DraftKings Late NBA Picks March 11

We have 12 games in the NBA on our Saturday. A majority (nine) of those games make up the main DraftKings tournament. There are a lot of stars on display here as well, but there are enough bargains to allow us to use a couple of studs. Especially with the Warriors resting all of the uninjured starting five. Who should we target? Let’s hit some stats!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

John Wall ($10,100): Wall played just 27 minutes in the first meeting with Portland due to blowout circumstances, but he still picked up 42.5 DraftKings points. Judging by the fact that Wall played 41 minutes last night in the comeback win over the Kings, he could see a lot of bench time in this one as well. That hurts his bottom line, and makes him more of a risk than usual. However, the Blazers are still statistically the worst team defending the point should you take a chance on Wall.

Kemba Walker ($8,100): Walker had 43.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans. That will fit right in line with Walker’s current success. Walker has six consecutive games between 43 and 49 DraftKings points. That kind of consistency can help you take down a GPP tournament. Walker is a great foundation piece in all formats tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($7,900): I love Mike Conley! Really, I do. And so does everyone else who writes NBA advice columns. Conley comes up big against the bottom ten point guard defenses, and struggles against those in the top ten. Like clockwork. Every time. No anomalies. Atlanta is in the bottom five in point guard defense. Look for Conley to top 40 DraftKings points again!

Jrue Holiday ($7,000): Holiday put up 40 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Charlotte. There is risk involved here though. Holiday has just 42.25 DraftKings points in the last two games combined. Of course, that was against Utah and Toronto. He has the potential to get back on track here, but Charlotte has a solid point guard defense, at least statistically. Goran Dragic lit them up on Thursday.

Elfrid Payton ($7,000): Believe it or not, Elfrid Payton had back to back triple doubles earlier in the week. I wouldn’t go expecting another against Cleveland, but the Cavs have struggled against point guards this year. Payton has always been a solid rebounder, but he has really emerged as a distributor. Payton has more than ten assists in four of the last five games. He is going to be widely owned tonight, but he could be in store for another big game.

Dark Horses:

Ty Lawson ($4,900): Lawson lit up his former team for 33 DraftKings points earlier this week. Okay, that is lighting someone up when you cost less than $5,000. Just go with it! Perhaps more impressive was that Lawson accomplished that while going just 2-8 from the floor. He is an intriguing option tonight since I doubt Denver is any better now than they were on Monday.

Dejounte Murray ($3,500): Murray is only in play if Tony Parker sits again. If Parker plays, I will defer to Patty Mills. Both Mills and Murray cannibalize the value of each other, but since the Warriors may be plucking people out of the crowd since their whole starting five is out. Whoever starts for the Spurs could be in for a good night.

Shaun Livingston ($3,200): Livingston rested last night, and no one batted an eye. Stephen Curry rests and the internet explodes! The NBA can’t be pleased that the Warriors are doing this, but it is fitting against the Spurs. San Antonio are the ones that made resting players the cool thing to do, no matter who the opponent was. Livingston should play til he pukes, so he could rack up a nice total for his price by that time.

My picks: Walker(PG); Conley(PG), Payton(G)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400): DeRozan racked up 43 DraftKings points on the Heat in the first meeting. Before you go off saying that Miami wasn’t at full health, they were. Kyle Lowry even played in that game! DeRozan is always a threat for a huge game with Lowry out, no matter who they are playing against.

Bradley Beal ($7,500): Beal was the highest scorer of the night last night at any position! He put up 42 DraftKings points on Portland in the first meeting. With the way Beal is playing right now, he could do even better than that tonight. He is a suitable alternative to DeRozan, and could even outperform him so long as the Wizards don’t decide to rest him.

Honorable Mention:

Nicolas Batum ($7,000): Batum has four straight games of more than 5x value. He was close to that (32.25 DraftKings points) in the first meeting against New Orleans. Now that the Pelicans have some consistency in their lineup, their defense has done better. I still don’t think they are good enough to hold Batum enough under value to really hurt a lineup.

Devin Booker ($6,400): Apparently Booker didn’t get the memo that Dallas is tough on guards. Booker has 72.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Mavericks this year. 61 of those came on points that went through the basket! Booker has done a better job of passing and rebounding lately, which gives him a higher floor than the more expensive Seth Curry. While Curry will be the best Curry in action tonight, I’m still not convinced he is a better play than Booker in this price range.

