NBA FanDuel Top 5 Plays For March 11th
By Bruce Lamb
NBA FanDuel Top 5 Plays For March 11th
Last night was a weird one for NBA FanDuel and my lineups specifically. My cash game lineup started off so slow I was worried I was going to miss the payline for the 2nd straight night. Well, Bradley Beal and Willie Cauley-Stein happened, and I went from being in the low 90’s to the top 5 in all of my lineups with a score of 305.5. That lineup also placed pretty well in the GPP’s I entered it in. Speaking of Beal, as my cash game lock he scored 58 FDP’s (FanDuel Points). My top overall player, Karl-Anthony Towns, started off red-hot, only to cool off in the 2nd half with a disappointing 37.8 points. Wesley Matthews threw up a stinker as well scoring just 22.9 FDP’s. The blowout in Charlotte really hurt Kemba Walker holding him to just 26.5 FDP’s. Fading Isaiah Thomas worked out well, he scored 30.9 FDP’s in a 20 point loss to the Denver Nuggets.
Tonight we are getting back at it with 9 games on the main slate. The totals are relatively low tonight. Only 2 games at this time have a total listed at 215 or higher. Phoenix heads into Dallas as a 7 point dog with a 215 total. The highest total listed is Portland hosting Washington as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 226. The rest of the games on the slate with a total listed are all under 204. There are a ton of teams that have played a lot of games lately, so be extremely careful when navigating this slate. Part of the battle is trying to predict who could see a decrease in minutes or production because of how much they have played lately. The Golden State Warriors have already declared they are resting Curry, Thompson, Green, and Iguodala. Kawhi Leonard is also out for this game with a concussion. That is going to open up some serious value to make it possible to spend up on the higher priced studs. Let’s see who I’m paying up for tonight in GPP’s.
NBA FanDuel GPP Spend and Fade
DeMarcus Cousins – $10,500
The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the more rested teams on the slate. Tonight they take on the Charlotte Hornets following 2 days off. The Hornets have really missed the defense of Frank Kaminsky, and even if they had him tonight, they aren’t stopping Boogie. I think there is a slight chance we don’t see a full run from Anthony Davis, and Cousins will be relied upon a little more on the offensive side of the ball. The Hornets have given up the second most FDP’s to opposing centers since Kaminsky went down with a shoulder injury. I think everyone will be on Nurkic tonight and Boogie will fly under the radar. I’ll take him at low ownership in this spot, every single time.
John Wall – $10,700
Much like Isaiah Thomas last night, Wall is playing his 4th consecutive game out west, which also happens to be his 5th game in 7 nights. He has not played less than 35 minutes in any of those games, and last night he played 41 in the overtime win over Sacramento. I know he is in tremendous shape, but the dude needs a break. I think he sees a lighter load tonight and will not be able to take full advantage of the great match-up against the Portland Trailblazers. Another reason to fade Wall is he has scored over 50 FDP’s just twice in his last 8 games. I’ll be in full fade mode despite the value out there that will easily help him fit into your lineups. Now let’s take a look at my cash game lock and GPP value.
NBA FanDuel Cash Game Lock and GPP Value
Shaun Livingston – $3,500
He is almost a lock each time Curry doesn’t play, he is a definite lock when BOTH Curry and Thompson do not play. He will be chalky as all get out, but you have to play him tonight in cash games. He will also be well rested after taking last night off, so he will see as many minutes as he wants. The Spurs are vulnerable to opposing guards too, especially with their best defender slated to miss this game. I am going to fade him in tournaments and use the guy I’ll talk about next, but I will be locking Livingston into all of my cash game lineups.
Matt Barnes – $4,200
I really like Matt Barnes tonight for a few reasons. The Warriors are going to rest their 4 main players (Durant would be the 5th but he doesn’t count since he’s already been out). Barnes is going to have to play a ton of minutes, and we have seen what he can do when he gets a lot of minutes this season. He will have plenty of opportunities to not only get rebounds and assists, but he will also be relied upon to score. Most players are going to flock to Livingston, Clark, and McCaw. Barnes could be the 4th most popular Warrior, and he could end up the highest scoring of the 4 due to his ability to get rebounds and assists. I’m willing to take that chance in GPP’s tonight. Now, let’s look at tonight’s PayMaker.
NBA FanDuel Top PayMaker
LaMarcus Aldridge – $6,900
Anytime a team is resting a starter, you should always take a look at what that will do to the opposing team. The two best defenders the Warriors have are resting tonight. Aldridge is getting an outstanding match-up against whoever starts for the Warriors. No one playing will be able to guard him, and he gets an additional boost with Leonard out as well.
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The Spurs are only 1.5 games back of the Warriors for the top overall seed in the Western Conference. With the Warriors sitting 4 of their starters the Spurs cannot afford to lose this game. I think Aldridge dominates this game in San Antonio and puts up monster numbers for his price.
Once again it seems to me the best approach tonight is to stay more in that middle range. I’ll likely drop down to Livingston and Barnes, but I don’t plan on spending up too much. I can make a case to fade a lot of the players priced over $10K. When it looks like that I try not to force someone into my lineup and stay in that mid range.
I will be playing about 70% of my bankroll in cash games tonight and 30% in GPP’s. Like always keep in tune to news throughout the day as I’m sure we will have more guys resting. Don’t forget to take a look at how a guy sitting will affect the opposing team, you could find some better value that way and be contrarian at the same time. Good Luck tonight!
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