Every season the draft brings a fresh infusion of talent to the NBA. In theory this is an even, steady process. In practice, hindsight and historical perspective show that there are borders and boundaries — talent doesn’t just arrive in the NBA, it arrives in generational waves. Sometimes we can’t see these aesthetic dividing lines for decades, sometimes you simply can’t miss them.
The present day NBA appears to be on the cusp of welcoming a remarkable new generation to its forefront — players who are not just incredible but incredibly unique. Players who will not just excel but transform the roles and responsibilities of basketball players as we understand them. Over the course of this week, The Step Back will be examining many of the players who could figure prominently in The Next Generation. Not every player we turn our attention to is destined to be a star, but all could play a role in defining the future of the NBA. Read the whole series here.
The Next Generation: Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis isn’t ever going to be the best player in the league. With Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic coming, he might never be the best international player in the league. He almost assuredly won’t be the best player out of his draft class, thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns. We’re probably never going to see him win an MVP award, and given that he plays for the New York Knicks, a title is almost certainly not in his immediate future.
Kristaps Porzingis is one of my favorite young players in the league. He may not be the best young player, but he’s nicknamed “Unicorn” for a reason. We’ve never seen a Porzingis before. He’s 7-foot-3, but it’s hard to believe that he’s even his listed 240 pounds. He has a face that’s about 14-years-old on a body that looks like a fully stretched out Mr. Fantastic. He is a stretch big, hitting 37.3 percent on 4.9 3-point attempts per game, but is also a fearsome offensive rebounder and developing shot blocker. He looks incredibly uncoordinated at times, and yet he won the skills competition over All-Star weekend — a competition previously reserved for guards — and it wasn’t particularly close.
Porzingis has been somewhat of an afterthought this season in New York, but that’s not because of his play. When nearly every game is overshadowed by Carmelo Anthony’s “to trade or not to trade” saga, Phil Jackson sniping at, well, everyone, the Charles Oakley incident or Derrick Rose going AWOL, the atmosphere of the circus itself can obscure the view of its main attraction. But when that main event steps on the floor, it’s been special this year. Despite the clown car of an organization he plays for, Porzingis has played at a borderline All-Star level this season, averaging 18.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.9 blocks per game. He’s second on the team in points, rebounds and 3-pointers made, leads rotation players in shooting percentage at the rim at 69.4 percent and leads the squad in Defensive Win Shares — admittedly at the low bar of just 1.6.
Read More: The Next Generation — Luka Doncic is the truth
Porzingis lags behind many contemporaries in most statistical categories. His 3.7 Win Shares are 8th among 22-and-under NBA players. Myles Turner and Antetokounmpo boast better block rates than his 4.7 percent. Zach LaVine and Gary Harris are better 3-point shooters. Thirteen players can best his rebound rate. Seven players can beat him in Box Plus-Minus. Four beat him in VORP. Heck, he can’t even beat Joel Embiid in memeability. Porzingis hasn’t separated himself from the pack in any category in the way that Antetokounmpo’s has with shot blocking, Jokic’s has with passing and offensive metrics, and even Andrew Wiggins’ scoring production.
This is fine. Porzingis is 21, and should continue to get better. And even if he’s not at the top of the class now, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to stay a tier below the Jokics and the Townses of the NBA. But even if he doesn’t, Porzingis is worth celebrating. Because simply put, we’ve never seen anything like Porzingis before.
The list of players that have had Porzingis’ height in NBA history is short. Only 25 players belong to the 7-foot-3 club — 26 if you count Phoenix Suns rookie Dragan Bender, who’s listed at a very flattering 7-foot-1. Looking at that list, you see a lot of guys who didn’t check a lot of NBA skill boxes besides “being huge.” Sure, there are plenty of talented shot blockers on this list, but in terms of offensive skill or versatility? Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Ralph Sampson could shoot; Arvydas Sabonis was a generational passer; Yao Ming was a quality rebounder…and that’s about it. You’ll notice an absence of guys who can create off the dribble from the perimeter there.
Well, until now, that is.
Players that tall have never been able to do this at all, much less do it consistently. Porzingis drives about 1.5 times per game this season, per SportVU data, and while he hasn’t been consistent at finishing (38.0 percent shooting), he’s drawing fouls a healthy 21.8 percent of the time he drives — mostly because, as we saw with Nikola Vucevic above, bigs have no idea how to contain him.
Watch Jon Leuer when Porzingis starts driving here, as he whips his head around during the drive as if to say, “Help, someone, somewhere, because this large man is about to do a bad thing to me.”
In the Los Angeles Clippers game three weeks ago, Porzingis caught Blake Griffin in an elbow isolation. Griffin defended it really well! And it didn’t matter at all, because if you can cut Porzingis off from the rim, he’ll just hit you with the widest crossover you’ve ever seen and shoot over you.