Evan Fournier ($5,700): Fournier had 33 DraftKings points in the first game against Cleveland this season. Fournier has topped 20 points in each of the last two games, and just missed in the one before that. He doesn’t have a ton of upside with Iman Shumpert harassing him, but he is trending in the right direction. Can he build on this?

Dark Horses:

Gary Harris ($5,600): Harris has been on fire from outside lately, going 30-63 from downtown over the last ten games. Even though the Nuggets are nearly fully healthy right now, Harris continues to get good minutes. He will so long as he shoots like this. He has been over 5x value in nine of the last ten games.

Tim Hardaway ($5,300): Hardaway is averaging 35 DraftKings points per game over the last five games. Perhaps what is most eye-opening about this is the fact that the Hawks are fully healthy. Hardaway is still getting a ton of minutes even though Thabo Sefalosha is lurking. Memphis has had trouble tracking outside shooters this year, so Hardaway could be in line for another game well above 5x value.

Ian Clark ($3,000): Klay Thompson is also out, which means Clark will get a lot of run in this game. Last night Clark shined in his 13 minutes on the court, topping double figures in points for the second time in three games. Clark may have the greatest potential of any of the Warriors’ bargain plays.

My pick: Clark(SG); Beal(SG),

Small Forwards

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,000): The Kings has three triple-doubles since Kevin Love went down. While Kyrie Irving has seen a bit of an uptick in scoring, LeBron’s production is up across the board. He has four straight games of between 65 and 70 DraftKings points. He is absolutely worth the price tonight. Do you really think Terrence Ross and/or Evan Fournier can guard him? Puh-leez.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100): Giannis stuffed the stat sheet last night, which is nothing new for him. It doesn’t matter where he plays, he produces from every position on the court. Minnesota really has no answer for him defensively. Then again, who does?

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Wiggins ($7,400): Wiggins beat up on the Bucks for 47.75 DraftKings points earlier this year. The caveat is that Middleton was still out at that point. Wiggins has gone ice cold lately since his 20+ points streak ended. He is just 27-78 from the floor over the last four games. No wonder he hasn’t broken 30 DraftKings points in that span! When he does start hitting his shots again, Wiggins will be a great value at this price, but it is always a risk playing a slumping player.

Khris Middleton ($6,600): Middleton played a season high 37 minutes last night, but if history is any indicator, Middleton may be severely limited, or rested all together, in the second night of a back to back. He looks like the dominant player that he was until his injury last year, and is certainly worth playing so long as he is not under any team limits. Make sure to check before using him tonight.

Harrison Barnes ($6,400): Barnes has seen a sharp decline in production since the return of Wesley Matthews, especially since Seth Curry is hogging the minutes at shooting guard. However, Barnes has 74.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder. Barnes is the kind of athlete that can give the Suns fits. I wouldn’t worry about his recent decline tonight. He was back to 5x value last night against the Nets. He should be there again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Johnathon Simmons ($3,900): Simmons looks to be the favorite to start in place of the concussed Kawhi Leonard. He picked up 32 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes in the first meeting against the Warriors. Simmons has huge upside here not having to deal with any of the Warriors’ starters. He should perform way above his cost.

Matt Barnes ($3,300): Barnes has yet to play more than 20 minutes in a game as a member of the Warriors, but that will change tonight. Steve Kerr wont have a choice but to play him! Barnes is a good producer when he gets solid minutes, at least he was with the Kings. Barnes has huge upside with the prospect of a lot of minutes coming his way and with no Kawhi to deal with.

Patrick McCaw ($3,300): McCaw has been mostly a disappointment despite the heavy increase in minutes since Kevin Durant went down. Someone will have to take the shots tonight, but it may not be McCaw. The only time he has really hit value is when he is efficient from the floor. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing when he will do that.

My Pick: Barnes(SF), Simmons(G); Simmons(SF), Barnes(F)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400): Yawn! Just another 20+ point game for Towns last night. That is his 19th straight game at that mark, the best streak in the NBA. No one can really stop Towns right now, and that likely wont change since the Bucks are not a strong team on the interior.

