Will Novak Djokovic win another title this year?
Novak Djokovic has won only one tournament since July of last year. Will the PNB Paribas competition result in a much-needed win?
Novak Djokovic started out 2016 much like he the last few years — locking in two of the four grand slams, in Australia and France. He had what looked like an unsurmountable lead in the ATP ranking points and looked all but unstoppable. He was the first male tennis player to hold all four majors at the same time since Rod Laver in 1969, and the first to hold all four on three surfaces. He seemed destined to only increase his dominant ATP points hold as the clear favorite at Wimbledon and the US Open, and well on his way to capturing an expected Gold medal in Rio, far surpassing the Bronze he achieved in the 2008 Beijing games.
As assured as the first half of last year looked, the back half was turned on its head. A series of shock exits on the big stage, including a third round Wimbledon defeat by Sam Querrey and a US Open crown miss at the hands of champ Stan Wawrinka. A win in New York would have put many of the rumors of loss in form to rest. Even with the favorable head-to-head record against the Swiss player, Djokovic for some reason couldn’t close in the championship match.
Djokovic rebounded with a Toronto Open prize in July — his last win that year — but went out in a shockwave during the Summer Games in the first round against an inspired Juan Martin del Potro.
He never seemed to regain much momentum again after Rio. After he surrendered the No. 1 ranking to Andy Murray in November, he did manage to make it to the ATP Finals, but lost to the Scotsman again.
He suffered another loss at the end of the year, his coach Boris Becker, who helped him to six out of 12 of his grand slams.
2017 started out with hope alive for the Serb, giving him his first victory over Andy Murray at Doha and his first title of the year. But expectation was dashed quickly in his first grand slam loss of the year, at the hands of Denis Istomin in an early round. Compare this to last year’s final, when he sailed through the first set of the slam, easily winning 6-1 against an overwhelmed Murray.
Becker is an analyst for Eurosports live and commented after the stunning loss to Istomin in the second round of this year’s Australian Open.
“I’m really shocked that Novak Djokovic lost,” said Becker at the time. “I absolutely never expected him to have trouble with Denis Istomin. No disrespect but ‘Nole’ is a six-time Australian Open champion.”
Murray went out too, in the fourth, but managed to win in Dubai. Djokovic sat that tournament out, recovering from a shoulder injury sustained in his Davis Cup victory over Russia’s Daniil Medvedev, but decided at the last minute to ask for a wild card at Acapulco. The Serb avenged his Rio loss by beating del Potro in the second round, but then lost his next match to the young Aussie Nick Kyrgios, 7-6 (9), 7-5. Rafael Nadal, another player in the midst of his own comeback that resulted in an Australian Open final against his great rival Roger Federer, made it to the Mexican final, but lost to victor Querrey. Between the two Masters 500 events in Mexico and Dubai, Murray has the more recent win.
A change in priorities in the last six months
There have been rumors of personal issues and changes going on in the Belgrade native’s life. Djokovic talked about this at the start of the Acapulco tournament just over a week ago.
“For me, it’s essential to have the joy of playing, the love and passion for the sport,” the 29 year-old said at a press conference prior to the tournament. “If I don’t have the passion it’s hard for me to play, to do anything in life.”
There’s been a rumor that the ending of his coaching relationship with Boris Becker had something to do with tennis guru Pepe Imaz, who he’s been working closely with. Imaz is considered a kind of guru — his academy promotes the principles of peace, harmony, love and the power of lengthy hugs.
There was also talk about an existential crisis just a few months back, including news that his wife was absent in Melbourne (the speculation is that another little Djokovic is about join son Stefan), locker room talk about unusual weight loss, and the tennis star prioritizing his family over tennis. Couple that with the loss of Becker, and many in the tennis world were wondering if he lacked the motivation to stay on top.
Where the Serb failed, Murray capitalized
While the 29-year-old was showing declining form, Andy Murray began his quest to take the top spot from him. It started at Wimbledon with Djokovic out in the third round and the British player benefiting by taking his third title. Murray then not only won at the Olympics, but he achieved a record second gold medal, an accomplishment he alone holds in men’s tennis. The Brit climbed the points board with a series of successful tourneys after the Olympics. By November, it was no longer an issue of being in contention. After seven years as No. 2 to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, Murray claimed the spot for himself. Djokovic made it to the finals of the ATP World Tour, but still came up short to Murray. The British player kept the ranking at the end of the year and hasn’t lost it since.
Many think the Djokovic reign over for good
The six-time Australian Open winner has played only eight matches this year, coming into Indian Wells, meaning he’s less prepared than normal. His former mentor, Niki Pilic, told Reuters that he doubts he’ll be able to get back to his dominant form again.