As if that wasn’t enough, he’s also a good enough ball handler that he can lead a fast break. He’s about the same size as Ilgauskas was, and he can pull away from opponents on a fast break and get to the rim in a 2-on-1.
Porzingis’ fluidity with the ball in his hands sets him apart from other NBA players his size. But it’s not his calling card. That would be his shooting, which has taken a significant step forward in his second year in the league. After hitting 33.3 percent from the perimeter in his rookie season, he’s up around league average this year and has one of the more fluid and consistent shot releases of anyone in the NBA, much less a 7-footer.
Porzingis has great potential to develop further as a catch-and-shoot weapon, thanks to that fluid elbow and wrist motion on his jumper. He is useful as a corner 3-point shooter, but he’s more comfortable above the break, where all but 31 of his 3s have come this year, per Austin Clemens.
Porzingis thrives here because he’s able to create more natural separation above the free throw line. He’s become a more useful pick-and-pop weapon because of his improvement in setting screens, and the Knicks like to set him up with Derrick Rose because of Rose’s ability to penetrate off side pick-and-rolls, letting Porzingis drift to the center of the court and creating a long recovery for the opposing big.
Porzingis’ height gives him one of the highest releases in the NBA. Even though he doesn’t get a lot of lift from his lower body, he’s releasing over all but the longest players in the league. This allows him to be an effective shooter against contests, and he has great confidence in his release in tight spaces.
His 3-point shooting is also a deadly weapon in transition, where he looks reminiscent of another unicorn-like European big man with whom he is often compared.
Porzingis is essentially a guard playing in a 7-foot-3 body, which is exactly the charm of his game. The physics of Porzingis’ game baffle the mind at time. His crossovers can extend nearly across the paint entirely. His long strides make it look like he’s briskly jogging down the court faster than smaller players at full sprint. He’s setting high screens on players half his size, and then beating them to spots when he gets them on a switch. Watch any Knicks game and there will be at least one play that makes you ponder how such a being could exist in our understanding of physics.
That’s not to say he’s not able to do traditional big man things, though. Porzingis may not be Tristan Thompson on the offensive glass, but he reads the ball coming off the rim well and uses his impressive reach to get putbacks and tip-outs.
The biggest issue for him at this point is touch when finishing. Due to his reach, he tries to one-touch balls back towards the rim, and that ends up with the ball going a variety of directions.
But when he does get his hands on one? Watch out because THERE’S A FREIGHT TRAIN COMIN’!
On defense, it’s the same story. Porzingis is a fine defensive player, sitting in the 42nd percentile as an isolation defender, per Synergy data, and improving against pick-and-rolls. The Knicks have been 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor this year and lineups with Porzingis at the traditional five (without Joakim Noah or Willy Hernangomez on the floor) have been 0.8 points/100 possessions better defensively than their average. He’s most notable for his highlight plays, though, which mostly come in the form of weakside blocks.
Porzingis has made a big improvement as a rim protector this year. He isn’t the most technically sound shot blocker and he can find himself in foul trouble frequently, but he’s defending 7.7 rim attempts per game this season to rank eighth in the league. Only Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid can best his 44.4 percent allowed at the rim. His length is enough to still affect shots despite his imperfect timing and subpar strength. He’s looking like one of the league’s next great rim protectors, and that further complicates how you account for him on the floor. Not many players can defend adequately on the perimeter against a 7-foot-3 catch-and-shoot guy and at the same time contain the player who also doubles as the last line of defense.
Porzingis, by many measurable statistics, isn’t elite. He’s a decent 3-point shooter and solid rim protector this year, but his overall impact hasn’t been at the level of some of his contemporaries. But that doesn’t mean he’s not special. He’s just special in his own way. He makes you question what you can expect from a walking skyscraper, bringing an athletic game that in ways transcends what we’ve seen from even the game’s most elite 7-footers. He wows with highlights constantly. He has an entire country that has never had sustained basketball success on his back. He’s managed to makes this Real Housewifes of Madison Square Garden Knicks team a consistently fun League Pass option. That last one alone should be reason enough to like him.
So you can have your Embiids. Your Towns’. Your Jokics. I don’t need a strong Box Plus-Minus or consistent 20-10 production to tell me what’s a good young player. I’ll be rolling with the Evil Dead of the Next Generation, the cult classic that’s entertaining in its own special way. He may not have the theatrical brilliance or the supporting cast to be as good as the consensus classics, but that’s fine. He’s got Latvian prayer chants.
And he’s got this smile.
And that’s just as good to me. Three Six Latvia forever.
All stats up to date as of 3/4/2017.