FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 13
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s eight game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday Night’s winning FanDuel NBA GPP scores stayed slightly below the season average as it only took 369 FD points to take down a big pay day! Over the first 113 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 113 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Sunday’s Picks and Pivots lineups finished well above the cash line in all formats with a final score of 311 as our balanced roster build got some big time performances from Hassan Whiteside, Kristaps Porzingis and Damian Lillard as they all eclipsed the 40 FanDuel point mark!
Monday Night’s slate is an interesting one as we have some early big time totals with equally large Vegas spreads and with only four players priced above $10k on FanDuel, which roster build will give us the best chance for a victory?
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
D’Angelo Russel ($6,700) and Jamal Murray ($3,700) Looking over this slate there is one game that jumps off the page and stands out above all the rest as the Nuggets and Lakers have a 231 combined team total which is 17 points higher than the next closest game tonight. These two teams have faced off twice already this season, putting up 248 and 236 points so the high total is warranted and one I expect will be met with ease tonight!
The one concern with this game is that Vegas has installed the Nuggets as 11 point favorites however in the two earlier season match-ups, no game was decided by more than 6 points so I am willing to overlook the blowout concern here and I will stack this game heavily in all formats tonight.
The Nuggets and Lakers have the two highest team totals on this slate as the Nuggets are expected to score 121.3 points and the Lakers 109.8 which are 11 and 6 points higher than their season averages respectively. These two teams also see the highest pace bumps of any team on the slate – in fact of the 16 teams action tonight a whopping TWELVE see a pace DECREASE tonight.
What this all amounts to for me is simply – stack this game and let everyone else chase the slow, low scoring games on this slate!
The Lakers changed up their starting lineup on Sunday night, inserting some new talent and putting players like Nick Young on the bench and all it did was solidify the minutes for the Lakers core as Russell, Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle all logged over 30 minutes of court time,
Russell just continues to log major minutes and gets to take on a Nuggets team he dropped 47 FanDuel points against his last time out on the back of 22 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds! The Nuggets are ranked 28th in DvP against opposing PG’s and with Russell priced under $7k tonight, we have massive room for profit potential!
On the other side of this game, Jameer Nelson is questionable with a hip injury which could open the door for Jamal Murray to start tonight after coach Mike Malone recently indicated he needed to play more minutes! Murray has hit 6x value in three of his last six games and that is with Nelson logging 30+ minutes a night so if Nelson does sit, Murray should crush value against a Lakers team ranked dead last in DvP to opposing PG’s.
If you need a pivot play in the same price point, you can easily look to Patty Mills ($4,000) as Tony Parker/Dejounte Murray are already ruled out for this game which should give Mills all the run he can handle tonight for the Spurs. Mills dropped 30 FanDuel points as the starter on Saturday night and gets an elite match-up against the Hawks who have struggled all year against PG’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Bradley Beal ($8,000) The other game I think we can confidently target on this slate is Minnesota/Washington which has the second highest combined team total on the slate and includes the two teams with the highest team totals outside of Denver/Los Angeles.
Beal has been a player I have been rostering quite often recently and he has seemingly delivered every single night, putting up at least 33 FD points per night in eight straight games. The price has climbed on Beal which may keep his ownership down but he is just one game removed from a monster 58 FD point outing which shows you the kind of upside he has each night.
Buddy Hield ($4,200) The second shooting guard spot is a place I am going to look for value tonight and Hield stands out as an elite point per dollar play at just above $4k. Hield has played 30+ minutes in two straight games and has dropped 25 FanDuel points per contest which would put him right at 6x value at this price point.
What I like about Hield in recent games is he is taking more shot attempts as a result of his expanded run and with 13 three-point shot attempts in his last two games, he has the ability to score points in a hurry which gives him an elite GPP ceiling at a bargain price!
UPDATE: With the news that Nicolas Batum is questionable tonight with a migraine, this could open up some fantastic value in the Charlotte back court. Jeremy Lamb ($4,000) is second on the Hornets in usage (behind Kemba Walker) with Batum off the floor and he averages nearly a fantasy point per minute. In three games as a starter this season, Lamb is averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds and 32 FanDuel points per game. If Batum is ruled out and we can get confirmation that Lamb is starting – he makes for a fantastic bargain play tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Otto Porter ($6,200) Heading back to the Wizards/Wolves games, I am looking to get additional exposure to the Wizards (without paying for John Wall) but stacking Beal and Porter tonight. Porter has been playing fantastic basketball over the last few games as he is averaging 36 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests (5.8x value) while logging 34+ minutes a night.
Porter has taken double-digit shot attempts in three straight games while shooting nearly 60% from the floor and small forward is actually one of the best places to attack Minnesota as Andrew Wiggins has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any SF on this slate!
Brandon Ingram ($4,000) Another Picks and Pivots column and another day I am rostering Mr. Brandon Ingram. So on Sunday, Ingram played another 38 minutes and dropped 24 FanDuel points (6x value again ho-hum) and sees his price drop $200?
I say it every time Ingram is on a slate where we need value but for $4k where else are you finding a guy with this many guaranteed minutes? Ingram has hit 6x value in three of his last four games and faces a Nuggets team he dropped 33 FD points against in their first meeting. I am simply locking him in tonight and moving on!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($10,000) Up until this point we have been rather strict with our salary cap and part of the reason is that I intend to spend big in the front-court tonight, starting with my man Nikola Jokic. If you are stacking this Lakers/Nuggets game you simply have to build around Jokic tonight who put up 53 FanDuel points against the Lakers in his only match-up against them this year.
Jokic returned from a two game absence and immediately went back to logging double-doubles and has now put up 40+ FD points in five straight games! The Lakers simply have nobody capable of slowing him down inside and I expect another monster night from Jokic.
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Julius Randle ($6,500) One last piece of this Denver/Lakers stack as I will double up at the Power Forward spot and lock in Julius Randle tonight! Randle, much like Russell and Ingram, is locked into 30+ minutes a night and has perhaps the highest upside from a point per dollar perspective of any player in this game.
Randle has put up 30+ FD points in three straight games and has 40+ in three of his last six games as coach Luke Walton has begun to unleash his talented forward! With Kenneth Faried OUT and Wilson Chandler questionable, the Nuggets may have to slide Danilo Gallinari to the four tonight which I believe would be a huge positive for Randle as he should be able to soak up as many boards as he can handle!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500) With so much value in the Denver/Lakers game, I am going to get my Minnesota exposure by paying up for the big fella – the big KAT! In my mind, Jokic and Towns are the two best plays on this slate and the value we have allows us to easily roster both of them tonight!
KAT has 55+ FanDuel points in three of his last seven and will take on a Wizards team that is exploitable inside as I cannot see Marcin Gortat slowing him down tonight. I expect Ivica Zibac to be a popular value play as the starting center for the Lakers tonight but I am worried about foul trouble against Jokic and I think with his popularity it makes sense to fade him and spend all the way up tonight for KAT who I suspect will outscore the next closest center by a significant margin!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!