"“Novak had a physical and mental edge second to none. That tenacity is no longer the same. It remains to be seen whether he can rediscover it and get back to the top level.“The hard work of the last five or six years has taken its toll. Tennis was the priority every morning and afternoon and evening and all I can tell him is to be the person he was.”"
Wimbledon grand slam winner Pat Cash thinks his days of being on top are over as well.
“His defeat [in Australia] just shows that Novak has absolutely lost his edge, there’s no doubt about that,” Cash said in a BBC interview.
“I’d love to see him competing, to be a true number two fighting for that number one spot, but at this rate I don’t think we will see that.”
But the 12-time slam champion says he’s feeling stronger than ever. He also has a 47-6 match record and is going for his sixth title at Indian Wells.
“All in all, I feel I’m in a much better state of mind than maybe I was the end of last year,” he said in a press conference prior to the BPN Paribas tournament, known as the fifth grand slam. A resurgent performance here may give him all the confidence he needs to build back up this year.
Others think he’s still a ‘fighter’
“I wouldn’t spend a lot of time worrying about Novak Djokovic,” said commentator (and former player) Justin Gimelstob, who is covering Indian Wells for Tennis Channel. “He has dominated Indian Wells and Miami. I believe he’s going to recalibrate and we’ll see him at or near the top for many years to come.”
A bounce back is what two-time champion Ile Nastase also believes.
“I think he’s going to be back,” the 70-year-old said to Sky Sports. “Maybe the other guys play well, that’s also possible. But Djokovic is a great champion and you have to count on him coming back, that’s for sure. He’s a fighter.”
No stranger to comebacks himself, tennis great Andre Agassi has said in an interview with The Independent back in January that Djokovic has a good chance to bounce back.
“I give him a high chance of coming back in a hurry,” Agassi said right after Djokovic’s loss in Australia. “There’s no reason why it can’t turn around as fast as it seems to have left him.
“We all have our own unique journey. I hit rock bottom over the course of two years and I can assure you Novak won’t have to learn in as hard a way as I had to learn but he still has time.
“He’s a heck of an athlete and in my opinion one of the greats of all time.”
His draw will make that a great difficulty
In order to make it to the finals, he’ll have to battle players who have beaten him lately, or legends who are performing close to prime form in what everyone is calling the “draw of death.” His first opponent will be Kyle Edmunds, a match he’s expected to win. However, that’s about as easy it gets. Next up is the Serb’s Olympic nemesis Juan Martin del Potro. The fourth round he’ll likely face the last player who beat him in Mexico, Nick Kyrgios, or teenage sensation Alexander Zverev, one of the few next gen stars who I believe will be a grand slam winner someday.
But if he sails through those incredible opponents, he’ll probably face either legend Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer, both having sustained recent losses in smaller tournaments, but considering their performances in Melbourne less than two months ago, either is a formidable opponent. If he sails through all that, he potentially faces his biggest rival, Andy Murray, the No. 1 seed. It will be an extremely tough draw to get through for a player recuperating from a recent injury and trying to embark on his own comeback.
“I haven’t had too many draws like that,” admitted Djokovic, in his pre-tournament presser. “It’s quite amazing to see that many quality players in one section of the draw.”
Prior to this year’s Australian Open match featuring “old timers” Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, it could be said that at 29, Novak Djokovic was reaching the age when their titles started to stall. Bearing that match in mind, the father of a 2-year-old perhaps reflected on the benefits his opponents seemed to reap from taking extended times off.
“I don’t regret things in life,” said Djokovic, speaking to the press at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. “Maybe I should have had a longer break after Roland Garros, to have more time to recharge emotionally in every aspect of my being.”
Next: Serena withdraws from Indian Wells, Miami
But he doesn’t have regrets about playing while he was off his form and the other legends were spending some rest and relaxation time. “It didn’t happen, I kept on going and I don’t regret it because I believe there was a lesson to be learned from that.”
“I think having those four or five months in the second half of 2016 was actually very important for me, for my growth as a player and as a human being. I learned a lot. I keep going. I’m obviously motivated to keep playing on a very high level,” the Begrade native explained.
He feels mentally and physically stronger going into the CA tournament.
“I feel much better in terms of my game, in terms of mental side, than I was some months ago,” said the 29-year-old. “I feel more comfortable, more fresh. I look forward to competing and I feel more confident on the court. I had to re-motivate myself and get back on track and I feel like right now it’s much better than it was.”
Novak Djokovic’s first singles match will be on Saturday. Up next after Indian Wells is another Masters 1000 event in Miami, where the right-hander will be going for his seventh title there. If he doesn’t survive the “toughest draw in history,” here at Indian Wells the Florida tournament may be a second chance to regain form.