DraftKings Late NBA Picks March 12
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late NBA Picks March 12
Five of the six NBA games are in the main DraftKings tournament tonight, with two of those games overlapping with the early slate. Most of the talent is in the main slate, so we have to be choosy with who we use. Who can help us cash? Let’s check some stats!
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The money line was way up at 284.5 DraftKings points tonight, which isn’t that surprising considering all the value plays that were available last night. One of my lineups finished well above that at 327, but the other was one of the worst that I have ever put together. It netted just 154.75 DraftKings points and all of them played! At least the good one won enough to offset one loss.
The winning lineup was way up at 386.5. He hit on all the value in the Spurs-Warriors game with Ian Clark, Kyle Anderson, and Matt Barnes. A huge game from Anthony Davis and great value from Marvin Williams put it over the top.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,000): Lillard has 90.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns so far this year. He had a big game in the overtime loss to the Wizards last night, but he still only played 36 minutes. He shouldn’t rest unless this game gets out of hand. I trust this game more than Cleveland against Houston. The Cavs may rest some players in the back to back.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,400): I don’t really trust Eric Bledsoe right now. He has only hit 5x value once since the break. Enter Russell, who has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but one game since Valentine’s Day. We all know what kind of upside he has. He is flashing it as the Lakers are finally turning him loose since the All Star Break.
Honorable Mention:
Jordan Clarkson ($5,400): Clarkson has played more than 34 minutes in each of the last two games. His playing time continues to move upwards. Even though Nick Young still starts, Clarkson is the one who has benefitted from the trade of Williams. As long as the Lakers are willing to keep using him like this, and why wouldn’t they, he is a strong bet for at least 5x value. He is a bargain at this price, but he doesn’t possess the kind of upside than can help you take down a tournament.
Tyler Johnson ($5,300): His awful game against Charlotte on Wednesday kept his ownership down last night. Those of you who took the chance on him were finely rewarded thanks in part to a wayward elbow to Goran Dragic‘s eye. Dragic was unable to return to the game, and is generously listed as questionable for today. I will be surprised if Dragic plays, but even if he does, this is a great matchup for Johnson who routinely plays 30 minutes off the bench.
Dark Horses:
Lou Williams ($5,100): The Rockets are still running Williams out there for around 25 minutes a game. It isn’t the kind of usage that he was used to as a Laker, but he is still getting plenty of shots for a contender. His diminished minutes make him more of a risk since he does little more than shoot now, but he can still put up a lot of points in a hurry.
Tyler Ulis ($4,800): Ulis has cooled off significantly since his torrid start to March. There is risk involved here if the Suns don’t keep him on the court long enough, but he has a great chance to get back on track against a Portland team that has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards this year.
My picks: Johnson(PG), Clarkson(G); Russell(PG), Williams(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,800): Harden put on a show against Cleveland earlier this year. He racked up 77.75 DraftKings points in that game, and is the only player on this slate who is capable of putting up numbers like this. He has only topped 60 twice since the All Star Break, but his matchups have been pretty tough over that span. Harden comes up big in big games. I think this qualifies.
C.J. McCollum ($7,600): McCollum has 95 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns so far this year. The Suns are still battered by opposing guards. They have solid defense on the interior, but they really don’t match up well with a Blazers team that boasts two really good guards. This could be another big game for C.J.
Honorable Mention:
Devin Booker ($6,600): Portland is solid against shooting guards, but the stats say Dallas is too. Booker ravaged Dallas for 36 points last night, and has at least 34 DraftKings points in three straight games now. He is on fire right now, and is a nice pivot off of McCollum if you are worried about ownership.
Dion Waiters ($6,500): After a couple of awful games last weekend, Waiters seems to be back on track. He has three straight games of at least 5x value since then. He picked up 31.5 DraftKings points in the first game against Indiana. That would leave him a little under value, but Waiters is the solid footing to Booker’s potential volatility.
Dark Horses:
Sean Kilpatrick ($5,300): The return of Jeremy Lin has actually helped Kilpatrick’s production. Randy Foye is still starting over him, but Kilpatrick has scored more than 20 points off the bench in three of the last four games. The only team to hold him under was a tough Dallas squad. He has struggled against the Nets this year, but both of those games were without Lin. I would take a flier on Kilpatrick over Lin because the Knicks are very good defending the point. That is another reason Kilpatrick could have a nice game.
Courtney Lee ($4,700): Lee has as least 28 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. He is an accomplished scorer, but his increased rebounding totals have had a lot to do with this surge. Lee has at least six rebounds in three of those games. He could have a field day against the Nets.
My pick: Harden(SG), Lee(UTIL), Waiters(F); Waiters(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,300): James was outshined by Harden in the first meeting, putting up just 47.25 DraftKings points to Harden’s 77.75. However, James has been a lot better than Harden lately. The injury to Kevin Love has led to LeBron strapping the Cavs to his back again. He has five consecutive games of more than 65 DraftKings points. So long as the Cavs don’t rest him, the King could do it again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($7,400): Covington wasn’t much of a factor against the Clippers yesterday, and could have similar problems against the Lakers today. That said, the dropoff at small forward is the most severe at any position. If you elect to use Harden instead of James, you have little good options left at SF. Covington has the most potential of anyone below the King, but there is still risk involved here. However, after seeing what Warren did to the Lakers on Friday, I am a little more optimistic.