Anthony Davis ($9,900): Both Davis and Cousins abused Charlotte earlier this season. They were on separate teams at the time though. Predicting which one will go off is very hard to do, but this is a situation where both of them could dominate the game from the interior. It has happened before. Davis is slightly more of a risk because of the tender wrist that forced him out of Wednesday’s game. He seems fine now, but keep an eye out for updates. Wrists can change in the blink of an eye.

Honorable Mention:

Wilson Chandler ($7,100): Chandler has been a force since moving to power forward. Even with Jokic back in action last night, Chandler racked up 40 DraftKings points. He has averaged 44.8 DraftKings points per game over the last four games. Chandler racked up 118.75 DraftKings points in three games against the Kings this year, and that was before they gutted their frontcourt. There is a great chance Chandler hits 40 again.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,400): Here is an interesting predicament for the Warriors. Who in the world is going to guard Aldridge? McAdoo? Looney? Matt Barnes, perhaps? Well, Adridge racked up 51 DraftKings points on Draymond Green and the Warriors earlier this year. What will he do against the bench?

Markieff Morris ($6,400): Morris is hard to trust right now considering that he has not been anywhere near 5x value, and has been under 4x value three times, in the last four games. He did abuse Portland up front in the first game against them this year though. Morris had 50.75 DraftKings points in that game. Can he get back to that form?

Dark Horses:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,000): The constant messing with the lineups is maddening, but Cauley-Stein is a force when he gets enough minutes. He has 19.25 DraftKings points against Denver on Monday. He had his best game as a pro last night though. Will he get a chance to build on it?

Nemanja Bjelica ($3,800): His versatility, and the lack of anyone seizing the SG job with Zach LaVine out, has opened up a lot more opportunities for Bjelica. Minnesota isn’t making the playoffs this year, so they are giving the youngster more looks lately. He has responded with at least 5x value in four of the last five games. He has even gone over 9x value in three of those!

My pick: Towns(PF), Bjelica(F), Chandler(UTIL); Aldridge(PF)

Center

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,300): Jokic has gone over 50 DraftKings points in four straight games, his second such streak since Nurkic was dealt to Portland. He has the potential to destroy the Kings on this inside. Even if Sacramento elects to go small, Jokic has such a good all around game that it shouldn’t affect his production much. He has the potential for a huge game tonight.

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,100): Cousins put up 67 DraftKings points on the Hornets in the first meeting. Expecting that again could be a tall order with Anthony Davis in there, but if Davis’s wrist starts bothering him at all, Cousins will immediately get a huge boost in value. Of course, the issue here is that it likely wont happen until after the game starts. He has the best potential upside of the twin towers tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,800): Whiteside racked up 51.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Raptors this year. It could be a little tougher with Serge Ibaka around tonight, but Whiteside’s size is what really gets him his value. Ibaka could steal a few rebounds from him, but he wont diminish the blocks.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): I can’t believe that Nurkic is still this cheap! People are going to be all over him at this price after his 81 DraftKings point outburst against the Sixers on Thursday. Washington is better on the interior, but considering he only needs 33.5 DraftKings points for 5x value, he should reach that without much of a problem.

Alan Williams ($6,500): Dallas has struggled defensively without Andrew Bogut patrolling the middle. That is good news for Williams. He has at least 29 DraftKings points in every game this month. That means he has a solid floor and the potential to net you over 40. He is an interesting pivot option to Nurkic.

Dark Horses:

Greg Monroe ($5,800): Thon Maker still starts, and John Henson even re-entered the rotation last night, but Monroe still gets the lion’s share of the minutes inside. The Timberwolves allow a lot of points to opposing centers, so Monroe could be a nice value play here.

Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800): Valanciunas has 83.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. Having Ibaka around seems to have helped his production along. Whiteside is an imposing presence on the inside, but aside from blocking shots, he is not a great defender. He is more of a shot alterer than a lock down defender. Valanciunas is an intriguing option who is playing well right now.

Kosta Koufos ($3,900): If you are fading the Warriors/Spurs value picks, Koufos should be your value target. He has at least 5x value in five of the last six games. The rotation is fluctuating around him, but the veteran Koufos is getting the most consistent run up front for the Kings right now. That makes him a solid source of value with little risk involved.

My pick: Jokic(C); Cousins(C), Koufos(UTIL)

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