NBA teams that out-score and lose: An investigation
By Miles Wray
Usually, a team’s average margin of victory (MOV) is as reliable a statistic as total games won if you want to figure out how good a team is. In the NBA’s whole doggone history, only 37 teams have finished the season with a losing record while cumulatively outscoring their opponents. This is including teams like the 1950-51 Syracuse Nationals. It happens about once every other year.
Maybe this is the sort of thing that will settle itself out over the final month-plus of the regular season, but: there are currently four NBA teams who are on pace to “accomplish” this “feat” this season. In the most anarchic standings on record, the Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, and Minnesota Timberwolves have managed to both rack up the points and rack up the losses. The Eastern Conference in particular is flipped upside-down. The Heat, Bucks, and Hornets rank 11th, 12th, and 13th, respectively, in the league in average MOV. They are currently lottery teams while the Atlanta Hawks — 19th in MOV — are a scant three games away from home-court advantage in the first round.
These teams are not barely below .500, either. The worst full-season finish in league history with a positive MOV belongs to the 1976-77 Phoenix Suns, who finished 34-48 (41.5 percent) one season after making it all the way to the NBA Finals. The Hornets currently have a 43.8 winning percentage, worse than all but those Suns — well, all but those Suns and this year’s Timberwolves, who are limping along at 41.3 percent, on their way to setting a new “record.”
First I’ll look at the eight teams in the 21st century who have suffered this fate, to try and find out what went, simultaneously, so wrong and so right for those squads. Then we’ll look at this year’s four teams and see if they have a shot to rise above .500 — or, perhaps, skid to a sad end with a negative MOV:
2014-15 Boston Celtics / 40-42 / MOV: 0.2
Reason: Rebuilding
We didn’t realize it at the time, but in 2014-15, Danny Ainge was pulling off one of the greatest in-season rebuilding projects. After starting the season with uninspiring Jeff Green and Rajon Rondo in the starting lineup, the Celtics ended the year having installed permanent rotation mainstays Jonas Jerebko, Jae Crowder, and Isaiah Thomas. Before the All-Star Break, Boston dug itself a huge 20-31 hole. After the All-Star Break, the new-look squad went 20-11 and managed to change the point differential from red to black, but ran out of time on the regular season to hit .500.
2007-08 Philadelphia 76ers / 40-42 / MOV: 0.4
Reason: Only good at garbage time
If you somehow happen to believe that advanced stats are ruining the game, take a gander at the 2007-08 Sixers. Coached by Mo Cheeks, Philadelphia ran out a nightly starting lineup full of individually talented players who clearly did not mesh with one another: Andre Miller, Willie Green, Andre Iguodala, Reggie Evans, and Samuel Dalembert. That’s a lineup that can gobble up rebounds, sure, but there’s a serious lack of scoring and floor-spacing there. Philadelphia’s four most-used lineups that season all produced negative point differentials. On the days when the starters did get the best of their opponents, a productive bench unit — including under-21’s Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams — helped push the margin even further into a blowout.
2006-07 Orlando Magic / 40-42 / MOV: 0.8
Reason: Late-season surge on easy schedule
I’m not sure how a team with Dwight Howard, Grant Hill, and Darko Milicic all playing as rotation regulars got lost to history but, well, it did. After slumping to 34-41 as late as April 4, this Orlando team went on a frantic push for the eighth seed, finishing out the year 6-1 — including three victories of over 20 points — against a phenomenally easy schedule. Their reward was a first-round sweep at the hands of the then-mighty Detroit Pistons.
2015-16 Utah Jazz / 40-42 / MOV: 1.8
Reason: Western Conference superpowers
Last year’s Jazz team was really good — as long as they didn’t have to play a really, really good team. Against the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Golden State Warriors, Utah went a combined 0-12, getting defeated by an average of 15.4 points per game. Against the rest of the league, they went 40-30, with an average margin of victory of 4.6 points.
This year’s Jazz team has improved in just about every way possible, including up against the superpowers. Against the West’s top three seeds this year (Warriors, Spurs, Houston Rockets), Utah is a respectable 3-4.
2013-14 Minnesota Timberwolves / 40-42 / MOV: 2.7
Reason: Fourth quarter follies
Even if “clutch” doesn’t exist — this Timberwolves team was the least-clutch team of all-time. Through three quarters, Minnesota was the second-best team in the whole NBA — better than every team but the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs. In the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves devolved into the second-worst team in the league — with a worse point differential than Year 1 of Sam Hinkie’s Sixers. Despite the league’s tenth-best overall point differential, Minnesota was forced to dispatch a representative to the lottery for the umpteenth straight year.
