all the Nuggets injuries. With Jokic/Gallinari/Faried off the floor last game, Hernangomez stepped into the starting lineup and notched 7 points/9 rebounds which was good for 23.3 FanDuel points which is nearly 6.5x value at this price point!
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Aaron Gordon ($5,600) I am sure regular readers of Picks and Pivots are sick of me writing about Aaron Gordon but on a slate where I am not enthralled by any top end PF’s, I think it is wise to spend down on a player like Gordon who is simply priced too low for his level of production.
Gordon has hit 5x value in three of his last four games and has flashed 6x upside in that span as well and tonight takes on a Hornets team that is ranked 24th in DvP to opposing PF’s and will likely continue to be without Frank Kaminsky. Over the last 10 games, the Hornets have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing PF’s and this is a spot where Gordon should be able to flirt with 6x value at this deflated price point!
Mason Plumlee ($5,600) One more time we head to Denver and another elite value play due to the injuries the Nuggets are facing is Mason Plumlee who should continue to start at Center with Nikola Jokic on the shelf. Plumlee has started the past two games, playing 31 minutes in each contest, racking up double-doubles in both games and putting up 33 FanDuel points a game which puts him right at 6x value. This may end up being a chalky play tonight but the Celtics are ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing Centers on the season and Plumlee should get all the minutes he can handle tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!