T.J. Warren ($6,100): Warren was still solid in a tough matchup with Dallas last night. I would expect his numbers to be back over 5x against Portland tonight. Warren has 58.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Blazers, who are now without Evan Turner. He may be a little overlooked tonight, but could have another nice game none the less.
Dark Horses:
Maurice Harkess ($5,600): Harkless has little upside due to all of the offensive firepower on this team, but his rebounding ability keeps him at value even when he isn’t scoring a lot. He could have more scoring opportunities against the Suns tonight than he is used to. Harkless has 58.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns so far this year. That would put him close to 6x value.
Brandon Ingram ($4,900): Ingram was a non-factor in the first game against Philadelphia, but he played just 20 minutes in that game. He is the unquestioned starter for the Lakers now, and has responded with at least 5x value in all but two games since the Break. He is cheap with decent upside. What more can you ask for?
My Pick: Ingram(SF); Warren(SF), Ingram(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Dario Saric ($7,900): Saric played just 19 minutes in the first meeting between these teams. He has been much more of a factor for Philadelphia lately. In what was an all around bad game for the outside shooters against the Clippers, Saric has his worst game in nearly a month. Don’t expect the Lakers to be able to hold him down again.
Julius Randle ($7,300): Randle dominated the Sixers in the first meeting, racking up 45.75 DraftKings points in only 33 minutes. That was before Randle was a consistent force in the lineup. He is capable of big games, putting up more than 55 DraftKings points twice in March. He could flirt with that mark tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900): Porzingis has 82 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets this year. Are you worried about a blowout? Porzingis did that damage in just 56 minutes. After a slow February, Porzingis seems to be back on track for the most part. He isn’t quite the dominant force that he was before the injury, but he may look like it for one day.
James Johnson ($5,800): Johnson still doesn’t start, but DFS players still don’t care. He routinely plays 30 minutes or more, and he is almost always above 5x value. He has reached that mark in four of the last five games. The only time his missed was when he played just 18 minutes in a blowout of the Cavs. Johnson should be a cash game staple tonight.
Dark Horses:
Trevor Booker ($5,000): Booker no longer starts, but he is settling in on the second unit. He still plays around 25 minutes a game, and has been between 23 and 30 DraftKings points in all but one of the last eight games. He has little upside, but if you want a guy with a solid floor, Booker is it.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,300): RHJ is a good option at power forward against teams that lack behemoths up front. Dallas and Atlanta pushed him around and got him into foul trouble. He has 51.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks this year, so he could hit 6x value today.
Channing Frye ($3,900): Frye has only taken one shot that wasn’t a three pointer over the last two games. He is playing almost exclusively on the outside lately, which increases the risk/reward even more. Frye could help you take down a big tournament, or he could destroy your lineup. His minutes and defensive stats haven’t been consistent enough to rely on lately. He is an all or nothing play right now.
My pick: Johnson(PF); Porzingis(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Hassan Whiteside ($7,800): Whiteside has dominated the Pacers inside in two games this year. He has 104.75 DraftKings points in those two games, averaging 24 points and nearly 20 rebounds. Whiteside has topped 40 DraftKings points in all but two games since the break. He should destroy that tonight.
Alan Williams ($6,700): Jusuf Nurkic has been a popular play since dropping 81 DraftKings points earlier this week, but he disappointed last night, and is likely to do the same tonight. I trust Williams more, who has been over 27 DraftKings points in every March game. He has shown plenty of upside as well, going over 40 twice. He is a less volatile option than Nurkic.
Honorable Mention:
Willy Hernangomez ($5,400): Although he has played just 39 minutes against the Knicks this year, he has 73 DraftKings points. His ownership rate will likely be pretty high, but he is such a bargain that I will gain separation elsewhere. He is an absolute steal for this price tonight.
Myles Turner ($5,300): There are a lot of good options at center in the early slate. It would be easy to overlook Turner and his 70 DraftKings points in two games against the Heat. He and Whiteside are going to have an entertaining, and lucrative for fantasy players, battle in the middle. There is no shame in playing both of them!
Richaun Holmes ($5,200): Holmes outplayed Jahlil Okafor yesterday, racking up a team high 24 points and falling one rebound shy of a double-double. He seems to be the safer option up front for the Sixers right now, but with so much value available at center, it’s hard to consider using him unless you are really trying to create an avant garde lineup.
Dark Horse:
Ivica Zubac ($3,800): Zubac was sent down to Reno to get a game in on Friday, but he should be back up to the Lakers today. The Sixers have struggled up front with Nerlens Noel and Ersan Ilyasova gone and Joel Embiid out. Zubac has played well in March, putting up 45.5 DraftKings points in two games. The Lakers should give him more run while he is playing well, so he is a great value option at this price.
My pick: Hernangomez(C); Whiteside(C), Turner(UTIL)
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