2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks / 31-35 / MOV: 0.3
Reason: Mid-season trade
In the lockout-shortened season, the Bucks made a trade that could receive every possible grade in the post-mortem analysis — depending on what year you’re grading the trade in. Sitting at 19-24, Milwaukee dealt away Andrew Bogut — whose season was over after just 12 games — and received Monta Ellis in return, in the midst of his third straight 20-point season.
The Bucks surged to a 12-9 finish with Ellis and the Warriors looked like chumps — especially when Milwaukee blew them out by 20 points a few days after the deal. A few years later, Golden State would obviously look like geniuses — and Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles would look misguided for tethering young players Jon Leuer, Tobias Harris, and Larry Sanders to the bench in 2011-12 despite all posting solid on/off numbers.
2014-15 Utah Jazz / 38-44 / MOV: 0.2
Reason: Mid-season trade
Unlike the Trade Deadline deals from the 2011-12 Bucks or 2014-15 Celtics, the 2014-15 Jazz made a deal for future draft picks that also helped the team immediately. After sending Enes Kanter to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah solidified its identity as a defensive stalwart under Quin Snyder, and a 19-34 team finished out the year 19-10, boosting its point differential past the break-even point in the process. Plus, Oklahoma City’s 2018 first-rounder (top-14 protected) is still due to Utah from the deal.
2014-15 Indiana Pacers / 38-44 / MOV: 0.3
Reason: Injuries
Because he had the singular, unlucky misfortune of being traded for a mid-round pick who would become a perennial MVP candidate, George Hill has become one of the game’s most underrated players. In 2014-15, the Pacers’ season appeared to be lost before it was started, thanks to Paul George’s gruesome broken leg playing for Team USA in the summer of 2014. In truth, this team was still a playoff candidate with Paul George in a suit and Hill in the lineup. When Hill played, the team went 26-17 — with a huge positive differential — and slumped to 12-27 when Hill didn’t dress. (Hill is doing the same thing for this year’s Jazz, who are a strong 27-11 when he plays and 14-13 when he sits.)
*****
Now, moving on to this year’s teams:
Milwaukee Bucks / 30-33 / MOV: 0.5
Reason: Injuries
His game is not built to attract a cult following — and it hasn’t — but Khris Middleton has been an incredibly effective player for the Bucks. Last year, Milwaukee would get blown out when he was on the bench — and play something close to playoff-caliber basketball when he was on the floor. The Bucks’ most-used lineups this year have not been successful, but the recent injection of Middleton has quickly boosted the team’s point differential, with Milwaukee going 7-4 in games he has played in.
Miami Heat / 31-34 / MOV: 0.5
Reason: Historically unprecedented winning streak
Miami’s season keeps popping up as one of the most unprecedented years of all-time, starting with their 13-game winning streak in January. After going 10-24 in 2016, the Heat have been 21-10 since they flipped the calendar to 2017, and it seems like a matter of time before they punch into the playoffs.
Charlotte Hornets / 28-36 / MOV: 0.3
Reason: Fourth quarter follies
It’s not quite as bad as the Timberwolves of a few years ago, but this year’s Hornets do turn into pumpkins when the clock resets to 12 for the fourth quarter. Through three quarters, Charlotte is leading their opponents by an average of 1.7 points per game — just ahead of the Celtics and Raptors. But both Boston and Toronto continue to push their leads in the fourth quarter, while the Hornets have lost that quarter by a point a night, a bottom-ten margin in the league.
Next: Is Jusuf Nurkic the greatest Trail Blazers player of all time? Yes.
Minnesota Timberwolves / 26-37 / MOV: 0.0
Reason: Took months to find best starting lineup
Zach LaVine has a lot of promise as an NBA player, and nobody gets particularly excited to see Brandon Rush in the starting lineup. However, Minnesota has started dramatically boosting their point differential since LaVine went down with a torn ACL, forcing Rush into the starting lineup. This season, with LaVine alongside the team’s regular four starters — Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, and Karl Anthony-Towns — Minnesota was outscored, cumulatively. Swapping out LaVine for Rush, Minnesota outscores their opponents by more than seven points per 100 possessions. That’s a greater margin than even the Celtics’ all-healthy starting lineup of Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, and Al Horford. Minnesota has won six of their last nine games, with a double-digit margin of victory in all six games.