NCAA Tournament 2017: Which No. 1 seed likely reaches Final Four?
Assessing the chances of each No. 1 seed to reach the 2017 Final Four in Phoenix.
Championship week is over and the field for the 2017 NCAA Tournament is set, which means it’s time to endlessly analyze the bracket up until the start of the first round on Thursday.
As always, this year’s crop of one seeds — North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kansas and Villanova — are among the top candidates to win the national championship. All four turned in terrific regular seasons and have few flaws on the roster, making them popular picks to reach the Final Four in Phoenix.
However, the path is rarely that easy for the teams on the top line. The only time all No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was back in 2008, and one typically exits by the Sweet 16 or earlier.
With the 68-team field out, here’s the path each top-seeded team faces to the semifinals, in addition to their chances of reaching Phoenix.
South: North Carolina Tar Heels
Nobody’s going to be too surprised if the Tar Heels win the national title, as they look like the best team in the country at times, but appear to have the most difficult road of any Final Four team.
After taking on Texas Southern in the first round, the Tar Heels will move on to play the winner of Arkansas and Seton Hall in the 8/9 game. A potential date with Butler then awaits in the Sweet 16, and the Bulldogs have proven their ability to take down anyone with two wins over Villanova and a victory against Arizona.
The Elite Eight is where things could get particularly tricky, as the Tar Heels could have an unenviable matchup with Kentucky, UCLA or even way under-seeded Wichita State. All three teams can pile up points, and the Tar Heels have struggled defensively against top offenses like the Wildcats and Duke this season.
Friday’s ACC semifinal collapse against Duke was a perfect example of what could go wrong for the Tar Heels over the next few weeks, as the offense fell apart with Joel Berry in foul trouble and the defense was shredded on the perimeter. North Carolina deserves the benefit of the doubt until the Sweet 16, although Seton Hall’s Angel Delgado could help slow down its dominance on the offensive glass, but any game after that looks like a tough out.
The Tar Heels still have a dynamic transition offense, grab a ridiculous 41 percent of their own misses and rank third overall in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings. A big key will be Justin Jackson, as the ACC Player of the Year has been in an extended shooting slump over the past few games.
Final Four chances: 3/10